Urmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X4320261122Identifying the drivers affecting urban waste management with a futures research approach: A case study of ArdabilIdentifying the drivers affecting urban waste management with a futures research approach: A case study of Ardabil12112203310.30466/grfs.2026.56233.1129FAVali RastgarPhD Student, Department of Geography, Faculty of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Ardabil, Iran.0000-0001-6601-1894Rasoul SamadzadehAssociate Professor, Department of Geography, Ard. C., Islamic Azad University, Ardabil, Iran.0000-0003-0489-5457Mohamad Taqi MasoumiAssociate Professor, Department of Geography, Ard. C., Islamic Azad University, Ardabil, Iran.0000-0001-6601-1894Journal Article20250601Environmental risks resulting from waste mismanagement are considered one of the fundamental problems of urban management in the country, and this forces urban managers to examine urban issues with planning and foresight. The city of Ardabil is no exception, and it is necessary to improve the waste management of this city. The aim of this futures research is to identify key drivers that are effective in improving urban waste management in Ardabil. This research was conducted based on futures research methods and using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Given its nature, we used the structural analysis method, MICMAC software, and a Delphi survey. In this regard, after holding numerous meetings with 24 experts, a total of 54 variables were selected as the statistical population of the study. Subsequently, the effective components were examined within the framework of the interaction matrix in the MICMAC software, and 15 factors were identified as the main and driving factors in urban waste management in Ardabil. Among these variables, social trust, development of participatory social values, educational and cultural programs, consumption patterns and consumerism, waste disposal location, waste disposal method, behavioral and environmental attitudinal dimensions, comprehensive waste management plan, geographical location, protection of the earth's natural resources, reform of existing laws, The service performance of municipalities, settlement structure and system, gross domestic product, and access to sufficient land for landfilling have had the greatest impact. If the urban managers of Ardabil pay attention to these key variables, we can expect improved planning and development in Ardabil in the field of urban waste management.Environmental risks resulting from waste mismanagement are considered one of the fundamental problems of urban management in the country, and this forces urban managers to examine urban issues with planning and foresight. The city of Ardabil is no exception, and it is necessary to improve the waste management of this city. The aim of this futures research is to identify key drivers that are effective in improving urban waste management in Ardabil. This research was conducted based on futures research methods and using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Given its nature, we used the structural analysis method, MICMAC software, and a Delphi survey. In this regard, after holding numerous meetings with 24 experts, a total of 54 variables were selected as the statistical population of the study. Subsequently, the effective components were examined within the framework of the interaction matrix in the MICMAC software, and 15 factors were identified as the main and driving factors in urban waste management in Ardabil. Among these variables, social trust, development of participatory social values, educational and cultural programs, consumption patterns and consumerism, waste disposal location, waste disposal method, behavioral and environmental attitudinal dimensions, comprehensive waste management plan, geographical location, protection of the earth's natural resources, reform of existing laws, The service performance of municipalities, settlement structure and system, gross domestic product, and access to sufficient land for landfilling have had the greatest impact. If the urban managers of Ardabil pay attention to these key variables, we can expect improved planning and development in Ardabil in the field of urban waste management.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_122033_0b00d6d9b6a5402cc21e55115b0b0e85.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X4320261122A commentary on the consequences of desertification in urban settlements with a foresight approach: A case study of the Lake Urmia catchment area in West Azerbaijan ProvinceA commentary on the consequences of desertification in urban settlements with a foresight approach: A case study of the Lake Urmia catchment area in West Azerbaijan Province224112203410.30466/grfs.2026.56337.1142FAParisa HamedaniDepartment of Urban Planning, W.T.C, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.0009-0002-2719-8494Zahra Sadat Saeideh ZarabadiDepartment of Urban Development, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.0000-0002-3757-2809Arash VahidDepartment of Urban Planning, W.T.C, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.0000-0001-9617-7115Esmaeil ShiehDepartment of Urban Planning, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.0000-0002-2870-8719Journal Article20250803Today, desertification stands as one of the most pressing socio-economic and environmental challenges facing humanity, imposing profound consequences on urban settlements. This phenomenon is increasingly prevalent across Iran, with the Lake Urmia basin serving as a prominent locus of these compounding environmental pressures. Meanwhile, foresight, as a strategic tool for predicting and analyzing trends and possible consequences in various social, economic, and environmental fields, can be a powerful tool for understanding and managing the consequences of this crisis in urban settlements and help create effective policies and programs to deal with it. For this purpose, the present study was conducted with a foresight approach to explain the consequences of Lake Urmia desertification on the cities of its catchment area in West Azerbaijan Province. In this descriptive-analytical study, first, using the snowball sampling method and questioning 34 specialists, experts, and elites related to the content of this study, the consequences of the drying process of this lake on the cities under study were identified. Then, within the framework of the cross-impact matrix and in the MICMAC software, the direct and indirect influence and dependence of each of these consequences were measured, and according to their scores, the most important and key consequences were explained. The results indicated that the increase in natural events (such as dust, salt storms, drought, earthquakes, etc.), reduction in water resources, loss of agricultural and garden lands, reduction in agricultural production, social unrest, soil erosion and reduction in its fertility, destruction of vegetation, weakening of agriculture-related jobs, lack of inter-institutional cooperation in dealing with crises, increased unemployment and intensified population displacement are among the most important consequences of desertification of the lake on the cities of its catchment area in West Azerbaijan Province. As a result, the findings emphasize the need to adopt cross-sectoral, evidence-based, and locally appropriate solutions to enhance the urban and livelihood resilience of the lake catchment communities.Today, desertification stands as one of the most pressing socio-economic and environmental challenges facing humanity, imposing profound consequences on urban settlements. This phenomenon is increasingly prevalent across Iran, with the Lake Urmia basin serving as a prominent locus of these compounding environmental pressures. Meanwhile, foresight, as a strategic tool for predicting and analyzing trends and possible consequences in various social, economic, and environmental fields, can be a powerful tool for understanding and managing the consequences of this crisis in urban settlements and help create effective policies and programs to deal with it. For this purpose, the present study was conducted with a foresight approach to explain the consequences of Lake Urmia desertification on the cities of its catchment area in West Azerbaijan Province. In this descriptive-analytical study, first, using the snowball sampling method and questioning 34 specialists, experts, and elites related to the content of this study, the consequences of the drying process of this lake on the cities under study were identified. Then, within the framework of the cross-impact matrix and in the MICMAC software, the direct and indirect influence and dependence of each of these consequences were measured, and according to their scores, the most important and key consequences were explained. The results indicated that the increase in natural events (such as dust, salt storms, drought, earthquakes, etc.), reduction in water resources, loss of agricultural and garden lands, reduction in agricultural production, social unrest, soil erosion and reduction in its fertility, destruction of vegetation, weakening of agriculture-related jobs, lack of inter-institutional cooperation in dealing with crises, increased unemployment and intensified population displacement are among the most important consequences of desertification of the lake on the cities of its catchment area in West Azerbaijan Province. As a result, the findings emphasize the need to adopt cross-sectoral, evidence-based, and locally appropriate solutions to enhance the urban and livelihood resilience of the lake catchment communities.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_122034_ab2226af11f8fe8928efb222a4a8c9f5.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X4320261122Measuring the impact of a sustainable urban economy on the socio-cultural development of urban areas with emphasis on Bryson's strategic planning: A case study of District 20 of TehranMeasuring the impact of a sustainable urban economy on the socio-cultural development of urban areas with emphasis on Bryson's strategic planning: A case study of District 20 of Tehran426012203510.30466/grfs.2025.56444.1144FASeyyed Hadi MoeiniDepartment of Geography, YI.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.0009-0005-8440-8592Parvaneh ZivyarDepartment of Geography, YI.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.0009-0003-4030-405XSimin ArmaghanDepartment of Geography, YI.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.0000-0003-0874-5958Journal Article20250806The concept of a sustainable urban economy refers to an economic system in cities that, while maintaining a balance between the economy, society, and the environment, improves the quality of life and also takes into account the needs of future generations. Methodologically, this applied research utilized a mixed-methods (quantitative-qualitative) cross-sectional design, conducted within District 20 of Tehran. In the analysis of the research findings, the internal and external factors affecting the socio-economic development of the area were evaluated in the form of a SWOT matrix, and the largest number obtained was related to SO, which were the project's strengths and opportunities, and the matrix was placed in the "aggressive strategy", which showed that the existing opportunities should be maximized by taking advantage of the strengths. Then, quantitative strategies (QSPM) were used to plan development in the area. The results showed that the socio-economic development plan written in the area (SO1) was the first priority, the attention of urban managers to strategic planning of the area (ST1) was the second priority, and encouraging investors, especially the tourism sector, which has a large economic impact on the area (SO2), were more important. In line with the above-mentioned topics, strategic planning for District 20 of Tehran was presented, considering the ten steps based on Bryson's model, providing an analytical framework for the strategic decision-making process and a reference for monitoring (Region 20 Municipality) as the output of the Bryson's model for the socio-economic development of the area.The concept of a sustainable urban economy refers to an economic system in cities that, while maintaining a balance between the economy, society, and the environment, improves the quality of life and also takes into account the needs of future generations. Methodologically, this applied research utilized a mixed-methods (quantitative-qualitative) cross-sectional design, conducted within District 20 of Tehran. In the analysis of the research findings, the internal and external factors affecting the socio-economic development of the area were evaluated in the form of a SWOT matrix, and the largest number obtained was related to SO, which were the project's strengths and opportunities, and the matrix was placed in the "aggressive strategy", which showed that the existing opportunities should be maximized by taking advantage of the strengths. Then, quantitative strategies (QSPM) were used to plan development in the area. The results showed that the socio-economic development plan written in the area (SO1) was the first priority, the attention of urban managers to strategic planning of the area (ST1) was the second priority, and encouraging investors, especially the tourism sector, which has a large economic impact on the area (SO2), were more important. In line with the above-mentioned topics, strategic planning for District 20 of Tehran was presented, considering the ten steps based on Bryson's model, providing an analytical framework for the strategic decision-making process and a reference for monitoring (Region 20 Municipality) as the output of the Bryson's model for the socio-economic development of the area.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_122035_12e738fb7bf52993082201279dd8191c.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X4320261122Futures studies of the Iranian–Islamic city of Tabriz using structural analysis (MICMAC) and scenario planningFutures studies of the Iranian–Islamic city of Tabriz using structural analysis (MICMAC) and scenario planning618112203610.30466/grfs.2026.56629.1163FAHadi HakimiAssociate Professor, Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.0009-0003-7956-473XMasoumeh AdamiPhD Candidate, Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.0009-0003-7956-473XJournal Article20251006Tabriz, as the most significant political, economic, and cultural hub in northwestern Iran, has in recent years encountered growing challenges in the fields of urban management and future-oriented planning. In a context where rapid social, economic, technological, and environmental transformations have intensified uncertainties in urban development, adopting a futures studies approach can provide an effective basis for identifying influential drivers and designing realistic scenarios to guide the city's future. This study was conducted within a positivist paradigm and through a quantitative approach, employing a combination of the Delphi method and structural cross-impact analysis (MICMAC) to identify and analyze the relationships among the factors shaping the future of Tabriz. Based on expert opinions, 17 key variables were extracted and evaluated using a 17×17 matrix. The MICMAC results indicate that the urban system of Tabriz exhibits high dynamism and instability, with considerable interactions among the variables. Moreover, the variables of urban governance, urban development pattern, urban economy, innovation, smart technologies (ICT), and Islamic principles were located in the high influence–high dependence quadrant and identified as the strategic drivers of Tabriz’s future. These drivers play the most significant role in altering the system’s state and shape the overarching direction of future scenarios. Subsequently, using Scenario Wizard software, three strong, weak, and plausible scenarios were developed, and the compatible scenario was selected as the preferred one. The scenario analysis reveals that achieving a sustainable and desirable future for Tabriz depends on strengthening effective governance, expanding technological infrastructure, enhancing the urban economy, improving innovative capacities, and simultaneously reinforcing social and cultural structures. These findings can serve as a basis for developing forward-looking urban policies and effective planning strategies aimed at realizing a sustainable development model for the city of Tabriz.Tabriz, as the most significant political, economic, and cultural hub in northwestern Iran, has in recent years encountered growing challenges in the fields of urban management and future-oriented planning. In a context where rapid social, economic, technological, and environmental transformations have intensified uncertainties in urban development, adopting a futures studies approach can provide an effective basis for identifying influential drivers and designing realistic scenarios to guide the city's future. This study was conducted within a positivist paradigm and through a quantitative approach, employing a combination of the Delphi method and structural cross-impact analysis (MICMAC) to identify and analyze the relationships among the factors shaping the future of Tabriz. Based on expert opinions, 17 key variables were extracted and evaluated using a 17×17 matrix. The MICMAC results indicate that the urban system of Tabriz exhibits high dynamism and instability, with considerable interactions among the variables. Moreover, the variables of urban governance, urban development pattern, urban economy, innovation, smart technologies (ICT), and Islamic principles were located in the high influence–high dependence quadrant and identified as the strategic drivers of Tabriz’s future. These drivers play the most significant role in altering the system’s state and shape the overarching direction of future scenarios. Subsequently, using Scenario Wizard software, three strong, weak, and plausible scenarios were developed, and the compatible scenario was selected as the preferred one. The scenario analysis reveals that achieving a sustainable and desirable future for Tabriz depends on strengthening effective governance, expanding technological infrastructure, enhancing the urban economy, improving innovative capacities, and simultaneously reinforcing social and cultural structures. These findings can serve as a basis for developing forward-looking urban policies and effective planning strategies aimed at realizing a sustainable development model for the city of Tabriz.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_122036_8c354377532c33c235e5a28fb1b461c2.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X4320261122Key drivers affecting the performance of fire stations after environmental hazards, with emphasis on earthquakes: A case study of Urmia cityKey drivers affecting the performance of fire stations after environmental hazards, with emphasis on earthquakes: A case study of Urmia city8210212185010.30466/grfs.2025.56698.1170FAAlireza JamshidiAssistant Professor, Department of Geography, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran0000-0002-3594-4365Amir Mohammad Rahimi EybloMaster's Degree in Spatial Planning, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran0000-0002-3594-4365Journal Article20251027Large earthquakes can cause severe damage to buildings and infrastructure. Earthquakes are highly unpredictable, and fires caused by large earthquakes are even less predictable. Historical records indicate that small fires, often ignited by earthquakes, have occasionally escalated into widespread, devastating blazes, resulting in severe damage to people's lives and property. In this regard, the present study, considering its nature and the horizon in which the drivers are identified, is based on a futures research approach, which is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of research method. The statistical population of the study comprises all specialists and experts with the necessary knowledge and experience in firefighting and safety. To extract the key drivers affecting the performance of fire stations after the occurrence of environmental hazards, 30 variables originating from scientific projects and articles were identified in several stages with the help of experts and inspired by theoretical foundations. Key drivers affecting the performance of fire stations after the occurrence of environmental hazards were identified. Based on the results and output of the cross-sectional structural model (MICMAC), these drivers or variables have often had a direct and indirect effect on the performance of stations with different intensities and at various levels. In this regard, the direct and indirect effects of the variables include the impact of human resources on the reliability of communication systems, the access and transportation logistics on inter-organizational coordination, the impact of the reliability of communication systems on the prediction and reduction of seismic intensity and characteristics, and the role of financial resource allocation on inter-organizational coordination. The relationship between the level of awareness and preparedness of the community and the allocation of financial resources, the impact of relief equipment and technologies on improving the resilience of physical infrastructure, the reliability of communication systems on the management of environmental and climatic factors, and the impact of relief equipment and technologies on the allocation of key financial resources were identified.Large earthquakes can cause severe damage to buildings and infrastructure. Earthquakes are highly unpredictable, and fires caused by large earthquakes are even less predictable. Historical records indicate that small fires, often ignited by earthquakes, have occasionally escalated into widespread, devastating blazes, resulting in severe damage to people's lives and property. In this regard, the present study, considering its nature and the horizon in which the drivers are identified, is based on a futures research approach, which is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of research method. The statistical population of the study comprises all specialists and experts with the necessary knowledge and experience in firefighting and safety. To extract the key drivers affecting the performance of fire stations after the occurrence of environmental hazards, 30 variables originating from scientific projects and articles were identified in several stages with the help of experts and inspired by theoretical foundations. Key drivers affecting the performance of fire stations after the occurrence of environmental hazards were identified. Based on the results and output of the cross-sectional structural model (MICMAC), these drivers or variables have often had a direct and indirect effect on the performance of stations with different intensities and at various levels. In this regard, the direct and indirect effects of the variables include the impact of human resources on the reliability of communication systems, the access and transportation logistics on inter-organizational coordination, the impact of the reliability of communication systems on the prediction and reduction of seismic intensity and characteristics, and the role of financial resource allocation on inter-organizational coordination. The relationship between the level of awareness and preparedness of the community and the allocation of financial resources, the impact of relief equipment and technologies on improving the resilience of physical infrastructure, the reliability of communication systems on the management of environmental and climatic factors, and the impact of relief equipment and technologies on the allocation of key financial resources were identified.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121850_af5e9d11dcb1ee9017b517c78d22b8fd.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X4320261122Participatory planning for implementing a sponge city in informal settlements of Mashhad with a sustainable water management approachParticipatory planning for implementing a sponge city in informal settlements of Mashhad with a sustainable water management approach10312012203710.30466/grfs.2026.56952.1199FASaleh EbrahimipourDepartment of Geography, Faculty of Theology and Foreign Languages, Islamic Azad University, Mashhad, Iran.0009-0007-8400-1922Katayoon AlizadehDepartment of Geography, Faculty of Theology and Foreign Languages, Islamic Azad University, Mashhad, Iran.0000-0002-7571-4281Journal Article20260104This study aims to elucidate the role of participatory planning in the effective and context-aware implementation of Sponge City principles in the informal settlements of Mashhad, adopting a sustainable urban water management approach. Utilizing a mixed-methods research design (quantitative-qualitative), data were collected through a structured questionnaire (sample of 420 residents), semi-structured interviews with urban managers and local representatives, focus group discussions, and field observations in four selected informal settlements of Mashhad (Khajeh Rabi, Ghal'eh Sakhteman, Seyedi, and Jaddeh Ghadim Ghochan). Quantitative data were analyzed using SPSS and SmartPLS software, while qualitative data were analyzed thematically using MAXQDA. Quantitative findings revealed that the variables "Sustainable Water Management" (path coefficient = 0.52) and "Public Participation" (0.41) had the greatest impact on the readiness for Sponge City implementation, demonstrating higher importance compared to physical components such as "Green Infrastructure" (0.21) and "Surface Water Drainage Systems" (0.29). Qualitative analysis corroborated the pivotal role of institutional weaknesses, organizational fragmentation, lack of local infrastructure, and, simultaneously, the presence of social capacity and willingness to participate among residents. The overall conclusion of the research indicates that the success of the Sponge City approach in informal settlements depends less on technical and physical solutions and more on transforming urban water governance, institutionalizing genuine participation of local stakeholders, and adapting interventions to the specific socio-institutional contexts of these areas. This study provides an operational framework in which participatory planning acts as an essential link between policymaking, technical design, and the sustainable implementation of the Sponge City.This study aims to elucidate the role of participatory planning in the effective and context-aware implementation of Sponge City principles in the informal settlements of Mashhad, adopting a sustainable urban water management approach. Utilizing a mixed-methods research design (quantitative-qualitative), data were collected through a structured questionnaire (sample of 420 residents), semi-structured interviews with urban managers and local representatives, focus group discussions, and field observations in four selected informal settlements of Mashhad (Khajeh Rabi, Ghal'eh Sakhteman, Seyedi, and Jaddeh Ghadim Ghochan). Quantitative data were analyzed using SPSS and SmartPLS software, while qualitative data were analyzed thematically using MAXQDA. Quantitative findings revealed that the variables "Sustainable Water Management" (path coefficient = 0.52) and "Public Participation" (0.41) had the greatest impact on the readiness for Sponge City implementation, demonstrating higher importance compared to physical components such as "Green Infrastructure" (0.21) and "Surface Water Drainage Systems" (0.29). Qualitative analysis corroborated the pivotal role of institutional weaknesses, organizational fragmentation, lack of local infrastructure, and, simultaneously, the presence of social capacity and willingness to participate among residents. The overall conclusion of the research indicates that the success of the Sponge City approach in informal settlements depends less on technical and physical solutions and more on transforming urban water governance, institutionalizing genuine participation of local stakeholders, and adapting interventions to the specific socio-institutional contexts of these areas. This study provides an operational framework in which participatory planning acts as an essential link between policymaking, technical design, and the sustainable implementation of the Sponge City.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_122037_dc914a879831bae4698b1914b4a5448a.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X4320261122Urban development modeling using a fuzzy neuro-inference system with futures studies in Hajiabad City, Hormozgan ProvinceUrban development modeling using a fuzzy neuro-inference system with futures studies in Hajiabad City, Hormozgan Province12114312203810.30466/grfs.2026.56976.1203FAMohammad Ebrahim AfifiDepartment of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Larestan Branch, Larestan, Iran.0000-0001-9671-0645Ebrahim ShiravaniDepartment of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Larestan Branch, Larestan, Iran.0000-0001-9671-0645Journal Article20260125This study, with the aim of analyzing and predicting the physical changes of Hajiabad city, used the integration of the Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with the Autonomous Cell-Markov (CA-Markov) model. The results of the evaluation of the ANFIS model, with a correlation coefficient of 0.9678 and an overall accuracy of 23.91 in 2025, confirmed the high efficiency of this intelligent approach in analyzing the nonlinear relationships between environmental factors and urban development. The 20-year trend analysis (2005-2025) showed that residential land increased by 9.4% from 3304.5 to 3617.7 hectares, while barren land decreased by 435 hectares and medium pastures decreased by 230 hectares, experiencing the greatest land use change. The model’s predictions for the 2055 horizon indicate a significant jump in residential area to 4425.2 hectares, which means an increase of 22% compared to the current situation and the swallowing of about 653 units of barren land and 344 hectares of quality pastures in the region. The analysis of the drivers also revealed that “distance from roads” with a coefficient of 0.93 and “distance from built-up area” with a coefficient of 0.92 are the main drivers of the city’s physical expansion in the coming decades. Finally, the stability of 0.992 in the residential transition matrix indicates the definitive and irreversible consolidation of natural lands into urban spaces, which doubles the necessity of smart land management. The role of futures research in this paper is to transform dead satellite data into a living roadmap for the management of Hajiabad city for the next 30 years to prevent excessive development and ecological destruction.This study, with the aim of analyzing and predicting the physical changes of Hajiabad city, used the integration of the Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with the Autonomous Cell-Markov (CA-Markov) model. The results of the evaluation of the ANFIS model, with a correlation coefficient of 0.9678 and an overall accuracy of 23.91 in 2025, confirmed the high efficiency of this intelligent approach in analyzing the nonlinear relationships between environmental factors and urban development. The 20-year trend analysis (2005-2025) showed that residential land increased by 9.4% from 3304.5 to 3617.7 hectares, while barren land decreased by 435 hectares and medium pastures decreased by 230 hectares, experiencing the greatest land use change. The model’s predictions for the 2055 horizon indicate a significant jump in residential area to 4425.2 hectares, which means an increase of 22% compared to the current situation and the swallowing of about 653 units of barren land and 344 hectares of quality pastures in the region. The analysis of the drivers also revealed that “distance from roads” with a coefficient of 0.93 and “distance from built-up area” with a coefficient of 0.92 are the main drivers of the city’s physical expansion in the coming decades. Finally, the stability of 0.992 in the residential transition matrix indicates the definitive and irreversible consolidation of natural lands into urban spaces, which doubles the necessity of smart land management. The role of futures research in this paper is to transform dead satellite data into a living roadmap for the management of Hajiabad city for the next 30 years to prevent excessive development and ecological destruction.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_122038_2b0412579a272b61fd6a5f9dc86edead.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X4320261122Structural analysis of biophilic urban planning for enhancing urban livability in Shiraz metropolis: A meta-analytical approachStructural analysis of biophilic urban planning for enhancing urban livability in Shiraz metropolis: A meta-analytical approach14416512203910.30466/grfs.2026.56997.1205FARostam GhahremaniPhD Student, Department of Geography, Lar.C., Islamic Azad University, Larestan, Iran0009-0004-0116-6894Ali VakhshouriDepartment of Geography, Lar.C., Islamic Azad University, Larestan, Iran0000-0001-8491-996XAbdolrasoul GhanbariDepartment of Geography, Lar.C., Islamic Azad University, Larestan, Iran0000-0003-2547-0300Journal Article20260131With the rapid growth of urbanization, biophilic urban planning has emerged as a strategic approach to strengthen the human–nature connection, potentially enhancing ecological diversity and urban livability. In this context, the present study aims to conduct a structural analysis of biophilic urban planning in relation to the livability of the Shiraz metropolis using a meta-analytical approach. The research is applied in purpose and descriptive–analytical in nature, integrating bibliometric and Delphi-based methods. In the first phase, a systematic analysis was performed on 175 articles retrieved from the Scopus database, which were analyzed using Bibliometrix and VOSviewer software. In the second phase, sixteen key indicators were assessed using the MICMAC technique, and future scenarios were developed with ScenarioWizard. The statistical population consisted of urban planning experts, from which a purposive sample of 70 individuals was selected. Results of the bibliometric analysis of articles published between 2015 and 2025 indicate a significant growth in research on biophilic urban planning and urban livability, with a primary focus on green infrastructure, sustainable development, climate resilience, urban governance, and nature-based solutions for improving urban quality of life. Structural analysis revealed that indicators related to sustainable infrastructure planning and nature-based urban governance had the highest influence, while the development of urban ecosystem management exhibited the highest dependency. Scenario development showed that the optimistic scenario, involving the full activation of driving factors, leads to high livability, whereas the moderate and pessimistic scenarios correspond to relative improvement and severe decline in livability, respectively. Therefore, by strengthening biophilic urban planning and emphasizing infrastructure, nature-based governance, and ecosystem management indicators, the livability of Shiraz metropolis can be effectively enhanced in the future.With the rapid growth of urbanization, biophilic urban planning has emerged as a strategic approach to strengthen the human–nature connection, potentially enhancing ecological diversity and urban livability. In this context, the present study aims to conduct a structural analysis of biophilic urban planning in relation to the livability of the Shiraz metropolis using a meta-analytical approach. The research is applied in purpose and descriptive–analytical in nature, integrating bibliometric and Delphi-based methods. In the first phase, a systematic analysis was performed on 175 articles retrieved from the Scopus database, which were analyzed using Bibliometrix and VOSviewer software. In the second phase, sixteen key indicators were assessed using the MICMAC technique, and future scenarios were developed with ScenarioWizard. The statistical population consisted of urban planning experts, from which a purposive sample of 70 individuals was selected. Results of the bibliometric analysis of articles published between 2015 and 2025 indicate a significant growth in research on biophilic urban planning and urban livability, with a primary focus on green infrastructure, sustainable development, climate resilience, urban governance, and nature-based solutions for improving urban quality of life. Structural analysis revealed that indicators related to sustainable infrastructure planning and nature-based urban governance had the highest influence, while the development of urban ecosystem management exhibited the highest dependency. Scenario development showed that the optimistic scenario, involving the full activation of driving factors, leads to high livability, whereas the moderate and pessimistic scenarios correspond to relative improvement and severe decline in livability, respectively. Therefore, by strengthening biophilic urban planning and emphasizing infrastructure, nature-based governance, and ecosystem management indicators, the livability of Shiraz metropolis can be effectively enhanced in the future.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_122039_15581ef9aefa1775f4ebbe68dfa3c6ba.pdfUrmia UniversityGeography and Regional Future Studies2981-118X4320261122Explaining the empowerment of local communities to shape the urban landscape: A case study of the new town of SadraExplaining the empowerment of local communities to shape the urban landscape: A case study of the new town of Sadra16618512204010.30466/grfs.2026.56919.1207FAAli HosseiniDepartment of Human Geography and Planning, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran0000-0002-3942-2222Seyed Abbas RajaeiDepartment of Human Geography and Planning, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran0000-0002-6113-2811Hamid SadeghiDepartment of Geography, Kish International Campus, University of Tehran, Kish, IranJournal Article20260208The urban landscape in new cities of Iran, including Sadra New Town, despite having diverse social capacities, is facing a weakness in recognizing the effective factors and foundations for realizing social empowerment in order to improve the quality of design and urban landscape. This research was conducted using a mixed quantitative-qualitative methodology to identify the effective factors in shaping the urban landscape based on the empowerment of local communities in Sadra. In this regard, data were collected from the perspectives of 342 citizens in Sadra using a questionnaire. The results of the research using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) show that five basic factors play a role in shaping the urban landscape of Sadra based on the empowerment of local communities, including: participatory planning and governance, sense of place and social capital, Social security and resilience, Social awareness and knowledge, and Financial-economic empowerment. This research emphasizes the importance of empowering local communities to shape the urban landscape by creating platforms for participatory planning, collaborative governance, and economic development in Sadra.The urban landscape in new cities of Iran, including Sadra New Town, despite having diverse social capacities, is facing a weakness in recognizing the effective factors and foundations for realizing social empowerment in order to improve the quality of design and urban landscape. This research was conducted using a mixed quantitative-qualitative methodology to identify the effective factors in shaping the urban landscape based on the empowerment of local communities in Sadra. In this regard, data were collected from the perspectives of 342 citizens in Sadra using a questionnaire. The results of the research using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) show that five basic factors play a role in shaping the urban landscape of Sadra based on the empowerment of local communities, including: participatory planning and governance, sense of place and social capital, Social security and resilience, Social awareness and knowledge, and Financial-economic empowerment. This research emphasizes the importance of empowering local communities to shape the urban landscape by creating platforms for participatory planning, collaborative governance, and economic development in Sadra.https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_122040_58ad40268378f3876dd09c6b80e53fa3.pdf