Urmia University Geography and Regional Future Studies 2981-118X 3 4 2026 02 20 Designing a smart branding model for tourist-friendly cities based on scenario-oriented foresight (Case study: Tehran) Designing a smart branding model for tourist-friendly cities based on scenario-oriented foresight (Case study: Tehran) 106 131 121822 10.30466/grfs.2025.56086.1122 FA Yazdan Shirmohammadi Department of Business Management, Faculty of Management, Economics and Accounting, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran 0000-0001-5838-7592 Mohammad Alizadeh Assistant Professor, Department of Iranian Studies, Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan, Rafsanjan, Iran 0000-0002-1043-2996 Journal Article 2025 05 13 The primary objective of this study is to design and explain an intelligent branding model for tourist cities, emphasizing foresight and sustainable development. The research adopts an exploratory mixed-method design. In the qualitative phase, data were collected using the Straussian Grounded Theory approach through semi-structured interviews with 18 experts in tourism, urban branding, and digital governance. Special emphasis was placed on the use of scenario planning as a key foresight approach in the interview protocol, enabling the modeling of potential future trajectories of urban brand transformation in the face of environmental uncertainties. In the quantitative phase, to evaluate the model's fit, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was conducted using SmartPLS software, based on survey data collected from 384 urban stakeholders. The findings identified three core components—structural factors (technological infrastructure, innovation drivers, institutional synergy), managerial factors (participatory governance, organizational agility, future orientation), and content factors (urban identity, perceived image, user experience)—as fundamental pillars of a smart tourism brand. Furthermore, contextual variables (economic, socio-cultural, political, and environmental features) and intervening factors (human, financial, cultural, and digital capital) indirectly influence the triadic branding strategies: "radical regeneration," "gradual redesign," and "status quo preservation." The final proposed model, grounded in scenario analysis and systematic interlinking of variables, offers a practical tool for urban policymakers and tourism managers to implement smart, adaptive, and future-oriented planning for urban tourism branding.  The primary objective of this study is to design and explain an intelligent branding model for tourist cities, emphasizing foresight and sustainable development. The research adopts an exploratory mixed-method design. In the qualitative phase, data were collected using the Straussian Grounded Theory approach through semi-structured interviews with 18 experts in tourism, urban branding, and digital governance. Special emphasis was placed on the use of scenario planning as a key foresight approach in the interview protocol, enabling the modeling of potential future trajectories of urban brand transformation in the face of environmental uncertainties. In the quantitative phase, to evaluate the model's fit, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was conducted using SmartPLS software, based on survey data collected from 384 urban stakeholders. The findings identified three core components—structural factors (technological infrastructure, innovation drivers, institutional synergy), managerial factors (participatory governance, organizational agility, future orientation), and content factors (urban identity, perceived image, user experience)—as fundamental pillars of a smart tourism brand. Furthermore, contextual variables (economic, socio-cultural, political, and environmental features) and intervening factors (human, financial, cultural, and digital capital) indirectly influence the triadic branding strategies: "radical regeneration," "gradual redesign," and "status quo preservation." The final proposed model, grounded in scenario analysis and systematic interlinking of variables, offers a practical tool for urban policymakers and tourism managers to implement smart, adaptive, and future-oriented planning for urban tourism branding.  https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121822_39b0ecd74718a84631399d07c2e06881.pdf