Urmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X3320251122Identifying and analyzing future-oriented strategies for tourism development in the Caspian region (Iran and Russia): A mixed-methods approachIdentifying and analyzing future-oriented strategies for tourism development in the Caspian region (Iran and Russia): A mixed-methods approach11812177810.30466/grfs.2025.56333.1137FAHojat SadeghiAssistant professor, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran0009-0006-5360-8855Rahman ZandiAssociate Professor, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran0009-0001-9785-6432Farhad JavanAssistant professor, Department of Tourism Management, Faculty of Cultural Heritage, Handicrafts and Tourism, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran0000-0001-5238-3160Masoud TaghvaeiProfessor, Department of Human Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran0000-0001-5486-5972Hugo BautistaKazan Federal University, Kazan, Russia0000-0002-7430-706XJournal Article20250707Tourism, as a major driving force, can serve as a foundation for regional development. Certain regions possess unique advantages due to their geographical and strategic positions; however, for various reasons, they have not been able to effectively capitalize on their tourism potential. The Caspian Sea basin serves as a prominent example of such regions. Despite its considerable potential, the countries bordering the Caspian Sea have not fully utilized their tourism capacities. Therefore, adopting effective strategies for the utilization and development of tourism in this region is essential and emphasized in this study. The research methodology is descriptive-analytical, employing a mixed-methods approach (qualitative-quantitative) based on survey data collection. The statistical population consists of tourism experts and professionals. Data collection tools included interviews and questionnaires. A total of 18 participants were selected for interviews through theoretical saturation, and 116 individuals were chosen for the survey using the snowball sampling method. In the qualitative phase, 26 initial concepts were identified and categorized into seven main strategic themes: marketing, advertising, and media strategies; facilitation of diplomacy and regional policy-making; development of tourism infrastructure and services; strengthening local participation and leveraging indigenous capacities; product-oriented strategies and diversification of tourism types; managerial, organizational, and sustainability strategies; and finally, integrated and transnational regional tourism development. The validation of the proposed strategies through statistical testing yielded a significance level below 0.05 and an average score of 4.028, confirming their acceptance. Additionally, the results of the Friedman test indicated that the strategy of strengthening local participation and leveraging indigenous capacities ranked highest with an average rank of 5.13, making it the most prominent strategy. In conclusion, the Caspian Sea basin possesses diverse tourism potentials that can be effectively planned and developed through diplomacy, local engagement, and integrated regional development.Tourism, as a major driving force, can serve as a foundation for regional development. Certain regions possess unique advantages due to their geographical and strategic positions; however, for various reasons, they have not been able to effectively capitalize on their tourism potential. The Caspian Sea basin serves as a prominent example of such regions. Despite its considerable potential, the countries bordering the Caspian Sea have not fully utilized their tourism capacities. Therefore, adopting effective strategies for the utilization and development of tourism in this region is essential and emphasized in this study. The research methodology is descriptive-analytical, employing a mixed-methods approach (qualitative-quantitative) based on survey data collection. The statistical population consists of tourism experts and professionals. Data collection tools included interviews and questionnaires. A total of 18 participants were selected for interviews through theoretical saturation, and 116 individuals were chosen for the survey using the snowball sampling method. In the qualitative phase, 26 initial concepts were identified and categorized into seven main strategic themes: marketing, advertising, and media strategies; facilitation of diplomacy and regional policy-making; development of tourism infrastructure and services; strengthening local participation and leveraging indigenous capacities; product-oriented strategies and diversification of tourism types; managerial, organizational, and sustainability strategies; and finally, integrated and transnational regional tourism development. The validation of the proposed strategies through statistical testing yielded a significance level below 0.05 and an average score of 4.028, confirming their acceptance. Additionally, the results of the Friedman test indicated that the strategy of strengthening local participation and leveraging indigenous capacities ranked highest with an average rank of 5.13, making it the most prominent strategy. In conclusion, the Caspian Sea basin possesses diverse tourism potentials that can be effectively planned and developed through diplomacy, local engagement, and integrated regional development.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121778_d6df5836db82aeb6f1acf762b02ea8a6.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X3320251122Site selection of riverside parks around the Sufi-Chay river, MaraghehSite selection of riverside parks around the Sufi-Chay river, Maragheh194012177910.30466/grfs.2025.56075.1103FAHoushang SarvarAssociate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Humanities, Maragheh University, Maragheh, Iran.0009-0000-8944-3796Mahdiyeh Mirzaei QeshlaqDepartment of Geography, Faculty of Humanities; Maragheh University, Maragheh, IranManijheh LalepourAssociate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Humanities, Maragheh University, Maragheh, Iran.0009-0007-9188-5914Journal Article20250409The construction of riverside parks is a fundamental step towards protecting urban rivers. These types of parks have multiple ecological, social and economic functions and play a significant role in increasing the sustainability of cities. In the present study, the feasibility of constructing riverside parks along the Sufi-Chay River in Maragheh was examined. In line with the research objectives, AHP and SWOT models were used. The analytic hierarchy process showed that land use criteria with a coefficient of 0.331 and land ownership with a coefficient of 0.231 are the most important effective criteria in site selection of Sufi-Chay riverside parks. More than 3.4 percent of the region with an area of about 30.9 hectares is located in a class with very high suitability for the construction of riverside parks. A major part of these areas (about 21 hectares) is located in the southern part of the Maragheh suburb. This site was proposed for the construction of a riverside park in the south of Maragheh city and between Pehrabad and the railway. The mentioned site has favorable conditions for the construction of a riverside park due to a set of factors. In this regard, we can mention the large width of the floodplain, the significant extent of the riverside lands, public ownership, proper access to the river, favorable access to the main communication networks and the possibility of ecological connection with the green infrastructure along the Sufi-chay River. The assessment of the proposed site using the SWOT model also showed that the strengths and opportunities of this site far outweigh the weaknesses and threats. Accordingly, the construction of riverside Park on the proposed site can bring positive results such as the protection of the Sufi-Chay River, ecological connectivity, boost of social interactions, green space justice, and tourism promotion.The construction of riverside parks is a fundamental step towards protecting urban rivers. These types of parks have multiple ecological, social and economic functions and play a significant role in increasing the sustainability of cities. In the present study, the feasibility of constructing riverside parks along the Sufi-Chay River in Maragheh was examined. In line with the research objectives, AHP and SWOT models were used. The analytic hierarchy process showed that land use criteria with a coefficient of 0.331 and land ownership with a coefficient of 0.231 are the most important effective criteria in site selection of Sufi-Chay riverside parks. More than 3.4 percent of the region with an area of about 30.9 hectares is located in a class with very high suitability for the construction of riverside parks. A major part of these areas (about 21 hectares) is located in the southern part of the Maragheh suburb. This site was proposed for the construction of a riverside park in the south of Maragheh city and between Pehrabad and the railway. The mentioned site has favorable conditions for the construction of a riverside park due to a set of factors. In this regard, we can mention the large width of the floodplain, the significant extent of the riverside lands, public ownership, proper access to the river, favorable access to the main communication networks and the possibility of ecological connection with the green infrastructure along the Sufi-chay River. The assessment of the proposed site using the SWOT model also showed that the strengths and opportunities of this site far outweigh the weaknesses and threats. Accordingly, the construction of riverside Park on the proposed site can bring positive results such as the protection of the Sufi-Chay River, ecological connectivity, boost of social interactions, green space justice, and tourism promotion.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121779_444a79d84778305713aea4ed14ad1129.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X3320251122Analyzing and explaining Russia's strategy for establishing order in the South Caucasus with a future-oriented perspectiveAnalyzing and explaining Russia's strategy for establishing order in the South Caucasus with a future-oriented perspective416112178710.30466/grfs.2025.56216.1125FAHamid DorjPhD student in International Relations, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran0000-0003-3343-9485Journal Article20250521After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia, with the aim of preserving its territorial integrity and preventing another collapse by adopting strategies and resorting to various means, has taken steps to establish military bases and expand political influence in the countries of the South Caucasus. Also, Russia, by investing and being present in energy equations and strategic corridors in the region, is now acting as a superior and influential power in the South Caucasus. In the meantime, Russian officials have sought to maintain their sphere of influence in the layers of power in the South Caucasus, which, while preserving the Kremlin's share of the power structure in the region, will contribute significantly to the development of its ambitions and gaining a hegemonic position on the Eurasian chessboard. The present study, with a futures-oriented approach, seeks to answer the main question: What strategy is Russia pursuing for establishing order in the South Caucasus? The hypothesis that can be put forward is that after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the decline of Russian power in the South Caucasus, the Kremlin, with the aim of maintaining its territorial sovereignty through operations to establish order and create political, economic, cultural, and military arrangements, has gained significant influence in the South Caucasus, which has made Russia the dominant power in the region. In the meantime, Moscow authorities are trying to maintain their influence and hegemonic power in the South Caucasus, which, while securing and guaranteeing their interests in the region, allows Russia to influence the decisions of regional governments and thereby preserve the future order and equations of the South Caucasus in favor of the Kremlin and to the detriment of competing actors. This research is qualitative in nature, and in terms of its implementation method, it is of a descriptive-explanatory type that is written with a futures-oriented approach. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia, with the aim of preserving its territorial integrity and preventing another collapse by adopting strategies and resorting to various means, has taken steps to establish military bases and expand political influence in the countries of the South Caucasus. Also, Russia, by investing and being present in energy equations and strategic corridors in the region, is now acting as a superior and influential power in the South Caucasus. In the meantime, Russian officials have sought to maintain their sphere of influence in the layers of power in the South Caucasus, which, while preserving the Kremlin's share of the power structure in the region, will contribute significantly to the development of its ambitions and gaining a hegemonic position on the Eurasian chessboard. The present study, with a futures-oriented approach, seeks to answer the main question: What strategy is Russia pursuing for establishing order in the South Caucasus? The hypothesis that can be put forward is that after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the decline of Russian power in the South Caucasus, the Kremlin, with the aim of maintaining its territorial sovereignty through operations to establish order and create political, economic, cultural, and military arrangements, has gained significant influence in the South Caucasus, which has made Russia the dominant power in the region. In the meantime, Moscow authorities are trying to maintain their influence and hegemonic power in the South Caucasus, which, while securing and guaranteeing their interests in the region, allows Russia to influence the decisions of regional governments and thereby preserve the future order and equations of the South Caucasus in favor of the Kremlin and to the detriment of competing actors. This research is qualitative in nature, and in terms of its implementation method, it is of a descriptive-explanatory type that is written with a futures-oriented approach. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121787_25644e7fb7f807cc98e1bd28661efaed.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X3320251122An analysis of future strategies influencing the development of industrial cities in Iran (Case Study: Bandar Mahshahr City)An analysis of future strategies influencing the development of industrial cities in Iran (Case Study: Bandar Mahshahr City)627912178810.30466/grfs.2025.56271.1132FAArezo ZamaniCandidate of Geography and urban planning, Mahshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mahshahr, Iran.Sadegh BesharatifarAssociate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Mahshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mahshahr, Iran.0000-0003-0577-2619Journal Article20250612In the era of rapid global transformations, industrial cities play a key role in achieving economic growth and spatial development. However, environmental, social, and technological complexities have highlighted the necessity of revising traditional approaches to the development of these cities. Future-oriented strategies serve as an efficient tool, enabling the identification of key drivers and the design of sustainable scenarios for the development of industrial cities. Therefore, the present study sought to provide positive solutions for managers and officials regarding the urban development of Bandar Mahshahr. This was done using a new strategic mindset and an inside-out perspective to identify internal resources and capabilities, macro-environmental factors, and positive attributes, in addition to evaluating current functions. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of data collection, utilizing questionnaires as the data gathering tool. The Meta-SWOT model and PESTEL analysis were used for data analysis. The research findings indicate that Bandar Mahshahr City's urban development resources and capabilities possess strategic value and play distinct roles in advancing long-term objectives. The key factors include the Petrochemical Special Economic Zone, strategic access to the Persian Gulf, physical development capacity, commercial jetties, and oil and gas resources. The city's development is subject to macro-environmental variables beyond the control of urban management, such as economic fluctuations, climate change, sanctions, and geopolitical threats. This situation necessitates flexible, resilient, and multidimensional strategies to maintain the dynamism of urban development.In the era of rapid global transformations, industrial cities play a key role in achieving economic growth and spatial development. However, environmental, social, and technological complexities have highlighted the necessity of revising traditional approaches to the development of these cities. Future-oriented strategies serve as an efficient tool, enabling the identification of key drivers and the design of sustainable scenarios for the development of industrial cities. Therefore, the present study sought to provide positive solutions for managers and officials regarding the urban development of Bandar Mahshahr. This was done using a new strategic mindset and an inside-out perspective to identify internal resources and capabilities, macro-environmental factors, and positive attributes, in addition to evaluating current functions. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of data collection, utilizing questionnaires as the data gathering tool. The Meta-SWOT model and PESTEL analysis were used for data analysis. The research findings indicate that Bandar Mahshahr City's urban development resources and capabilities possess strategic value and play distinct roles in advancing long-term objectives. The key factors include the Petrochemical Special Economic Zone, strategic access to the Persian Gulf, physical development capacity, commercial jetties, and oil and gas resources. The city's development is subject to macro-environmental variables beyond the control of urban management, such as economic fluctuations, climate change, sanctions, and geopolitical threats. This situation necessitates flexible, resilient, and multidimensional strategies to maintain the dynamism of urban development.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121788_bbe950f250298a433573c15424574d2f.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X3320251122Identifying and analyzing the indicators affecting urban flooding with a futures research approach (Case study: Talesh city)Identifying and analyzing the indicators affecting urban flooding with a futures research approach (Case study: Talesh city)809412178910.30466/grfs.2025.56169.1120FABehnam BagheriDepartment of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran.0000-0001-6601-1894Seyedeh Freya AghayriDepartment of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Science, Islamic Azad University, Ardabil, IranJournal Article20250511Flooding is one of the hazards that has caused a lot of damage in different regions in recent years. Flooding is a devastating and destructive factor and is one of the hazards that causes a lot of financial and human losses every year. The aim of this research is to identify and analyze the key indicators that affect urban flooding in Talesh city. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method with a futures research approach. The Delphi technique, as well as the documentary and field survey methods, were used to collect information. The statistical population of this study was 25 urban experts who were selected based on snowball sampling. Among the 29 main variables that were selected by experts using the Delphi method, based on the experts' scoring in the interaction matrix and entering these scores into the MINMAC software, the results showed that 9 factors were identified as key factors and effective indicators for causing floods in Talesh city, which are: precipitation, vegetation, tree cutting, creation of agricultural lands, development of planning at the county level, county management, plowing in the direction of the slope, development of settlements in the river area, and population density. It is important to note that the creation of agricultural lands based on cutting trees and destroying vegetation and increasing population, and other important factors, in addition to heavy rainfall in the region, are the main cause of flooding in Talesh city.Flooding is one of the hazards that has caused a lot of damage in different regions in recent years. Flooding is a devastating and destructive factor and is one of the hazards that causes a lot of financial and human losses every year. The aim of this research is to identify and analyze the key indicators that affect urban flooding in Talesh city. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method with a futures research approach. The Delphi technique, as well as the documentary and field survey methods, were used to collect information. The statistical population of this study was 25 urban experts who were selected based on snowball sampling. Among the 29 main variables that were selected by experts using the Delphi method, based on the experts' scoring in the interaction matrix and entering these scores into the MINMAC software, the results showed that 9 factors were identified as key factors and effective indicators for causing floods in Talesh city, which are: precipitation, vegetation, tree cutting, creation of agricultural lands, development of planning at the county level, county management, plowing in the direction of the slope, development of settlements in the river area, and population density. It is important to note that the creation of agricultural lands based on cutting trees and destroying vegetation and increasing population, and other important factors, in addition to heavy rainfall in the region, are the main cause of flooding in Talesh city.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121789_8ad663ef5b6383bc3a31ef084af8450f.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X3320251122Identification of key drivers influencing the University Innovation District using a futures studies approach (Case study: Islamic Azad University of Isfahan; Khorasgan Branch)Identification of key drivers influencing the University Innovation District using a futures studies approach (Case study: Islamic Azad University of Isfahan; Khorasgan Branch)9511312179010.30466/grfs.2025.56131.1106FAFatemeh Sadat HosseiniMaster's student, Department of Urban Planning and Design, University of Arts and Architecture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.0009-0009-6734-8152Hamidreza SaremiAssociate Professor, Department of Urban Planning and Design, University of Arts and Architecture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran0000-0002-3625-7268Khatereh Moghani RahimiPhD student, Department of Urban Planning and Design, University of Art and Architecture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.0000-0002-1791-797XJournal Article20250421The university innovation district, as a vital hub for the convergence of ideas and resources, can contribute to local and national communities. Accordingly, the aim of the present research is scenario planning for the university innovation district at Islamic Azad University of Isfahan, Khorasgan Branch, with a futures studies approach. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature. Data collection is based on library and field methods. For data analysis, environmental scanning and MICMAC software , ScenarioWizard, and Expert Choice were used. The findings from environmental scanning indicate that 30 factors influence innovation at Islamic Azad University of Isfahan, among which 15 factors in 4 dimensions are identified as key factors in the university’s innovation. Then, possible scenarios for each key factor were designed and analyzed using ScenarioWizard software, resulting in two strong and credible scenarios. Subsequently, the main elements of the university innovation district—including drivers of high uncertainty and importance, key predetermined factors, scenarios, and policies—were analyzed and explained. The research findings show that realizing the university innovation district at Islamic Azad University of Isfahan (Khorasgan Branch) requires adopting key policies that integrally provide the necessary platform for innovation development. One of these policies is multilateral cooperation among the university, government, and industry, which acts as the main factor of the innovation district. This cooperation not only enables synergy among the three key sectors of society but also accelerates the commercialization process of new ideas and technologies. Moreover, implementing joint projects between the university and industry serves as a practical tool to link academic research with real market needs. By effectively implementing these policies, Islamic Azad University of Isfahan will be able to create a conducive environment for innovation growth that not only supports scientific development but also positively impacts the region’s economic growth.The university innovation district, as a vital hub for the convergence of ideas and resources, can contribute to local and national communities. Accordingly, the aim of the present research is scenario planning for the university innovation district at Islamic Azad University of Isfahan, Khorasgan Branch, with a futures studies approach. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature. Data collection is based on library and field methods. For data analysis, environmental scanning and MICMAC software , ScenarioWizard, and Expert Choice were used. The findings from environmental scanning indicate that 30 factors influence innovation at Islamic Azad University of Isfahan, among which 15 factors in 4 dimensions are identified as key factors in the university’s innovation. Then, possible scenarios for each key factor were designed and analyzed using ScenarioWizard software, resulting in two strong and credible scenarios. Subsequently, the main elements of the university innovation district—including drivers of high uncertainty and importance, key predetermined factors, scenarios, and policies—were analyzed and explained. The research findings show that realizing the university innovation district at Islamic Azad University of Isfahan (Khorasgan Branch) requires adopting key policies that integrally provide the necessary platform for innovation development. One of these policies is multilateral cooperation among the university, government, and industry, which acts as the main factor of the innovation district. This cooperation not only enables synergy among the three key sectors of society but also accelerates the commercialization process of new ideas and technologies. Moreover, implementing joint projects between the university and industry serves as a practical tool to link academic research with real market needs. By effectively implementing these policies, Islamic Azad University of Isfahan will be able to create a conducive environment for innovation growth that not only supports scientific development but also positively impacts the region’s economic growth.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121790_8f3f7b54e1cc74d6bfb5d741804b7741.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X3320251122Conceptualization and scientific mapping of the future grand image in futures studiesConceptualization and scientific mapping of the future grand image in futures studies11413612179110.30466/grfs.2025.56163.1115FAMilad GhanbariPhD in Future Studies, Hazrat ValiAsr Faculty and Research Institute, Imam Hussein University, Tehran, Iran.0009-0007-2002-6506Omid VoghofiAssistant Professor and Director of the Futures Studies Group, Hazrat ValiAsr Faculty and Research Institute, Imam Hussein University, Tehran, Iran.0000-0001-9197-8343Ebrahim HajianiAssistant Professor of Sociology, Ministry of Science, Research and Technology, Tehran, Iran.Journal Article20250504In this study, while systematically reviewing the futures literature and conceptually analyzing “future images” and “future grand images,” a set of synonymous and related terms was first identified, and the theoretical framework of grand images was defined, emphasizing components such as the multiplicity of the future, the flexibility of the image, and the role of collective memory. In fact, in the first part of the study, by reviewing all definitions and theoretical approaches in the field of future images and grand images, it became clear that the main difference between the two lies in the level of analysis and their temporal and spatial scope: While “future images” focus on a specific area or topic in the medium term, “future grand images” focus on interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral interactions, cover a very long-term period and a transnational scale, and have attempted to consider all economic, social, cultural, environmental, and technological dimensions in an integrated framework. In the next step, using a combined qualitative-quantitative approach, about 200 selected articles from the Web of Science database (1950-2025) were reviewed and in the qualitative section, conceptual dimensions were extracted using the content analysis method; then, the bibliographic data of the articles, including authors, keywords, and references, were post-processed, and co-citation maps and thematic clusters were drawn using VOSviewer software. The findings of the scientometric section were that the publication of articles in the field of "future images" has increased exponentially after 2000, and the focal points of research are in developed countries; topics such as educational futures studies, public policy, technological innovation, and social psychology have received more attention than other fields. On the other hand, the citation network maps indicated that concepts such as "future multiplicity," "scenario-making," and "sustainability" have become hubs in the scientific structure of this field.In this study, while systematically reviewing the futures literature and conceptually analyzing “future images” and “future grand images,” a set of synonymous and related terms was first identified, and the theoretical framework of grand images was defined, emphasizing components such as the multiplicity of the future, the flexibility of the image, and the role of collective memory. In fact, in the first part of the study, by reviewing all definitions and theoretical approaches in the field of future images and grand images, it became clear that the main difference between the two lies in the level of analysis and their temporal and spatial scope: While “future images” focus on a specific area or topic in the medium term, “future grand images” focus on interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral interactions, cover a very long-term period and a transnational scale, and have attempted to consider all economic, social, cultural, environmental, and technological dimensions in an integrated framework. In the next step, using a combined qualitative-quantitative approach, about 200 selected articles from the Web of Science database (1950-2025) were reviewed and in the qualitative section, conceptual dimensions were extracted using the content analysis method; then, the bibliographic data of the articles, including authors, keywords, and references, were post-processed, and co-citation maps and thematic clusters were drawn using VOSviewer software. The findings of the scientometric section were that the publication of articles in the field of "future images" has increased exponentially after 2000, and the focal points of research are in developed countries; topics such as educational futures studies, public policy, technological innovation, and social psychology have received more attention than other fields. On the other hand, the citation network maps indicated that concepts such as "future multiplicity," "scenario-making," and "sustainability" have become hubs in the scientific structure of this field.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121791_fca800b4df5d51a4fe04d465a43af29e.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X3320251122Geotourism potential assessment of Nir County and its economic development using quantitative methodsGeotourism potential assessment of Nir County and its economic development using quantitative methods13715612179210.30466/grfs.2025.56041.1096FAFariba EsfandyariProfessor of Geomorphology, Department of Natural Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.Behrouz Nezafat TaklhePhD student of Geomorphology, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.0000-0003-3171-1772Haniye ImaniBachelor of Geomorphology, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.Aylar Khayati NoshahrMaster of Science Geomorphology, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.Journal Article20250310Geotourism is a combination of the words earth and tourism and refers to tourism that has geological, morphological and cultural attractions. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the geotourism capabilities and geomorphological destinations of Nir County for economic development. The nature of this research is descriptive-analytical-applied and to investigate the geotourism potentials of the Nir region, dynamic models that examine geomorphosites based on three scientific, added and combined values were used; the Feulet model which is based on four criteria of origin of formation, geographical distribution, tourism and accessibility status and finally the Kubalíková model which emphasizes scientific, educational, economic, conservation and cultural criteria was used. The results of the evaluation based on the national park model, dynamic model, and Kubalíková model showed that the Nir geomorphosite has the highest value in the category of displaying geomorphological processes with a score of 5 and the lowest value in the category of educational benefits with a score of 0.40. Also, this area has a high value in the geological feature index with cultural heritage value from the visitors' point of view, with a score of 1, and has a low value in the diversity index in geomorphological forms with a score of 0.11. In general, among all the geomorphosites in Nir county, the Bulaghlar resort has received the highest score from experts and visitors, and the Pol-e-Germez region has the lowest score. Therefore, it is concluded that the Nir region has unique capabilities in the field of geotourism based on the results of the evaluation models, and this has led to the economic development of the region at the provincial level. Finally, it is suggested that artificial intelligence tools be used in future studies to better and more appropriately evaluate the study areas.Geotourism is a combination of the words earth and tourism and refers to tourism that has geological, morphological and cultural attractions. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the geotourism capabilities and geomorphological destinations of Nir County for economic development. The nature of this research is descriptive-analytical-applied and to investigate the geotourism potentials of the Nir region, dynamic models that examine geomorphosites based on three scientific, added and combined values were used; the Feulet model which is based on four criteria of origin of formation, geographical distribution, tourism and accessibility status and finally the Kubalíková model which emphasizes scientific, educational, economic, conservation and cultural criteria was used. The results of the evaluation based on the national park model, dynamic model, and Kubalíková model showed that the Nir geomorphosite has the highest value in the category of displaying geomorphological processes with a score of 5 and the lowest value in the category of educational benefits with a score of 0.40. Also, this area has a high value in the geological feature index with cultural heritage value from the visitors' point of view, with a score of 1, and has a low value in the diversity index in geomorphological forms with a score of 0.11. In general, among all the geomorphosites in Nir county, the Bulaghlar resort has received the highest score from experts and visitors, and the Pol-e-Germez region has the lowest score. Therefore, it is concluded that the Nir region has unique capabilities in the field of geotourism based on the results of the evaluation models, and this has led to the economic development of the region at the provincial level. Finally, it is suggested that artificial intelligence tools be used in future studies to better and more appropriately evaluate the study areas.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121792_be051f9b21208aef18a131545726f114.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X3320251122A study of driving components influencing the development of urban tourism in Tabriz based on future studiesA study of driving components influencing the development of urban tourism in Tabriz based on future studies15717612179310.30466/grfs.2025.56037.1095FAMasoud HaghlesanAssistant Professor, Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Ilk.C., Islamic Azad University, Ilkhchi, Iran.0000-0001-9826-0086Journal Article20250309Cities as tourist destinations provide a suitable environment for attracting tourists by offering historical, cultural, artistic and natural attractions. Urban tourism development, as a complex and multidimensional process, requires detailed and forward-looking studies in the field of urban planning and urban management. By using futures research methods, it is possible to identify the social, economic and technological trends and changes that affect the tourism industry. This research studied the drivers affecting the development of urban tourism in Tabriz and conducted this analysis using futures research approaches. In this regard, several components that can contribute to the growth and prosperity of tourism in this city were studied, and qualitative results showed how these components can, together, lead to the creation of a sustainable and dynamic tourism ecosystem. Also, considering global trends and local needs, the efficiency and impact of these components on tourism development were examined. To conduct this research, first, four components were extracted as the main components in the economic, social, environmental and physical aspects, and then the driving factors were identified using the Delphi method. The interaction analysis method in the MICMAC software was used to analyze the data. According to the results obtained, creating appropriate conditions for the development of environmental carrying capacity, land management, training managers, restoring tourism effects, expanding tourism-related spaces, etc., can play a significant role in the development of tourism in Tabriz, and it was concluded that economic components have the greatest impact on the development of tourism in Tabriz. Finally, this study can help decision-makers and urban planners to formulate effective strategies to improve the tourism situation in Tabriz and exploit the potential capacities of this city.Cities as tourist destinations provide a suitable environment for attracting tourists by offering historical, cultural, artistic and natural attractions. Urban tourism development, as a complex and multidimensional process, requires detailed and forward-looking studies in the field of urban planning and urban management. By using futures research methods, it is possible to identify the social, economic and technological trends and changes that affect the tourism industry. This research studied the drivers affecting the development of urban tourism in Tabriz and conducted this analysis using futures research approaches. In this regard, several components that can contribute to the growth and prosperity of tourism in this city were studied, and qualitative results showed how these components can, together, lead to the creation of a sustainable and dynamic tourism ecosystem. Also, considering global trends and local needs, the efficiency and impact of these components on tourism development were examined. To conduct this research, first, four components were extracted as the main components in the economic, social, environmental and physical aspects, and then the driving factors were identified using the Delphi method. The interaction analysis method in the MICMAC software was used to analyze the data. According to the results obtained, creating appropriate conditions for the development of environmental carrying capacity, land management, training managers, restoring tourism effects, expanding tourism-related spaces, etc., can play a significant role in the development of tourism in Tabriz, and it was concluded that economic components have the greatest impact on the development of tourism in Tabriz. Finally, this study can help decision-makers and urban planners to formulate effective strategies to improve the tourism situation in Tabriz and exploit the potential capacities of this city.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121793_0d9605e67aeb2599189367f34bb34843.pdf