Urmia University Geography and Regional Future Studies 2981-118X 3 4 2026 02 20 An Importance–Performance analysis of urban regeneration indicators with emphasis on environmental components (Case Study: District 11 of Tehran Metropolis) An Importance–Performance analysis of urban regeneration indicators with emphasis on environmental components (Case Study: District 11 of Tehran Metropolis) 1 19 121808 10.30466/grfs.2025.56616.1161 FA Raheleh Saniei Assistant Professor in Geography and Urban Planning, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran 0009-0004-7736-0618 Journal Article 2025 10 01 The main objective of this research is to analyze the importance and performance of urban regeneration indicators with an emphasis on environmental components in District 11 of the Tehran metropolis. This study is descriptive-analytical in nature and serves an applied purpose. Data collection was conducted via field surveys and library research. The statistical population of this study consists of the residents of District 11, which, according to the census, has a population of 308,176 people. Using Cochran's formula, the sample size was estimated to be 384 people, who were chosen at random from the area. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by 15 experts in urban fields (urban planners and urban designers), and the reliability was approved with a Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of 0.737. The collected data were analyzed quantitatively using SPSS and Excel software. To determine the overall status of urban regeneration indicators with emphasis on environmental components, a one-sample t-test was used. To assess the importance–performance level of the indicators, the Importance–Performance Analysis (IPA) technique was applied. Finally, after prioritizing the indicators based on the IPA model, the internal relationships between the indicators were examined using the DEMATEL multi-criteria decision-making model in order to identify the interdependencies among them. The findings of this study indicate that, based on the results of the one-sample t-test, the indicators related to water hygiene and adequate access to water, as well as waste management and its efficient collection, are in a relatively more favorable condition compared to other indicators. Furthermore, the analysis using the Importance–Performance Analysis model revealed that indicators such as reducing environmental pollutants, combatting noise pollution and improving living conditions and comfort, energy efficiency and use of renewable energy, and effective protection and management of green spaces and trees should be prioritized in policymaking and management actions due to their high importance but low performance. In addition, the results of the DEMATEL model demonstrated that the indicator reduction of environmental pollutants plays the most significant role as both the most influential and the most influenced factor among the indicators studied. Given its extensive impact and strong interconnection with other environmental components, this indicator should be considered a central focus in urban regeneration planning and policymaking in District 11. The main objective of this research is to analyze the importance and performance of urban regeneration indicators with an emphasis on environmental components in District 11 of the Tehran metropolis. This study is descriptive-analytical in nature and serves an applied purpose. Data collection was conducted via field surveys and library research. The statistical population of this study consists of the residents of District 11, which, according to the census, has a population of 308,176 people. Using Cochran's formula, the sample size was estimated to be 384 people, who were chosen at random from the area. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by 15 experts in urban fields (urban planners and urban designers), and the reliability was approved with a Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of 0.737. The collected data were analyzed quantitatively using SPSS and Excel software. To determine the overall status of urban regeneration indicators with emphasis on environmental components, a one-sample t-test was used. To assess the importance–performance level of the indicators, the Importance–Performance Analysis (IPA) technique was applied. Finally, after prioritizing the indicators based on the IPA model, the internal relationships between the indicators were examined using the DEMATEL multi-criteria decision-making model in order to identify the interdependencies among them. The findings of this study indicate that, based on the results of the one-sample t-test, the indicators related to water hygiene and adequate access to water, as well as waste management and its efficient collection, are in a relatively more favorable condition compared to other indicators. Furthermore, the analysis using the Importance–Performance Analysis model revealed that indicators such as reducing environmental pollutants, combatting noise pollution and improving living conditions and comfort, energy efficiency and use of renewable energy, and effective protection and management of green spaces and trees should be prioritized in policymaking and management actions due to their high importance but low performance. In addition, the results of the DEMATEL model demonstrated that the indicator reduction of environmental pollutants plays the most significant role as both the most influential and the most influenced factor among the indicators studied. Given its extensive impact and strong interconnection with other environmental components, this indicator should be considered a central focus in urban regeneration planning and policymaking in District 11.

https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121808_5e19599fb90e809783a80d1223a74a19.pdf

Urmia University Geography and Regional Future Studies 2981-118X 3 4 2026 02 20 Re-examining the transformation of urban public spaces in post-Islamic Iran (From the Safavid Era to the Present) Re-examining the transformation of urban public spaces in post-Islamic Iran (From the Safavid Era to the Present) 20 39 121809 10.30466/grfs.2025.56148.1113 FA Fatemeh Aghnaei Alanjagh Ph.D. Candidate in Islamic Urban Planning, Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tabriz Islamic Art University, Tabriz, Iran. 0000-0001-9142-042X Mohammad Taghi Pirbabaei Professor, Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tabriz Islamic Art University, Tabriz, Iran. 0000-0002-6305-9611 Journal Article 2025 04 29 The city reflects the culture, values, and social structures of its inhabitants, and public spaces- as fundamental urban elements- play a critical role in shaping social relations, urban identity, and spatial justice. These spaces foster human interaction and reinforce a sense of social cohesion. Since cities are shaped and given meaning by their human creators, they are inherently connected to the cultural and religious characteristics of a society. This study, using a descriptive-analytical approach and comparative analysis, investigates the historical transformation of public spaces in Iran after the advent of Islam. Data collection was conducted through documentary research. The analysis focuses on four historical periods- the Safavid, Qajar, Pahlavi, and post-Islamic Revolution- and examines key public spaces from an Islamic perspective in terms of their physical, functional, and semantic transformations. The findings reveal that Islamic teachings emphasize the social nature of public space and consider accessibility for all as a key criterion of desirability. Spaces such as Tekyehs, Hosseiniehs, and Mosallas are among the manifestations of the Islamic worldview in Iran, reflecting the growing religious expression of society. The study concludes that the Safavid era shows the highest alignment with Islamic public space principles— such as universal access, ritual integration, and participatory function— while the Pahlavi period, influenced by modernist models, witnessed a decline in the social and cultural functions of public spaces. Ultimately, the study emphasizes the need to revitalize public spaces based on Islamic-Iranian identity, address contemporary urban needs, and thoughtfully integrate indigenous principles with global urban transformations. The city reflects the culture, values, and social structures of its inhabitants, and public spaces- as fundamental urban elements- play a critical role in shaping social relations, urban identity, and spatial justice. These spaces foster human interaction and reinforce a sense of social cohesion. Since cities are shaped and given meaning by their human creators, they are inherently connected to the cultural and religious characteristics of a society. This study, using a descriptive-analytical approach and comparative analysis, investigates the historical transformation of public spaces in Iran after the advent of Islam. Data collection was conducted through documentary research. The analysis focuses on four historical periods- the Safavid, Qajar, Pahlavi, and post-Islamic Revolution- and examines key public spaces from an Islamic perspective in terms of their physical, functional, and semantic transformations. The findings reveal that Islamic teachings emphasize the social nature of public space and consider accessibility for all as a key criterion of desirability. Spaces such as Tekyehs, Hosseiniehs, and Mosallas are among the manifestations of the Islamic worldview in Iran, reflecting the growing religious expression of society. The study concludes that the Safavid era shows the highest alignment with Islamic public space principles— such as universal access, ritual integration, and participatory function— while the Pahlavi period, influenced by modernist models, witnessed a decline in the social and cultural functions of public spaces. Ultimately, the study emphasizes the need to revitalize public spaces based on Islamic-Iranian identity, address contemporary urban needs, and thoughtfully integrate indigenous principles with global urban transformations.

https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121809_f9c7f68350ba64aa0c4fa5145cf224b7.pdf

Urmia University Geography and Regional Future Studies 2981-118X 3 4 2026 02 20 Delineating an alternative future for Iran's informal settlements in the face of climate change and digital transformations: A case study using participatory scenario-making method (Bagh Neshat neighborhood of Qazvin city) Delineating an alternative future for Iran's informal settlements in the face of climate change and digital transformations: A case study using participatory scenario-making method (Bagh Neshat neighborhood of Qazvin city) 40 58 121820 10.30466/grfs.2025.56658.1165 FA Seyed Hamed Ghafelebashi PhD student in Urban Planning, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran 0009-0001-9007-6636 Einollah Keshavarz Tork Associate Professor, Future Studies Department, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran 0009-0001-9007-6636 Journal Article 2025 10 18 Informal settlements, as one of the consequences of rapid urbanization, are at the forefront of facing the threats of climate change due to their structural and infrastructural gaps. On the other hand, digital developments have provided new capacities for managing these challenges. This research aims to study the future and develop resilience strategies for the Bagh Neshat neighborhood of Qazvin, as a prominent symbol of these settlements, using a participatory scenario-building approach. The present research method is qualitative, and the data were collected through 28 semi-structured interviews with residents, 9 interviews with experts and key stakeholders, the formation of three focus groups consisting of women, youth, and businessmen, systematic field observations, and the study of secondary documents. The data analysis process was carried out in three stages, using a combination of thematic analysis to extract key drivers, an interaction matrix to measure the relationships between them, and finally, morphological analysis to combine different states of drivers and generate alternative scenarios. The research findings led to the identification of four possible scenarios for neighborhood futures research: 1) The “digital resilience” scenario, in which the widespread adoption of new technologies leads to a significant reduction in physical damage; 2) The “climate crisis” scenario, which leads to increased migration by intensifying natural hazards and weakness in response; 3) The “limited participation” scenario, which, despite the relative strengthening of social capital, has failed to lead to full resilience due to the persistence of structural barriers such as gender and age inequality; and 4) the ideal scenario of “sustainable transformation” that combines digital governance, green planning, and full-scale community participation, leading to improved quality of life and comprehensive resilience. Finally, operational strategies such as teaching digital skills to different resident groups, developing flood early warning applications, institutionalizing participatory workshops, and investing in green infrastructure are proposed as paths to realizing the desired scenarios. Informal settlements, as one of the consequences of rapid urbanization, are at the forefront of facing the threats of climate change due to their structural and infrastructural gaps. On the other hand, digital developments have provided new capacities for managing these challenges. This research aims to study the future and develop resilience strategies for the Bagh Neshat neighborhood of Qazvin, as a prominent symbol of these settlements, using a participatory scenario-building approach. The present research method is qualitative, and the data were collected through 28 semi-structured interviews with residents, 9 interviews with experts and key stakeholders, the formation of three focus groups consisting of women, youth, and businessmen, systematic field observations, and the study of secondary documents. The data analysis process was carried out in three stages, using a combination of thematic analysis to extract key drivers, an interaction matrix to measure the relationships between them, and finally, morphological analysis to combine different states of drivers and generate alternative scenarios. The research findings led to the identification of four possible scenarios for neighborhood futures research: 1) The “digital resilience” scenario, in which the widespread adoption of new technologies leads to a significant reduction in physical damage; 2) The “climate crisis” scenario, which leads to increased migration by intensifying natural hazards and weakness in response; 3) The “limited participation” scenario, which, despite the relative strengthening of social capital, has failed to lead to full resilience due to the persistence of structural barriers such as gender and age inequality; and 4) the ideal scenario of “sustainable transformation” that combines digital governance, green planning, and full-scale community participation, leading to improved quality of life and comprehensive resilience. Finally, operational strategies such as teaching digital skills to different resident groups, developing flood early warning applications, institutionalizing participatory workshops, and investing in green infrastructure are proposed as paths to realizing the desired scenarios.

https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121820_822fc917f7d9ced30d96acd5c1546195.pdf

Urmia University Geography and Regional Future Studies 2981-118X 3 4 2026 02 20 Feasibility assessment of regions for the formation of technology clusters (Case study: Fars Province) Feasibility assessment of regions for the formation of technology clusters (Case study: Fars Province) 59 72 121810 10.30466/grfs.2025.56008.1091 FA Mohsen Rafieian Department of Urbanism, Faculty of Art and Architecture, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran. 0000-0002-4214-9765 Shabnam Jafari Department of Regional Planning, Faculty of Art and Architecture, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran. Mahsa Dehghanian Department of Urbanism, Faculty of Art and Architecture, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran. 0009-0008-4354-3108 Journal Article 2025 02 23 Clusters of science and technology play a vital role in fostering innovation, creativity, and knowledge-based economic growth. A cluster refers to a group of companies and organizations located within a specific geographic area that collaborate and interact in the production of goods and services. These interconnections create synergies that promote competitiveness and innovation. However, not all regions possess equal capacity for the formation and development of such clusters, which makes assessing regional capabilities an important step in regional development planning. The main objective of this research is to assess the potential of different regions in Fars Province for the formation of technology clusters. The study aims to identify which cities have higher or lower capacities for establishing and sustaining technology-oriented networks and innovation ecosystems. In this research, 48 indicators were employed to evaluate the technological and innovation capabilities of the regions in Fars Province. The analysis was conducted using the numerical taxonomy method, which classifies regions based on their similarities and differences. The research follows a descriptive–analytical approach and utilizes documentary resources, content analysis, and cluster analysis techniques. The statistical population includes all counties of Fars Province. The results indicate that Marvdasht County is the most advantaged area in terms of technological and innovation potential, whereas Sarchehan County is the most deprived, according to the numerical taxonomy model. The lower and upper limits of the analysis were 4.34 and 7.61, respectively, with all counties falling within this range. Marvdasht County recorded the lowest CI value (15.01), indicating higher relative advantage, while Sarchehan County showed the highest CI value (23.89), representing limited potential. The study concludes that there is significant variation in the technological capabilities of Fars Province’s regions. While some areas, such as Marvdasht, show strong potential for forming technology clusters, others require greater infrastructural investment and institutional support to enhance their readiness for innovation-driven development. Clusters of science and technology play a vital role in fostering innovation, creativity, and knowledge-based economic growth. A cluster refers to a group of companies and organizations located within a specific geographic area that collaborate and interact in the production of goods and services. These interconnections create synergies that promote competitiveness and innovation. However, not all regions possess equal capacity for the formation and development of such clusters, which makes assessing regional capabilities an important step in regional development planning. The main objective of this research is to assess the potential of different regions in Fars Province for the formation of technology clusters. The study aims to identify which cities have higher or lower capacities for establishing and sustaining technology-oriented networks and innovation ecosystems. In this research, 48 indicators were employed to evaluate the technological and innovation capabilities of the regions in Fars Province. The analysis was conducted using the numerical taxonomy method, which classifies regions based on their similarities and differences. The research follows a descriptive–analytical approach and utilizes documentary resources, content analysis, and cluster analysis techniques. The statistical population includes all counties of Fars Province. The results indicate that Marvdasht County is the most advantaged area in terms of technological and innovation potential, whereas Sarchehan County is the most deprived, according to the numerical taxonomy model. The lower and upper limits of the analysis were 4.34 and 7.61, respectively, with all counties falling within this range. Marvdasht County recorded the lowest CI value (15.01), indicating higher relative advantage, while Sarchehan County showed the highest CI value (23.89), representing limited potential. The study concludes that there is significant variation in the technological capabilities of Fars Province’s regions. While some areas, such as Marvdasht, show strong potential for forming technology clusters, others require greater infrastructural investment and institutional support to enhance their readiness for innovation-driven development.

https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121810_cd5fafbdce29ca2ffac69dd31d5f1f58.pdf

Urmia University Geography and Regional Future Studies 2981-118X 3 4 2026 02 20 Structural analysis of inclusive metaverse spaces for the sustainability of future smart cities (Case study: Tehran Metropolis) Structural analysis of inclusive metaverse spaces for the sustainability of future smart cities (Case study: Tehran Metropolis) 73 90 121811 10.30466/grfs.2025.56183.1118 FA Leily Bakhtiari Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran. 0000-0002-8189-5322 Journal Article 2025 05 09 The Metaverse, as a hypothetical virtual environment utilizing advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence and the Internet of Things, has the potential to contribute to the sustainability of future smart cities, enhancing urban efficiency and quality of life. In this regard, the present study aims to analyze the framework of immersive Metaverse spaces for the sustainability of future smart cities in the metropolitan area of Tehran. The research strategy is application-oriented, and the methodology is descriptive-analytical, based on exploratory futures research methods. The theoretical data were collected using a documentary method, and the empirical data were gathered through a survey method based on the Delphi technique. The target population of this study included urban experts, and a purposive sample of 70 individuals was selected. To analyze the data, the Delphi method, structural analysis in the MICMAC environment, and Scenario Wizard software were employed. The findings revealed that indicators such as transparency, demand reduction, urban simulation, and digital education play significant roles in improving smart urban sustainability. Additionally, the study demonstrated that the Metaverse can serve as an effective tool for optimizing resource consumption, increasing citizen participation, and mitigating urban risks. The final results suggest that to fully harness the potential of the Metaverse, it is necessary to strengthen digital infrastructures, enhance technology-related education, and improve cybersecurity. Overall, it is recommended that policymakers in Tehran focus on developing Metaverse technologies and integrating them with urban systems to leverage all the capabilities of this technology. The Metaverse, as a hypothetical virtual environment utilizing advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence and the Internet of Things, has the potential to contribute to the sustainability of future smart cities, enhancing urban efficiency and quality of life. In this regard, the present study aims to analyze the framework of immersive Metaverse spaces for the sustainability of future smart cities in the metropolitan area of Tehran. The research strategy is application-oriented, and the methodology is descriptive-analytical, based on exploratory futures research methods. The theoretical data were collected using a documentary method, and the empirical data were gathered through a survey method based on the Delphi technique. The target population of this study included urban experts, and a purposive sample of 70 individuals was selected. To analyze the data, the Delphi method, structural analysis in the MICMAC environment, and Scenario Wizard software were employed. The findings revealed that indicators such as transparency, demand reduction, urban simulation, and digital education play significant roles in improving smart urban sustainability. Additionally, the study demonstrated that the Metaverse can serve as an effective tool for optimizing resource consumption, increasing citizen participation, and mitigating urban risks. The final results suggest that to fully harness the potential of the Metaverse, it is necessary to strengthen digital infrastructures, enhance technology-related education, and improve cybersecurity. Overall, it is recommended that policymakers in Tehran focus on developing Metaverse technologies and integrating them with urban systems to leverage all the capabilities of this technology.

https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121811_de6aacabcf54f93dcf268548a525bf88.pdf

Urmia University Geography and Regional Future Studies 2981-118X 3 4 2026 02 20 Spatial analysis of Happy City indicators and their determinants in urban areas (Case study: Mashhad Metropolis) Spatial analysis of Happy City indicators and their determinants in urban areas (Case study: Mashhad Metropolis) 91 105 121821 10.30466/grfs.2025.56065.1098 FA Ahmad Hajarian Department of Geography and Rural Planning, Faculty of Geography and Planning, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. 0000-0003-4487-3586 Journal Article 2025 03 17 To realize citizenship rights and sustainable development of urban spaces, in recent years, numerous concepts have been proposed by urban and regional theorists and planners. Healthy city, child-friendly city, green city, electronic city, happy city, etc., are key concepts. Among these concepts, Happy City holds special importance and significance due to its inclusion of numerous indicators and variables. In a way, a happy city ensures the mental and physical health of its citizens. The purpose of this research is to spatially analyze the indicators of a happy city in the 13 regions of the Mashhad metropolis. The present research is of an applied type in terms of purpose and a descriptive-analytical study in terms of nature and method, and the data collection method is documentary (library) and field (questionnaire). The statistical sample size includes citizens living in the 13 regions of the Mashhad metropolis, which is estimated to be 171 questionnaires based on the population of 3,062,242 in 2016 and distributed according to the population of each region. SPSS and multi-criteria decision-making methods such as MEREC and COCOSO, and the structural equation method (Smart PLS) were used to analyze the data and information. The results of the study show that regions 9, 1, and 4 have the highest, and regions 3, 12, and 10 have the lowest levels of happy city indicators in Mashhad. Based on the results of the structural equation testing, the economic factors variable, which has a total impact coefficient of 1.523, had the greatest impact on the happy city, followed by the physical factors with a coefficient of 0.687 and the social factors with a coefficient of 0.622. To realize citizenship rights and sustainable development of urban spaces, in recent years, numerous concepts have been proposed by urban and regional theorists and planners. Healthy city, child-friendly city, green city, electronic city, happy city, etc., are key concepts. Among these concepts, Happy City holds special importance and significance due to its inclusion of numerous indicators and variables. In a way, a happy city ensures the mental and physical health of its citizens. The purpose of this research is to spatially analyze the indicators of a happy city in the 13 regions of the Mashhad metropolis. The present research is of an applied type in terms of purpose and a descriptive-analytical study in terms of nature and method, and the data collection method is documentary (library) and field (questionnaire). The statistical sample size includes citizens living in the 13 regions of the Mashhad metropolis, which is estimated to be 171 questionnaires based on the population of 3,062,242 in 2016 and distributed according to the population of each region. SPSS and multi-criteria decision-making methods such as MEREC and COCOSO, and the structural equation method (Smart PLS) were used to analyze the data and information. The results of the study show that regions 9, 1, and 4 have the highest, and regions 3, 12, and 10 have the lowest levels of happy city indicators in Mashhad. Based on the results of the structural equation testing, the economic factors variable, which has a total impact coefficient of 1.523, had the greatest impact on the happy city, followed by the physical factors with a coefficient of 0.687 and the social factors with a coefficient of 0.622.

https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121821_5258fca39822945e2440dc6eef5d618a.pdf

Urmia University Geography and Regional Future Studies 2981-118X 3 4 2026 02 20 Designing a smart branding model for tourist-friendly cities based on scenario-oriented foresight (Case study: Tehran) Designing a smart branding model for tourist-friendly cities based on scenario-oriented foresight (Case study: Tehran) 106 131 121822 10.30466/grfs.2025.56086.1122 FA Yazdan Shirmohammadi Department of Business Management, Faculty of Management, Economics and Accounting, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran 0000-0001-5838-7592 Mohammad Alizadeh Assistant Professor, Department of Iranian Studies, Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan, Rafsanjan, Iran 0000-0002-1043-2996 Journal Article 2025 05 13 The primary objective of this study is to design and explain an intelligent branding model for tourist cities, emphasizing foresight and sustainable development. The research adopts an exploratory mixed-method design. In the qualitative phase, data were collected using the Straussian Grounded Theory approach through semi-structured interviews with 18 experts in tourism, urban branding, and digital governance. Special emphasis was placed on the use of scenario planning as a key foresight approach in the interview protocol, enabling the modeling of potential future trajectories of urban brand transformation in the face of environmental uncertainties. In the quantitative phase, to evaluate the model's fit, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was conducted using SmartPLS software, based on survey data collected from 384 urban stakeholders. The findings identified three core components—structural factors (technological infrastructure, innovation drivers, institutional synergy), managerial factors (participatory governance, organizational agility, future orientation), and content factors (urban identity, perceived image, user experience)—as fundamental pillars of a smart tourism brand. Furthermore, contextual variables (economic, socio-cultural, political, and environmental features) and intervening factors (human, financial, cultural, and digital capital) indirectly influence the triadic branding strategies: "radical regeneration," "gradual redesign," and "status quo preservation." The final proposed model, grounded in scenario analysis and systematic interlinking of variables, offers a practical tool for urban policymakers and tourism managers to implement smart, adaptive, and future-oriented planning for urban tourism branding. The primary objective of this study is to design and explain an intelligent branding model for tourist cities, emphasizing foresight and sustainable development. The research adopts an exploratory mixed-method design. In the qualitative phase, data were collected using the Straussian Grounded Theory approach through semi-structured interviews with 18 experts in tourism, urban branding, and digital governance. Special emphasis was placed on the use of scenario planning as a key foresight approach in the interview protocol, enabling the modeling of potential future trajectories of urban brand transformation in the face of environmental uncertainties. In the quantitative phase, to evaluate the model's fit, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was conducted using SmartPLS software, based on survey data collected from 384 urban stakeholders. The findings identified three core components—structural factors (technological infrastructure, innovation drivers, institutional synergy), managerial factors (participatory governance, organizational agility, future orientation), and content factors (urban identity, perceived image, user experience)—as fundamental pillars of a smart tourism brand. Furthermore, contextual variables (economic, socio-cultural, political, and environmental features) and intervening factors (human, financial, cultural, and digital capital) indirectly influence the triadic branding strategies: "radical regeneration," "gradual redesign," and "status quo preservation." The final proposed model, grounded in scenario analysis and systematic interlinking of variables, offers a practical tool for urban policymakers and tourism managers to implement smart, adaptive, and future-oriented planning for urban tourism branding.

https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121822_39b0ecd74718a84631399d07c2e06881.pdf

Urmia University Geography and Regional Future Studies 2981-118X 3 4 2026 02 20 Foresight analysis of rural-urban population mobility from Gorak Rural District, Sardasht, to the city of Rabat and the developmental consequences for the origin areas Foresight analysis of rural-urban population mobility from Gorak Rural District, Sardasht, to the city of Rabat and the developmental consequences for the origin areas 132 148 121823 10.30466/grfs.2023.54832.1008 FA Setareh Mamandi Master's degree in Spatial Planning, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran Naser Soltani Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran 0009-0000-1064-1889 Alireza Movaghari Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran. 0000-0002-1701-5829 Journal Article 2023 07 27 Population movements within a geographical area have two directions—origin and destination—where the population of the origin community decreases while that of the destination community increases. The most significant example of population mobility is rural–urban migration, which appears in the form of leaving the village to live in the city. The present study aims to explain and evaluate rural–urban population mobility in the Gurek Rural District of Sardasht County and to examine the impact of economic, social, and environmental indicators on the migration flow from the villages of this district to the city of Rabat and surrounding cities. The research method is descriptive–analytical. Using Cochran’s formula, a sample size of 345 people was obtained, selected randomly. The research tool was a questionnaire, and SPSS software was used for data analysis. The reliability of the questionnaire was calculated using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for economic (0.843), social (0.824), and environmental (0.745) indicators. To analyze the hypotheses, statistical tests such as mean, variance, and Pearson correlation were used. Charts and maps were also created using Excel and ArcGIS software. The findings indicate that in the first hypothesis, the Pearson correlation matrix between social and economic indicators showed a significance level of sig = 0.000 at the 99% confidence level, indicating a significant and relatively strong relationship between the variables. In the second hypothesis, T and F mean-difference tests for all social variables and demographic characteristics showed a significance level (P ≤ 0.05) at the 95% confidence level. In the third hypothesis, the significance level obtained between environmental variables and demographic structure was (P ≥ 0.05), indicating that there is no significant relationship between these variables. The final results of this study show that there is a significant relationship between social, economic, and environmental factors and population mobility and rural–urban migration in the Gurek Rural District. Therefore, examining and paying attention to the economic, social, and environmental issues of residents is essential in understanding the region’s population mobility dynamics. Population movements within a geographical area have two directions—origin and destination—where the population of the origin community decreases while that of the destination community increases. The most significant example of population mobility is rural–urban migration, which appears in the form of leaving the village to live in the city. The present study aims to explain and evaluate rural–urban population mobility in the Gurek Rural District of Sardasht County and to examine the impact of economic, social, and environmental indicators on the migration flow from the villages of this district to the city of Rabat and surrounding cities. The research method is descriptive–analytical. Using Cochran’s formula, a sample size of 345 people was obtained, selected randomly. The research tool was a questionnaire, and SPSS software was used for data analysis. The reliability of the questionnaire was calculated using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for economic (0.843), social (0.824), and environmental (0.745) indicators. To analyze the hypotheses, statistical tests such as mean, variance, and Pearson correlation were used. Charts and maps were also created using Excel and ArcGIS software. The findings indicate that in the first hypothesis, the Pearson correlation matrix between social and economic indicators showed a significance level of sig = 0.000 at the 99% confidence level, indicating a significant and relatively strong relationship between the variables. In the second hypothesis, T and F mean-difference tests for all social variables and demographic characteristics showed a significance level (P ≤ 0.05) at the 95% confidence level. In the third hypothesis, the significance level obtained between environmental variables and demographic structure was (P ≥ 0.05), indicating that there is no significant relationship between these variables. The final results of this study show that there is a significant relationship between social, economic, and environmental factors and population mobility and rural–urban migration in the Gurek Rural District. Therefore, examining and paying attention to the economic, social, and environmental issues of residents is essential in understanding the region’s population mobility dynamics.

https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121823_e758ec3b55fdac7d7edf760a01aa1bd2.pdf

Urmia University Geography and Regional Future Studies 2981-118X 3 4 2026 02 20 An analysis of the realizability of smart cities in Tabriz metropolis An analysis of the realizability of smart cities in Tabriz metropolis 149 171 121824 10.30466/grfs.2025.56159.1114 FA Ali Zarei PhD student in Geography and Urban Planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran. 0009-0004-9171-6828 Reza Valizadeh Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran 0009-0007-0700-9533 Ali Panahi Associate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran 0000-0002-0286-4326 Journal Article 2025 05 03 The rapid and often uncontrolled urban growth in recent decades has confronted the metropolis of Tabriz with multiple challenges, such as the scattered expansion of urban spaces, increasing socio-spatial inequalities, high traffic density, environmental pollution, and a decline in citizens’ quality of life. The aim of this study is to analyze the feasibility of the ten districts of Tabriz metropolis in achieving a smart city, using indicators of smart urban growth. Accordingly, the indicators and criteria of a smart city and the factors influencing it were first collected. Then, to analyze the collected data and rank the districts of Tabriz in terms of smart urban growth indicators, a combined method of CVR and ANP was employed. Afterwards, by assessing and evaluating the technological potentials and infrastructures of the ten districts of Tabriz metropolis, the impact of each indicator on the districts was determined, and through analyzing their intrinsic capabilities, the significance coefficients of these indicators in each district were identified. The results indicate that Districts 2 and 9, with scores of 6.17 and 5.94, respectively, possess the highest level of smartness among the districts of Tabriz, followed by Districts 8 and 5. District 7, with a score of 4.61, has the lowest level of smartness. The rapid and often uncontrolled urban growth in recent decades has confronted the metropolis of Tabriz with multiple challenges, such as the scattered expansion of urban spaces, increasing socio-spatial inequalities, high traffic density, environmental pollution, and a decline in citizens’ quality of life. The aim of this study is to analyze the feasibility of the ten districts of Tabriz metropolis in achieving a smart city, using indicators of smart urban growth. Accordingly, the indicators and criteria of a smart city and the factors influencing it were first collected. Then, to analyze the collected data and rank the districts of Tabriz in terms of smart urban growth indicators, a combined method of CVR and ANP was employed. Afterwards, by assessing and evaluating the technological potentials and infrastructures of the ten districts of Tabriz metropolis, the impact of each indicator on the districts was determined, and through analyzing their intrinsic capabilities, the significance coefficients of these indicators in each district were identified. The results indicate that Districts 2 and 9, with scores of 6.17 and 5.94, respectively, possess the highest level of smartness among the districts of Tabriz, followed by Districts 8 and 5. District 7, with a score of 4.61, has the lowest level of smartness.

https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121824_a794a828a10e38135c17de1afff7cec2.pdf