Urmia University Geography and Regional Future Studies 2981-118X 3 1 2025 05 22 Structural analysis of urban sustainable transportation policies for the future livability of Tehran Structural analysis of urban sustainable transportation policies for the future livability of Tehran 39 55 121672 10.30466/grfs.2025.56019.1093 FA Navid Ahangari Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran 0000-0002-7941-7882 Asma Yavari Department of Urbanization, Faculty of Engineering, Kish International Campus, Tehran South Branch, Tehran, Iran. 0009-0003-4770-4064 Journal Article 2025 02 28 Urban planning and transportation significantly influence the sustainability and livability of cities, shaping the quality of life for urban residents. This study aims to structurally analyze urban sustainable transportation policies to enhance the future livability of Tehran, employing a future studies approach. The research methodology is applied in purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature. Data collection relied on library research, documentation, surveys, and the Delphi method. The statistical population comprised experts in urban studies, with a purposive sample of 70 respondents selected using the snowball sampling method. For data analysis, the MICMAC (Matrix of Cross-Impact Multiplications Applied to a Classification) method was employed to assess, rank, and categorize indicators, while Scenario Wizard was utilized to develop final scenarios. The results revealed that indicators such as reducing air pollutant emissions, enhancing equity in access to public transportation, and increasing the use of shared and eco-friendly transportation modes exert the greatest influence on other indicators. Direct and indirect impact analysis highlighted the pivotal role of reducing emissions and developing digital transportation services in improving environmental quality. Additionally, scenario analysis indicated a positive interplay of indicators in the optimistic scenario, while poor management was evident in the pessimistic scenario. Thus, the findings underscore the critical role of foresight in shaping sustainable transportation policies and offer strategic insights for policymakers to improve sustainable transportation and urban livability in Tehran Urban planning and transportation significantly influence the sustainability and livability of cities, shaping the quality of life for urban residents. This study aims to structurally analyze urban sustainable transportation policies to enhance the future livability of Tehran, employing a future studies approach. The research methodology is applied in purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature. Data collection relied on library research, documentation, surveys, and the Delphi method. The statistical population comprised experts in urban studies, with a purposive sample of 70 respondents selected using the snowball sampling method. For data analysis, the MICMAC (Matrix of Cross-Impact Multiplications Applied to a Classification) method was employed to assess, rank, and categorize indicators, while Scenario Wizard was utilized to develop final scenarios. The results revealed that indicators such as reducing air pollutant emissions, enhancing equity in access to public transportation, and increasing the use of shared and eco-friendly transportation modes exert the greatest influence on other indicators. Direct and indirect impact analysis highlighted the pivotal role of reducing emissions and developing digital transportation services in improving environmental quality. Additionally, scenario analysis indicated a positive interplay of indicators in the optimistic scenario, while poor management was evident in the pessimistic scenario. Thus, the findings underscore the critical role of foresight in shaping sustainable transportation policies and offer strategic insights for policymakers to improve sustainable transportation and urban livability in Tehran https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121672_b3c2153de6c2bab87d84ddf1b305e212.pdf