Urmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X3220250823Explaining scenarios for regenerating the historical context of Tabriz City from the perspective of factors of social innovation realizabilityExplaining scenarios for regenerating the historical context of Tabriz City from the perspective of factors of social innovation realizability11512172410.30466/grfs.2025.56174.1117FAHamid GhaffariPhD Candidate of Islamic Urban Planning, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tabriz Islamic Art University, Tabriz, Iran.0000-0003-1635-6071Ahad Nejad EbrahimiProfessor of Architecture Department, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tabriz Islamic Art University, Tabriz, Iran.0000-0001-6025-1942Morteza MirgholamiProfessor of Urban Planning Department, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tabriz Islamic Art University, Tabriz, Iran.0000-0001-7824-7255Journal Article20250506The importance of social innovation as a new approach in the field of theoretical and practical research for successfully facing various challenges has brought it to the forefront of urban development. By finding the best ways to solve existing challenges, social innovation can take an effective step in solving the problems of worn-out urban contexts. In this regard, the most important goal of this research is to present scenarios for regenerating the historical context of Tabriz from the perspective of the factors of social innovation realizability. This research is applied-developmental in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of research method. Also, library-documentary studies have been used to compile the research literature, and field studies have been used to evaluate the scope of the research. Based on the results of the research, four factors: "quality of urban governance", "quality of local economy", "quality of urban research", and "quality of social relations and power" are the most important factors of realizability of social innovation in urban regeneration. Also, based on the results obtained from the MicMac software, two scenarios were developed in the historical context of Tabriz, Iran: "optimistic and desirable" and "pessimistic and critical". In the first scenario, many of the problems of the historical context of Tabriz have been solved by using the social innovation approach. Satisfaction and high quality of life are important outputs of this scenario. In the second scenario, the reuse of old and inefficient approaches to urban regeneration has caused many of the problems of the historical context to remain unresolved. Dissatisfaction and low quality of life are outputs of this scenario. Each of the developed scenarios indicates the future paths for planning and managing the various challenges of the historical context of Tabriz.The importance of social innovation as a new approach in the field of theoretical and practical research for successfully facing various challenges has brought it to the forefront of urban development. By finding the best ways to solve existing challenges, social innovation can take an effective step in solving the problems of worn-out urban contexts. In this regard, the most important goal of this research is to present scenarios for regenerating the historical context of Tabriz from the perspective of the factors of social innovation realizability. This research is applied-developmental in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of research method. Also, library-documentary studies have been used to compile the research literature, and field studies have been used to evaluate the scope of the research. Based on the results of the research, four factors: "quality of urban governance", "quality of local economy", "quality of urban research", and "quality of social relations and power" are the most important factors of realizability of social innovation in urban regeneration. Also, based on the results obtained from the MicMac software, two scenarios were developed in the historical context of Tabriz, Iran: "optimistic and desirable" and "pessimistic and critical". In the first scenario, many of the problems of the historical context of Tabriz have been solved by using the social innovation approach. Satisfaction and high quality of life are important outputs of this scenario. In the second scenario, the reuse of old and inefficient approaches to urban regeneration has caused many of the problems of the historical context to remain unresolved. Dissatisfaction and low quality of life are outputs of this scenario. Each of the developed scenarios indicates the future paths for planning and managing the various challenges of the historical context of Tabriz.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121724_7528a83331a88dad0cfa3ebb3db0c627.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X3220250823Future study of socio-economic indicators affecting the resilience of Region 6 of Shiraz metropolis in the face of floodingFuture study of socio-economic indicators affecting the resilience of Region 6 of Shiraz metropolis in the face of flooding163312168410.30466/grfs.2025.55894.1085FAMohammadAli RamYarUrban Planning Department, Faculty of Urban Planning, Apadna Non-Profit Institution, Shiraz, IranAli ShamsoddiniDepartment of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran0000-0001-9757-4331Journal Article20250114Natural hazards such as floods have always posed a threat to communities. However, in recent years, community vulnerability has increased. Floods, as one of the most common and destructive natural disasters, account for 30% of global fatalities and 33% of global economic losses, causing damage to sectors such as agriculture, roads, and housing. Urban resilience refers to the ability of cities to cope with risks and return to their original state after disasters, influenced by economic, social, and managerial factors. This study aims to examine the economic and social indicators influencing the flood resilience of Shiraz city. The research employs a descriptive-analytical and applied method, with the statistical population consisting of experts familiar with urban planning indicators. Due to the specialized nature of the topic, a snowball sampling method was used, and data were collected through library sources and field studies. The primary research tool was a questionnaire based on previous studies and the theoretical framework, validated by the opinions of 30 urban experts, while its reliability was assessed by distributing 30 questionnaires. Data analysis was conducted using descriptive and inferential statistics. The results indicate that the social and economic resilience of Shiraz city against floods is at a moderate to slightly above moderate level. Indicators such as risk awareness and access to emergency services are at an average level, while public support and trust show a more favorable status. In the economic dimension, all indicators except for the presence of insurance are at a moderate level, with economic factors having the greatest influence on the city's resilience. Additionally, access to communication infrastructure and emergency services plays a crucial role in improving urban resilience.Natural hazards such as floods have always posed a threat to communities. However, in recent years, community vulnerability has increased. Floods, as one of the most common and destructive natural disasters, account for 30% of global fatalities and 33% of global economic losses, causing damage to sectors such as agriculture, roads, and housing. Urban resilience refers to the ability of cities to cope with risks and return to their original state after disasters, influenced by economic, social, and managerial factors. This study aims to examine the economic and social indicators influencing the flood resilience of Shiraz city. The research employs a descriptive-analytical and applied method, with the statistical population consisting of experts familiar with urban planning indicators. Due to the specialized nature of the topic, a snowball sampling method was used, and data were collected through library sources and field studies. The primary research tool was a questionnaire based on previous studies and the theoretical framework, validated by the opinions of 30 urban experts, while its reliability was assessed by distributing 30 questionnaires. Data analysis was conducted using descriptive and inferential statistics. The results indicate that the social and economic resilience of Shiraz city against floods is at a moderate to slightly above moderate level. Indicators such as risk awareness and access to emergency services are at an average level, while public support and trust show a more favorable status. In the economic dimension, all indicators except for the presence of insurance are at a moderate level, with economic factors having the greatest influence on the city's resilience. Additionally, access to communication infrastructure and emergency services plays a crucial role in improving urban resilience.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121684_23c5da1071cfbf9545eb58caa3ccf4b9.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X3220250823A future-oriented analysis of the impact of tax fairness and complexity on the economic welfare of Iran’s provincesA future-oriented analysis of the impact of tax fairness and complexity on the economic welfare of Iran’s provinces345112172510.30466/grfs.2025.55855.1078FAMohammad Gaffary FardAssociate Professor, Department of Economic Sciences, Faculty of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Ahlul Bayt International University, Tehran, Iran.0000-0002-7285-1897Mohammad Yunos RasaMaster's degree student, Department of Economic Sciences, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Ahlul Bayt International University, Tehran, Iran.Journal Article20250121Today, taxation is regarded as one of the vital sources of government revenue. In developing countries, including Iran, the government’s dependence on oil revenues means that tax income constitutes only a minor portion of total revenue. A significant obstacle for governments is tax evasion, which is influenced by various factors such as tax complexity, perceived fairness, and inflation. This research investigates the foresight of tax fairness and complexity on economic welfare in Iran’s provinces from 2011 to 2020, employing a fully modified least squares method. The findings reveal that tax fairness has a significant and positive impact on the economic welfare of Iran’s provinces. Specifically, a one percent increase in tax fairness correlates with a 0.026 percent rise in economic welfare. Conversely, tax complexity exhibits a negative and significant relationship with economic welfare; a one percent increase in tax complexity leads to a 0.024 percent decline in economic welfare. Furthermore, the results indicate that inflation has a negative relationship with economic welfare, while government size and per capita production show a positive and significant relationship with the economic Welfare of Iran’s provinces. Based on these findings, it is advised that the government adopt policies such as simplifying tax laws, lowering tax collection costs, establishing a comprehensive tax system, and reforming the tax framework to enhance the welfare status of Iran's provinces in the future.Today, taxation is regarded as one of the vital sources of government revenue. In developing countries, including Iran, the government’s dependence on oil revenues means that tax income constitutes only a minor portion of total revenue. A significant obstacle for governments is tax evasion, which is influenced by various factors such as tax complexity, perceived fairness, and inflation. This research investigates the foresight of tax fairness and complexity on economic welfare in Iran’s provinces from 2011 to 2020, employing a fully modified least squares method. The findings reveal that tax fairness has a significant and positive impact on the economic welfare of Iran’s provinces. Specifically, a one percent increase in tax fairness correlates with a 0.026 percent rise in economic welfare. Conversely, tax complexity exhibits a negative and significant relationship with economic welfare; a one percent increase in tax complexity leads to a 0.024 percent decline in economic welfare. Furthermore, the results indicate that inflation has a negative relationship with economic welfare, while government size and per capita production show a positive and significant relationship with the economic Welfare of Iran’s provinces. Based on these findings, it is advised that the government adopt policies such as simplifying tax laws, lowering tax collection costs, establishing a comprehensive tax system, and reforming the tax framework to enhance the welfare status of Iran's provinces in the future.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121725_9f40958d4bf9944d85866993c5fc60e8.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X3220250823The future studies of migration in East Azerbaijan province with a scenario-based approachThe future studies of migration in East Azerbaijan province with a scenario-based approach526812172610.30466/grfs.2025.55937.1087FAAbolfazl GhanbariProfessor, Dept. of Geographical Research, University of Tabriz.0000-0001-6225-0433Davoud BehboudiProfessor, Dept. of Economic Development and Planning, University of Tabriz.0000-0002-5893-3271Tahereh Alsadat MousaviM. A. in Land Use Planning. University of Tabriz.Journal Article20250202Migration, as one of the most significant demographic phenomena, plays a decisive role in shaping social, economic, and geographical structures. In recent decades, large-scale population movements driven by diverse factors, including economic, environmental, and social causes, have become one of the primary challenges for population management and regional planning. These challenges have heightened the necessity for foresight analysis and the development of effective strategies to mitigate adverse impacts and capitalize on opportunities. This study focuses on migration forecasting in East Azerbaijan Province and aims to develop actionable scenarios for optimal management and planning. The research is applied and descriptive-analytical in nature, employing a futures studies approach. Data were collected through documentary and survey methods and analyzed using Delphi techniques, the Cross-Impact Matrix, and Scenario Wizard software. The statistical population includes 20 experts in urban and regional planning within the province. The findings identify 42 factors influencing migration in the province, among which 13 key drivers were determined using the MICMAC method. These key drivers include high unemployment rates, lack of sustainable water resources, rural depopulation, and inadequate road networks. The study further developed three scenarios- strong, weak, and plausible- to predict the future of migration in the region. The final analysis revealed that plausible scenarios, due to their balance between feasibility and desirability, serve as the basis for planning. Achieving these scenarios requires a thorough understanding of key drivers and the implementation of targeted measures. Recommendations include enhancing infrastructure, addressing economic challenges, and promoting sustainable development to improve migration-related conditions in East Azerbaijan Province. These steps are crucial for aligning planning strategies with future migration trends and ensuring balanced regional development.Migration, as one of the most significant demographic phenomena, plays a decisive role in shaping social, economic, and geographical structures. In recent decades, large-scale population movements driven by diverse factors, including economic, environmental, and social causes, have become one of the primary challenges for population management and regional planning. These challenges have heightened the necessity for foresight analysis and the development of effective strategies to mitigate adverse impacts and capitalize on opportunities. This study focuses on migration forecasting in East Azerbaijan Province and aims to develop actionable scenarios for optimal management and planning. The research is applied and descriptive-analytical in nature, employing a futures studies approach. Data were collected through documentary and survey methods and analyzed using Delphi techniques, the Cross-Impact Matrix, and Scenario Wizard software. The statistical population includes 20 experts in urban and regional planning within the province. The findings identify 42 factors influencing migration in the province, among which 13 key drivers were determined using the MICMAC method. These key drivers include high unemployment rates, lack of sustainable water resources, rural depopulation, and inadequate road networks. The study further developed three scenarios- strong, weak, and plausible- to predict the future of migration in the region. The final analysis revealed that plausible scenarios, due to their balance between feasibility and desirability, serve as the basis for planning. Achieving these scenarios requires a thorough understanding of key drivers and the implementation of targeted measures. Recommendations include enhancing infrastructure, addressing economic challenges, and promoting sustainable development to improve migration-related conditions in East Azerbaijan Province. These steps are crucial for aligning planning strategies with future migration trends and ensuring balanced regional development.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121726_20384c6042746eb5b8c0d2654291db12.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X3220250823Investigating the effects of access to urban facilities and services on the sense of place attachment in suburban rural settlements of Ahvaz (Case study: Umm Al-Tamir Village)Investigating the effects of access to urban facilities and services on the sense of place attachment in suburban rural settlements of Ahvaz (Case study: Umm Al-Tamir Village)699112172710.30466/grfs.2025.56137.1109FAZahra SoltaniDepartment of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran0000-0001-5876-0473Majid GoodarziDepartment of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran0000-0001-7982-8027Zahra EskandariDepartment of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, IranJournal Article20250423Today, many individuals frequently relocate and change their living environment due to a lack of attachment to their surroundings. One of the main reasons for this phenomenon is the absence of a sense of place attachment among residents. Developing a sense of place attachment enables individuals to gradually establish a deeper connection with their living environment and ultimately perceive themselves as an integral part of it. This study examines the effects of access to urban facilities and services on the sense of place attachment in the suburban rural settlements of Ahvaz, focusing on the case of Umm Al-Tamir Village, Ahvaz. The research is applied in nature and adopts a descriptive-analytical approach. Data collection was conducted through both fieldwork and library studies. The sampling method was random, and the statistical population consisted of the residents of the studied village. Using Cochran's formula, a sample size of 356 individuals was determined. Data analysis was conducted using quantitative multi-criteria decision-making methods, employing the MARCOS model to rank urban services and facilities based on place attachment components. Additionally, Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to test the hypotheses via SPSS software (version 26). The results indicate a significant and positive relationship between access to urban services and the sense of place attachment in the studied area. Basic infrastructure, healthcare services, and educational facilities had the most substantial impact on residents' sense of place attachment. These findings underscore the importance of balanced development of urban services and facilities and the creation of interactive spaces in future planning for suburban rural settlements, particularly Umm Al-Tamir Village. It is recommended that policymakers and planners focus on these factors to strengthen the sense of place attachment, improve the quality of life, and ultimately contribute to the sustainable development of these areasToday, many individuals frequently relocate and change their living environment due to a lack of attachment to their surroundings. One of the main reasons for this phenomenon is the absence of a sense of place attachment among residents. Developing a sense of place attachment enables individuals to gradually establish a deeper connection with their living environment and ultimately perceive themselves as an integral part of it. This study examines the effects of access to urban facilities and services on the sense of place attachment in the suburban rural settlements of Ahvaz, focusing on the case of Umm Al-Tamir Village, Ahvaz. The research is applied in nature and adopts a descriptive-analytical approach. Data collection was conducted through both fieldwork and library studies. The sampling method was random, and the statistical population consisted of the residents of the studied village. Using Cochran's formula, a sample size of 356 individuals was determined. Data analysis was conducted using quantitative multi-criteria decision-making methods, employing the MARCOS model to rank urban services and facilities based on place attachment components. Additionally, Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to test the hypotheses via SPSS software (version 26). The results indicate a significant and positive relationship between access to urban services and the sense of place attachment in the studied area. Basic infrastructure, healthcare services, and educational facilities had the most substantial impact on residents' sense of place attachment. These findings underscore the importance of balanced development of urban services and facilities and the creation of interactive spaces in future planning for suburban rural settlements, particularly Umm Al-Tamir Village. It is recommended that policymakers and planners focus on these factors to strengthen the sense of place attachment, improve the quality of life, and ultimately contribute to the sustainable development of these areashttps://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121727_af0d72da60b849796bfebb95e656c491.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X3220250823Understanding short-term and long-term trends in Iran's tourism comfort climateUnderstanding short-term and long-term trends in Iran's tourism comfort climate9211012171710.30466/grfs.2025.56228.1127FAKamran SheikhzadehDepartment of Geography, Na. C., Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.0009-0003-9821-513XAmir GandomkarDepartment of Geography, Na. C., Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.0000-0002-9344-7607Alireza AbbasiDepartment of Geography, Na. C., Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.Journal Article20250526The relationship between climate change and natural, social and economic phenomena has been discussed from different dimensions for a relatively long time. Over the past 15 years, more focused studies have begun to emerge. In particular, tourism as an international social phenomenon has recently received much attention in climate change studies. The present study is classified as applied research (developmental-strategic type) based on its purpose and is a descriptive-analytical research in terms of methodology. Determining the climate of tourism comfort in 2030 and 2050 requires future research, which uses data predicted by reputable scientific centers and is based on global climate change scenarios. Considering the dispersion of the data, the samples were selected to cover all climatic regions of Iran. The SSP1-2.6 scenario and the CanESM5-CanOE (Canada) model were selected from the Sixth IPCC Assessment Report (CMIP6), and temperature, relative humidity, and wind data were obtained from the Copernicus website. Calculations were performed using Riemann software and then the results were plotted as a map using GIS software. Then, they were determined based on the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) model and zoned based on location. The results show that in total, over a 35-year horizon (2015-2030), Iran's tourism comfort climate faces five general categories of changes: latitudinal-environmental changes, sinusoidal changes, severe negative changes, severe positive changes, and no noticeable changes.The relationship between climate change and natural, social and economic phenomena has been discussed from different dimensions for a relatively long time. Over the past 15 years, more focused studies have begun to emerge. In particular, tourism as an international social phenomenon has recently received much attention in climate change studies. The present study is classified as applied research (developmental-strategic type) based on its purpose and is a descriptive-analytical research in terms of methodology. Determining the climate of tourism comfort in 2030 and 2050 requires future research, which uses data predicted by reputable scientific centers and is based on global climate change scenarios. Considering the dispersion of the data, the samples were selected to cover all climatic regions of Iran. The SSP1-2.6 scenario and the CanESM5-CanOE (Canada) model were selected from the Sixth IPCC Assessment Report (CMIP6), and temperature, relative humidity, and wind data were obtained from the Copernicus website. Calculations were performed using Riemann software and then the results were plotted as a map using GIS software. Then, they were determined based on the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) model and zoned based on location. The results show that in total, over a 35-year horizon (2015-2030), Iran's tourism comfort climate faces five general categories of changes: latitudinal-environmental changes, sinusoidal changes, severe negative changes, severe positive changes, and no noticeable changes.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121717_6888da4563bb33cd1d0fd2ecfa5d05ab.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X3220250823Foresighting macro trends in the automotive industry: Analyzing technological, social, and economic transformations and their impacts on the regional future of the automotive sector using the Fuzzy Screening MethodForesighting macro trends in the automotive industry: Analyzing technological, social, and economic transformations and their impacts on the regional future of the automotive sector using the Fuzzy Screening Method11113112172810.30466/grfs.2025.55998.1088FASafar FazliProfessor, Department of Futures Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.0000-0001-5744-9595Saeed RezaeiPh.D. in Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.0009-0009-7151-0239Journal Article20250220The automotive industry is undergoing significant transformations due to rapid technological, social, economic, and environmental changes, along with their regional implications. Accordingly, this study aims to identify, prioritize, and analyze the key macro trends affecting the future of the automotive industry over a ten-year horizon across different geographical contexts. This applied research follows a descriptive approach and was conducted qualitatively using the Fuzzy screening method, which serves as a descriptive-survey analytical tool to address complexities and uncertainties in decision-making processes. The statistical population consisted of 17 experts in the fields of the automotive industry and foresight studies. Their opinions served as the primary data for analysis. Data were analyzed using optimistic and pessimistic fuzzy matrices, and the combined results were used to rank the macro trends impacting the automotive sector. Through library and documentary research, as well as semi-structured interviews, six major trends were identified and prioritized based on five criteria extracted from relevant literature and documents. The results indicate that transformation in transportation technologies holds the highest priority among the identified trends due to its direct impact on reducing environmental pollution, enhancing energy efficiency, and advancing intelligent transportation systems. Social and cultural changes, along with advancements in manufacturing technologies and materials, ranked second, as they are shaping new demands for clean and innovative products in various regions. Innovation in business models ranked third, reflecting the importance of evolving service structures and value chains, particularly in diverse geographical settings. Finally, economic and commercial developments, as well as safety and security considerations, were ranked fourth and fifth, respectively. These findings offer a clear picture of the prioritization of influential macro trends shaping the future of the automotive industry at the regional level and can serve as a foundation for developing localized strategies by policymakers and industry stakeholders.The automotive industry is undergoing significant transformations due to rapid technological, social, economic, and environmental changes, along with their regional implications. Accordingly, this study aims to identify, prioritize, and analyze the key macro trends affecting the future of the automotive industry over a ten-year horizon across different geographical contexts. This applied research follows a descriptive approach and was conducted qualitatively using the Fuzzy screening method, which serves as a descriptive-survey analytical tool to address complexities and uncertainties in decision-making processes. The statistical population consisted of 17 experts in the fields of the automotive industry and foresight studies. Their opinions served as the primary data for analysis. Data were analyzed using optimistic and pessimistic fuzzy matrices, and the combined results were used to rank the macro trends impacting the automotive sector. Through library and documentary research, as well as semi-structured interviews, six major trends were identified and prioritized based on five criteria extracted from relevant literature and documents. The results indicate that transformation in transportation technologies holds the highest priority among the identified trends due to its direct impact on reducing environmental pollution, enhancing energy efficiency, and advancing intelligent transportation systems. Social and cultural changes, along with advancements in manufacturing technologies and materials, ranked second, as they are shaping new demands for clean and innovative products in various regions. Innovation in business models ranked third, reflecting the importance of evolving service structures and value chains, particularly in diverse geographical settings. Finally, economic and commercial developments, as well as safety and security considerations, were ranked fourth and fifth, respectively. These findings offer a clear picture of the prioritization of influential macro trends shaping the future of the automotive industry at the regional level and can serve as a foundation for developing localized strategies by policymakers and industry stakeholders.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121728_819ff69a35ecf6e695b812331cf98877.pdf