https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/ Geography and Regional Future Studies en daily 1 Sun, 23 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0330 Sun, 23 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0330 https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121946.html Population growth, agricultural development, and rapid urbanization, accompanied by climate change and increased demand for water resources, have seriously challenged the security and equitable access to water resources. In recent decades, the Central Plateau basin and especially the Gavkhoni watershed have experienced a water scarcity crisis. This crisis has disrupted economic activities and ecosystem sustainability while generating tensions among stakeholders, leading to the securitization of water issues in this basin. This study, employing a descriptive-analytical approach and a systemic perspective, examines the securitization of the water crisis in the Gavkhoni watershed. Required data were collected through library research and field methods, including interviews and questionnaires, then analyzed using the MICMAC, Scenario Wizard, and Vensim software. Findings indicate that key factors influencing the securitization of the water crisis in this basin include: equity in water allocation, the influence of Isfahan province officials at the national level, inter-provincial competition, the role of foreign security services, multiple water transfer projects from the Kohrang source, agricultural productivity rates, and the impact of national media on the analysis of regional water issues. The results show that the securitization status of the water crisis in the Gavkhoni watershed, at 30.43%, is on the verge of a critical situation. The most likely scenario identified is the "convergence of competitive interests and water scarcity," highlighting the need for special attention in management and policymaking. This study, due to the combination of quantitative and qualitative methods and its focus on the future status of the watershed, provides a novel perspective for policymakers and planners for the sustainable management of water resources. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121947.html Livability is a central concept in urban planning, addressing both the subjective and objective dimensions of urban settlements. It has gained significant attention from urban designers across all aspects of city development and planning processes. This study aims to identify and assess the key drivers influencing the future prospects of livability in Torghabeh city. A descriptive–analytical and applied research design was employed, with a researcher-developed questionnaire serving as the primary data collection instrument. The study population comprised 30 participants, including specialists, executive officials, and university faculty members with expertise in urban management and planning, urban design, sociology, and environmental studies at both the county and provincial levels. For analyzing and evaluating the data, futures studies tools, namely MICMAC and Scenario Wizard, were utilized. The results indicate that, among the 25 projected scenarios generated by Scenario Wizard, 12 scenarios (48%) correspond to critical conditions, 8 scenarios (32%) correspond to favorable conditions, and 5 scenarios (20%) correspond to static conditions. These findings suggest that critical scenarios dominate compared to favorable and static scenarios, indicating a higher likelihood of negative (critical) events relative to positive (favorable) outcomes. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121948.html The emergence of new technologies has introduced dynamism and complexity into the social sphere, particularly in defining and shaping tourism and attractions based on people's preferences and needs. In this context, the primary objective of this study is to identify the key drivers of tourism in Qom Province and develop future scenarios using a futures studies approach. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive in nature, employing a mixed-methods approach. The participants in the qualitative and quantitative phases included experts, university professors, tourism professionals with at least five years of relevant experience, and officials from executive bodies responsible for tourism affairs. In the qualitative phase, theoretical saturation was achieved through purposive sampling and interviews with 25 individuals. In the quantitative phase, prioritization was conducted by distributing questionnaires among 46 participants. For data analysis, a Futures studies approach was used in the qualitative phase, while the mean method was applied in the quantitative phase. The research findings indicate that when developing tourism attraction scenarios for Qom Province, two key drivers must be considered: (1) generational and lifestyle changes versus generational and lifestyle stability and (2) preference for historical and religious sites versus attraction to natural and modern attractions. These contrasting dynamics play a crucial role in shaping future tourism development strategies for the region. Based on the findings of this study, scenarios were identified and labeled as plausible future scenarios for Qom's tourism attractions. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121804.html Development without regard to the environment in the past decades has limited the capacity and ability of natural ecosystems and created harmful effects on the environment, including air, water and soil pollution, destruction of the natural environment around the city, etc. These destructive developments have caused an increase in urban planning theories in order to preserve the environment, and one of these approaches is the ecological city, so the purpose of this research is to future studies the effective factors in achieving an ecological city in Asadabad. The type of applied research and its method is descriptive-analytical. For data analysis, SPSS software and T-tech sample statistical tests, step-by-step regression and one-way variance were used. The results of the research show that in the environmental component, the clean air item has the highest average of 3.35 and the waste collection system item has the lowest average of 2.04. In the social and cultural component, the sense of belonging to a place has the highest average of 2.83 and the existence index. Campaigns and associations with the lowest average of 1.97, in the physical component, the item of residents' access to work and activities with the highest average of 2.65, and the item of the sewage collection system with the lowest average of 2.14, in the management component, the item of residents' access to Expert and young manpower has the highest average with 2.64, and city smartness has the lowest average with 1.71. Also, the step-by-step regression results show that the environmental component with a beta value of 331/ has the greatest impact and the social component with a beta of .274 has the least impact to achieve an ecological city in Asadabad city https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121949.html Silver tourism is a significant and rapidly growing branch of tourism that has drawn considerable attention from policymakers, planners and others through the promotion of "tourism for all." This branch specifically emphasizes providing seniors with accessible, safe, and enjoyable travel experiences tailored to their needs and limitations. Achieving safe silver tourism requires the identification of potential risks prior to planning and undertaking trips, allowing for proactive measures to ensure well-being throughout the journey. This study employs a qualitative approach, conducting semi-structured interviews with 21 experts in aging and tourism. Data were systematically analyzed using thematic analysis supported by ATLAS.ti software. The findings reveal that seniors encounter a diverse range of risks during travel, which can be categorized into physical, psychological, security and legal, infrastructural, and economic risks. To mitigate these challenges, practical and actionable recommendations are proposed to guide planners, policymakers, and organizers in designing safe and optimized travel routes, activities, and services. Suggested strategies include organizing recreational activities with appropriate supervision and scheduling by the Ministry of Sport and Youth, offering specialized travel insurance packages covering accidents, illnesses, and property damage by the Ministry of Cooperatives, Labour, and Social Welfare in coordination with the Central Insurance of Iran. Implementing these measures aims to enhance seniors’ safety, satisfaction, and overall travel experience, fostering sustainable, inclusive, and age-friendly tourism. This study highlights the critical importance of proactive risk assessment and strategic planning in ensuring that older adults can enjoy secure, accessible, and fulfilling travel experiences. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121950.html An analysis of global transformations reveals that the nation-state order, once the self-evident framework for political organization, is undergoing profound conceptual and institutional erosion in the face of environmental crises, technological breakthroughs, and shifting identities. In this context, the nation-state emerges as a historical construct grappling with mounting challenges. Its foundational pillars, rigid territoriality, homogeneous identity, and absolute sovereignty no longer suffice for the effective organization of political order. Globalization, the fluidity of communication, and the rise of transnational subjects have inaugurated new horizons of political coexistence, necessitating a fundamental rethinking of power, territory, and belonging. Nevertheless, moving beyond the nation-state remains a gradual, multi-layered, and exceedingly complex endeavor, fraught with the risks of instability and the emergence of new forms of authoritarianism. Global experience suggests that without establishing novel frameworks of legitimacy and reconstructing political concepts, the dismantling of the nation-state could lead to perilous institutional voids. Consequently, the critique of and transition from the Westphalian order require a creative political imagination, conceptual prudence, and a theoretical commitment to reconfiguring the nexus of humanity, space, and power within more open and participatory frameworks. Only then can new political formations move beyond the reproduction of violence and discrimination to offer possibilities for human solidarity, global justice, and environmental sustainability. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121951.html Cadastral systems for agricultural land are considered a fundamental tool for land management and sustainable development, as they enhance ownership transparency, reduce legal disputes, and improve agricultural productivity. However, challenges such as a lack of accurate data, outdated legislation, and administrative complexities have hindered their full implementation in Iran. This study aims to identify key driving forces and analyze potential future scenarios of cadastral systems through a futures studies approach. The research employed the cross-impact matrix method using MICMAC software to explore interdependencies among variables. A mixed-methods design was adopted, combining quantitative and qualitative data through questionnaires, interviews, and field observations. The statistical population included experts in agriculture, natural resources, geography, and information technology, selected purposefully. Validity of the instruments was ensured using the Delphi method and expert reviews, while reliability was strengthened by carefully choosing specialized respondents. The findings reveal that the driving forces influencing cadastral systems can be categorized into four dimensions: technological, institutional-legal, socio-economic, and environmental. Variables such as “ownership transparency,” “institutional coordination,” “advancement of spatial technologies,” and “investment in digital infrastructure” were identified as having both high influence and high sensitivity. Accordingly, the successful implementation of cadastral systems depends on the adoption of innovative technologies, legal reforms, active social participation, institutional collaboration, and leveraging economic benefits for sustainable development. The results highlight that cadastral systems are not merely technical tools but multidimensional governance mechanisms requiring simultaneous attention to technological, legal, social, institutional, and economic aspects in order to ensure their effectiveness in the agricultural sector. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121819.html Land-use change in agricultural areas is accelerating, leading to significant transformations in rural settlements. The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the factors influencing agricultural land-use change and to examine its consequences in rural regions. The research method is descriptive–analytical. Data were collected through both library and field methods using a researcher-made questionnaire. A total of 278 questionnaires were completed. The results indicated that among economic factors, brokerage activities in agricultural product markets and the lack of bank support for the agricultural sector had the greatest impact on land-use change. Among social factors, the desire for a more comfortable lifestyle and the migration of young people to cities were the most influential. Regarding environmental factors, fear of damage caused by natural phenomena and decreased rainfall were identified as key components. In the legal dimension, the absence of effective legislation and weak supervision by governmental institutions played a decisive role. Findings revealed that the legal factor, with a mean score of 4.81, and the economic factor, with a mean score of 4.80, had the greatest influence on agricultural land-use change. The results also showed that land-use change in agricultural areas has multiple economic, social, and environmental consequences, including an increase in land prices and speculative trading, loss of rural customs and traditions, the spread of social disorders, reduced biodiversity, and fragmentation of agricultural lands. Overall, it can be concluded that weak legal frameworks, economic pressures, and social factors are the main drivers of agricultural land-use change. Controlling this trend requires reforming legal and economic policies, strengthening financial support for farmers, and raising public awareness about the economic and environmental value of agricultural lands. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121848.html In the dynamic model, the term heritage land is made up of a number of cultural, historical, social, aesthetic, archaeological, educational, scientific, entertainment, physiological and artistic elements (landscapes have been a source of inspiration for painters, sculptors and writers). In this model, the criteria are divided into five groups. It covers almost all the features of geotourism. The Kobalikova model emphasizes more on scientific, educational, economic, conservation and cultural criteria. In this method, geomorphosite and landforms were selected for study and evaluation according to four criteria: origin of formation, geographical distribution, tourism and general accessibility of this national park. The overall assessment of geotourism and geomorphosites in this method is based on two management and tourism rates. In the Hadzik model, the results indicate the potential of the Khorramdareh region; This region has the highest score in geomorphological diversity in scientific values with a value of (4.80) and ecological value in surplus values with a value of (4.91). Based on the results of the Kubalikova model, the Khormadreh region obtained the highest score with the highest value in all indicators and a total score of (8.94). Accordingly, in the Kubalikova model, the Khormadreh region has the highest geotourism potential. Also, based on the Violet model, the Khormadreh region has the highest overall score with a value of (7.66). It should be noted that in this model, the accessibility and fragility sub-index has a higher score in the Abhar region, the management rate in the Khormadreh region has the highest score with a value of (4.5), and the tourism rate in the Abhar region has the highest score with a value of (3.35). Therefore, it is concluded that the geotourism areas of Khorramdareh have a good potential for attracting tourism compared to other geotourism areas. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121807.html The sponge city approach, as a new paradigm in sustainable surface water management, is a strategic response to the challenges arising from accelerated urban development and changes in the natural hydrological cycle. The present study is a descriptive-analytical study following a strategic analysis of the sponge city approach for zoning areas susceptible to green infrastructure development in the city of Zanjan. The research indicators are in two categories: objective statistical data that were extracted and analyzed in the form of a map, and GIS analyses. The second is subjective data in the form of sponge city components, including 4 welfare-cultural components: supporting, regulating the city ecosystem, and productive. For data analysis, the fuzzy overlap technique in the GIS environment, the one-sample T-test with SPSS software and the Structural Equation Modeling with SmartPLS software were used. The research findings show that 40% of the city area (mainly in the southern and southwestern regions) is located in areas with high and very high priority for flooding. These critical areas are mainly characterized by a slope of less than 5 percent, a high density of hard tissue (more than 60%), and a distance of more than 500 meters from the main waterways. Thus, the concentration of critical flood hotspots is in the southern and southwestern regions of the city. Also, the production components with a coefficient of 36.83 and the support components with a coefficient of 41.32 are in a relatively favorable state. On the other hand, according to the structural equation model analysis, the welfare-cultural component with a path coefficient of 3.356 has the largest contribution to explaining the sponge city in Zanjan. Overall, realizing a sponge city in Zanjan requires a serious determination to transform integrated surface water management, redesign urban spaces based on permeability patterns, and combine technical solutions with improving cultural-welfare indicators. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121850.html The statistical population of the study consists of all specialists and experts who have the necessary knowledge and experience in the field of firefighting and safety. To extract the key drivers affecting the performance of fire stations after the occurrence of environmental hazards, 30 variables originating from scientific projects and articles were identified in several stages with the help of experts and inspired by theoretical foundations. Key drivers affecting the performance of fire stations after the occurrence of environmental hazards were identified. Based on the results and output of the cross-sectional structural model (Mic Mic), these drivers or variables have often had a direct and indirect effect on the performance of stations with different intensities and at various levels. In this regard, in the plan or plan, the direct and indirect effects of the variables: the impact of human resources on the reliability of communication systems, the connection of access and transportation logistics on inter-organizational coordination, the impact of the reliability of communication systems on the prediction and reduction of seismic intensity and characteristics, the role of financial resource allocation on inter-organizational coordination. The relationship between the level of awareness and preparedness of the community and the allocation of financial resources, the impact of relief equipment and technologies on improving the resilience of physical infrastructure, the reliability of communication systems on the management of environmental and climatic factors, and the impact of relief equipment and technologies on the allocation of key financial resources were identified. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121880.html This study aims to identify the opportunities and challenges of developing urban cycling in Bonab, employing a qualitative approach and the thematic analysis method of Braun and Clarke. The statistical population consisted of experts and specialists in the fields of urban planning, transportation, and traffic management in Bonab, from whom 12 participants were selected through purposive and snowball sampling. Data were collected through in-depth semi-structured interviews lasting between 40 and 55 minutes and were analyzed after theoretical saturation was reached in the tenth interview. The systematic coding process led to the extraction of basic themes, which were organized into 17 themes and ultimately classified into five overarching themes: challenges related to physical and service infrastructure, deficiencies in urban governance and policymaking, challenges arising from social culture and negative public attitudes, local capacities and development opportunities, and the economic capabilities and developmental benefits of cycling. The findings indicate that the development of cycling in Bonab is a complex three-dimensional equation whose success requires simultaneous constructive interaction among physical, institutional, and cultural dimensions, none of which is sufficient on its own. Furthermore, Bonab is an opportunity-oriented city endowed with natural advantages, social motivations, technological opportunities, and strong potential for citizen participation, making the realization of a bicycle-oriented city not only feasible but also essential. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121851.html Tehran’s myriad of pressing issues has positioned it as the focal point for contemporary capital relocation initiatives. However, the suitability of the Makran region is a subject of considerable debate among numerous experts. This applied research, designed to inform future-proof decisions regarding the relocation of Iran’s capital from Tehran to the Makran region, seeks to address the central question: How will the interaction between the capital relocation strategy from Tehran to Makran and its drivers play out by the year 2045. Answering this central question requires addressing the following sub-questions: What are the drivers behind the capital relocation from Tehran to Makran, and what will be the state of these drivers under various scenarios. This research employs a mixed-methods approach. Data collection will be carried out using field research, document analysis, interviews, questionnaires, and digital files. Data analysis will initially involve thematic analysis followed by Fuzzy Delphi method. The findings of this study indicate that the drivers behind the relocation of the capital from Tehran to Makran include addressing the development gap between the northern and southern Persian Gulf regions, winning the competition of transportation corridors, resolving the issues of Tehran city, the sustainable development of the Makran region, and decentralization in the country. Challenges to this strategy include accessibility to the Makran region, pressure on the resources of the Makran region, resistance from powerful entities against leaving Tehran, proximity to military and security threats, social and cultural issues, and logistics and infrastructure provision. There are two alternative solutions to relocating the capital from Tehran to Makran: relocating the administrative center and development without relocation. The ‘development without relocation’ strategy, although less aligned with the drivers than the primary strategy, is considered a more appropriate solution due to its significantly better response to the challenges. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121879.html Tourism is one of the world’s largest industries, yet traditional models face environmental pressures, excessive resource use, and intense competition. The circular economy, focused on reducing, reusing, and recycling, offers new possibilities for sustainable tourism, and entrepreneurship plays a key role in applying its principles. This study identifies the key factors influencing circular-economy-based tourism entrepreneurship and develops an interpretive structural model to explain causal relations, hierarchical levels, and the intensity of influence among these factors. The research is applied and uses a mixed approach. In the qualitative phase, unstructured interviews with 17 experts in tourism, entrepreneurship, and business management were conducted. Thematic analysis led to the extraction of 10 key factors. In the quantitative phase, interpretive structural modeling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis were used to determine pairwise relations, hierarchical levels, and power–dependence classifications. The 10 factors were organized into five hierarchical levels. “Government supportive policies and institutional support” appeared at the highest level as an independent driving force. “Sustainable investment and local circular development funds” and “sustainable transportation and resource-optimization technologies” played intermediary roles. Six middle factors formed a linkage cluster. At the lowest level, “community-based participation and waste-to-value conversion” emerged as the most dependent factor and final outcome. Strengthening supportive policies and institutional frameworks is essential for activating the factor chain and achieving community-based participation in a circular economy. The proposed model provides practical guidance for policymakers, planners, and entrepreneurs in promoting sustainable, resilient, and regenerative tourism. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121886.html This research was conducted with the aim of identifying and prioritizing the physical–objective components influencing the beauty of urban facades from the perspective of citizens, with a focus on the Eram pedestrian pathway in Qom. The research method is descriptive–quantitative and applied. Data were collected through a researcher-made questionnaire based on a five-point Likert scale, and using Cochran’s formula, a sample size of 384 active users of the pathway was selected randomly. Data analysis was performed using SPSS and LISREL software, applying Structural Equation Modeling (SEM).The results showed that “reduction of visual clutter and disorder” with a path coefficient of 0.82 is the most important factor in enhancing facade beauty from the viewpoint of citizens. After that, “harmonious color schemes” (0.72) and “skyline coherence” (0.66) were placed in the next priorities, while “diversity in material texture and quality” with a coefficient of 0.07 had the least importance. Other components such as coherence of facade elements, decorative diversity, and material quality were also evaluated as influential, though with less weight compared to visual clutter.According to the findings, attention to visual coherence, organization of attachments and signage, and the selection of coordinated colors and suitable materials can strengthen the perception of beauty, environmental identity, and the quality of citizens’ experience of public spaces. These results emphasize the necessity of integrating user-oriented aesthetic criteria into urban planning and facade design, especially in cultural and religious contexts such as the Eram pedestrian pathway. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121906.html Housing has been one of the most important assets of households throughout history. By examining the factors affecting housing prices, planning and decisions can be made about the future of housing. The purpose of this research is to investigate the factors affecting housing prices in Birjand. The type of research is applied and its method is quantitative and using regression. In the present study, using statistical evidence at the provincial level for the period 1385-1402 and applying the autoregressive econometric approach with a distributional lag, the factors affecting the increase in housing prices were examined. In this study, both the short-term and long-term relationships of the factors affecting housing prices were examined. Based on the results of the long-term relationship, payment facilities had a negative effect on housing prices. Inflation had a positive effect on housing prices. An increase in the inflation rate leads to an increase in prices due to an increase in inflationary expectations. Also, the cost of construction had a positive and significant effect on the increase in housing prices in the long term. Also, the effect of land prices on housing costs in this model was negative. Also, the effect of housing sector investment, population growth, and bank interest rates on housing prices has not been significant in the long run. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121914.html Rapid demographic shifts and the precipitous decline in fertility rates in Iran have evolved beyond mere statistical changes into a complex puzzle with profound cultural roots. The present study aims to identify the key cultural drivers of fertility decline and design scenarios for population growth, thereby bridging the existing gap in future-oriented policy solutions by moving beyond purely causal and retrospective studies. The research method is applied in purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature, utilizing a mixed-methods approach within a foresight paradigm. In the quantitative phase, a scientometric analysis was conducted on global big data (2000–2023) using VOSviewer software. In the qualitative phase, data were gathered via a panel of 25 experts and executives selected through purposive sampling and processed using structural analysis models (MICMAC) and cross-impact analysis (Scenario Wizard). The face and content validity of the tools were confirmed by specialists, and reliability was established based on the consensus coefficient and stability of expert opinions. Findings revealed six key drivers: "Modernization's impact on women's attitudes," "Dynamic population policies," "Psychological transition to self-control," "Devaluation of the mother's role," "Lifestyle modernization," and "Individualism in marriage." Furthermore, scenario planning identified two compatible scenarios - "Managing modernization consequences" and "Controlling extreme individualism"-as the most probable paths for success. Ultimately, by demonstrating the inefficiency of purely financial incentives against deep value shifts, this study concludes that filling the current policy gap depends on a transition from mandatory policies to "cultural engineering" and the smart management of the tradition-modernity conflict within the family context. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121915.html Given the economic and cultural challenges in rural areas and the need to recreate development models, it is of particular importance to explore forward-looking strategies for creating creative tourism clusters. Using local potential and strengthening cultural identity as a driving force for sustainable developments can pave the way for economic and social growth and improving the quality of life in these areas. Therefore, in the present study, an attempt was made to identify internal resources and capabilities, macro-environmental factors, and positive points, in addition to searching for practices, and to present positive solutions to urban managers and officials regarding the development of villages in Taft County with priority to creating creative tourism clusters. This study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of data collection, and the data collection tool is a questionnaire. The Meta-SWOT model and PESTEL analysis were used to analyze the information. The results of this study indicate that the internal resources and capabilities of Taft County villages play a different role in the feasibility of creating creative tourism clusters. Some of these resources have higher weight and importance and are recognized as strategic advantages. Key factors such as pristine natural heritage (old orchards, natural landscapes), traditional adobe architecture (windbreaks, sabats), local handicrafts, ecotourism accommodations, and strong social cooperation play the greatest role in achieving this goal. These factors, in line with the feasibility of developing Taft villages by creating a creative tourism cluster, indicate their value, inimitability, and strategic fit compared to other factors. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121917.html In resource to increasing vulnerability existed in metropolises of Iran against natural and abnormal dangers, strengthening urban resistance as a vital necessity has been broached in urban planning and development. The purpose of the study is to analyze the key indices in three domains of urban management, crisis governorship and passive defense, in an incorporated way and to address the role of social association in improving urban resistance in Karaj metropolis to a great extent. This study has been implemented by using mixed research method (qualitative-quantitative) and case study concerned with Karaj metropolis. At first the processes as interviewing with experts, content analysis and the key indices of urban resistance were educed and the relationships among them specified by Delphi technique validation and then through ISM model. Eventually findings were confirmed and tested by quantitative data collection from 387 urban specialists through completing questionnaires and by using CFA and SEM methods. The results demonstrated that humane-social components especially citizenship association and local empowerment place in basic level of the model and act as a stimulation of other indices. In contrast, technical and institutional components including smart substructure, multilevel governorship and passive defense measures have placed in high levels and have an effective role in enhancing resistance indirectly. Furthermore, line analysis confirms that urban resistance is not realized by somatic interventions exclusively; on the contrary humane and institutional capacities are the pivot of system stability. The current study represents conceptual framework for urban decisions, crisis managements, prioritizing passive defense measures and improving citizenship association by combining three above-mentioned domains. Despite taking Karaj into account, this model has the capacity of generalization into other earthquake-metropolises of the country and it can be used as a generalizable and reconcilable framework for urban planning based on resistance. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121935.html In recent decades, rapid urbanization, industrial concentration, and increasing traffic volumes have turned air pollution into one of the most critical environmental challenges in metropolitan areas. This phenomenon is closely linked to the formation of urban heat islands. The present study focuses on the city of Isfahan—one of Iran’s major industrial centers—to analyze spatial patterns of air pollution and its relationship with urban heat islands. Satellite data from Sentinel-5P and Landsat 8 and 9, along with ground-based air quality monitoring stations, were employed using spatial analysis techniques in the Geographic Information System (GIS). Four major pollutants—nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and particulate matter—were examined. Results revealed a heterogeneous distribution of pollutants, with the highest concentrations observed in central, northern, and northwestern districts (notably districts 2, 8, 12, 1, 3, 7, 9, and 11), whereas southern and southeastern areas (districts 4, 5, 6, and 15) exhibited lower pollution levels. Classical Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models indicated significant positive correlations between pollutant concentrations and urban variables such as population density, built-up intensity, and road density. Conversely, Land Surface Temperature (LST) showed a direct relationship with pollutant levels, while natural indicators, including vegetation cover (NDVI), surface water (NDWI), and elevation, were negatively correlated. Temporal analysis showed that in 2020, coinciding with COVID-19 restrictions, NO₂ and CO concentrations notably declined. Overall, findings highlight the decisive role of anthropogenic and industrial activities in exacerbating air pollution and urban heat island intensity in Isfahan. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121944.html In light of increasing urban challenges and the imperative to enhance the resilience of cities against crises and sudden changes, the utilization of emerging technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been proposed as an effective strategy. The present study aims to investigate the role of AI in improving urban resilience, focusing on the city of Urmia as a case study. Employing a mixed-methods approach, quantitative data were collected through standardized questionnaires and analyzed using SPSS software alongside Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). Additionally, qualitative data were obtained through interviews with urban managers and AI specialists to deepen the understanding of the findings. Results indicated that AI has a significant impact on all dimensions of urban resilience including social, infrastructural, economic, and environmental aspects with the greatest influence observed on social and infrastructural resilience. The structural model demonstrated that AI accounts for over 63% of the variance in overall urban resilience. Conversely, obstacles such as data fragmentation and a shortage of interdisciplinary specialists were identified as barriers to full utilization of AI technologies. Ultimately, the study emphasizes that developing data infrastructure, enhancing digital literacy, and formulating smart governance strategies are among the most critical measures to realize AI-based urban resilience. The findings align with both domestic and international research, confirming the pivotal role of emerging technologies in sustainable urban management and providing a solid foundation for forward-looking urban planning. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121945.html With the intensification of environmental, social, and health challenges in residential areas, coupled with the necessity to adopt future-oriented paradigms in regional planning, biophilic design has gained increasing prominence as an innovative approach to enhancing residential quality. Despite its longstanding conceptualization, no systematic synthesis of studies has yet been conducted to identify the factors and outcomes of biophilic design in residential contexts and to elucidate its forward-looking implications for regional planning. This study aims to systematically review research on biophilic housing through a futures studies lens, extracting dominant trends, key drivers, and significant outcomes for the future of residential settlements. The research is based on descriptive and bibliometric analyses of 20 selected Persian studies and 63 Latin-script studies published between 2000 and 2025, with conceptual network analysis performed using VOSviewer software. Findings indicate that biophilic housing studies have shown an upward trend in recent years, with geographic focuses primarily in Iran, Indonesia, the United States, and South Korea. Cluster analysis of concepts identified 25 clusters within three main categories: "nature in space," "natural analogs," and "nature of the space." Among these, sensory stimuli, green virtual reality, and adaptive spaces emerged as key drivers influencing the future of biophilic housing. The results reveal that outcomes related to mental health, subjective well-being, and social cohesion have the greatest influence on the sustainability of residential settlements in the future. Accordingly, the findings of this study can serve as a foundation for formulating future-oriented policies and strategies in regional planning and the sustainable development of residential areas. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121953.html Tabriz metropolis, like many other Iranian metropolises, has faced rapid growth of informal settlements. These areas face numerous problems, including severe shortage of basic services, lack of structural safety, and weak social participation. Traditional approaches based on destruction and renovation have failed to provide a suitable solution for organizing these areas, hence this article aims to explain the model for recreating the spatial structure of informal settlements in Tabriz with an empowerment approach. The research method in this study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of research type. The statistical population includes 20 experts in urban regeneration and planning and academics who have been selected through purposive sampling.The data were collected through two Delphi questionnaires and a matrix of mutual influences and analyzed using content analysis and Miqmac software. Finally, the Delphi results and structural analysis were combined with scenario planning and future research. Based on the Delphi findings, access to water, electricity, and gas and coordination between institutions were identified as the most important indicators with an average of 4.25 out of 5. The results of structural analysis using the Miqmac method showed that the "coordination between institutions" index acts as a key factor of the system with the highest influence power. Finally, the proposed model shows that successful regeneration requires starting from basic infrastructure, strengthening institutional coordination, attracting public participation, and basic policymaking to achieve the desired scenario.Therefore, this article shows that with a systemic approach and attention to the relationships between different factors, sustainable solutions can be achieved for the regeneration of informal settlements. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121964.html The escalating water crisis in Iran has necessitated the strategic expansion of desalination technologies along its southern coastlines, particularly within the Makran region. However, given the operational sensitivity and immense scale of these facilities, suboptimal site selection can trigger profound environmental degradations and passive defense vulnerabilities. This research aims to identify optimal locations for desalination plants in Chabahar County by integrating spatial analysis with expert subjectivity under a passive defense framework. The methodology is predicated on a hybrid approach combining Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Q-Methodology. Initially, 21 critical criteria were identified across four primary domains: natural hazards (seismicity, liquefaction, and flooding), infrastructure (power and road networks), environmental considerations (wetlands, habitats, and water quality), and management-land use factors (deterrent centers). Subsequently, using Q-methodology to analyze expert perspectives, four dominant mental models were extracted, which served as the basis for layer weighting. Spatial data layers were standardized in ArcGIS using the Euclidean Distance function and synthesized according to weights derived from expert consensus. The findings reveal that expert mentalities converge on four core axes. The final spatial modeling indicates that the zones situated in the southern and eastern sectors of Chabahar, achieving the highest suitability score (+2), represent the optimal regions for facility construction. These areas exhibit the lowest vulnerability due to their alignment with passive defense standards, proximity to critical energy infrastructure, and strict adherence to ecological safety buffers. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121982.html Historic urban fabrics, despite possessing unique cultural and physical values, often suffer from deterioration, functional decline, and reduced spatial attractiveness, which underscores the necessity of their sustainable regeneration. Tourism development, as a key strategy for revitalizing these fabrics, requires the identification of critical drivers influencing the regeneration process. This study aims to identify and analyze the key drivers affecting the regeneration of historic urban fabrics with a tourism development approach in the city of Maragheh. The research employs a developmental-applied and descriptive-analytical methodology, with data collected through literature review and a cross-impact matrix-based questionnaire from 35 expert professionals in academic and urban management fields. The findings indicate 44 influential factors on the regeneration of historic fabrics, among which 18 key drivers—including preservation and maintenance of historic fabric, provision of banking facilities, private and public investment, recreational and leisure services, accommodation uses, tourism services, attention to non-governmental organizations, public spaces, social harms, sense of belonging, participation, technology utilization, visual quality and physical aesthetics, event organization, local education, accessibility enhancement, management of abandoned spaces within the fabric, and environmental health considerations—were identified as principal drivers. The results emphasize that the regeneration of Maragheh’s historic fabric is a multidimensional process based on the synergy of these key factors, and its successful realization requires a comprehensive and integrated approach. These findings can serve as a scientific and strategic basis for decision-makers and planners in formulating effective policies and strategies for the regeneration of historic urban fabrics. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121983.html Children, as a vulnerable group, require safe, active, and participatory spaces that align with the goals of sustainable urban development. The convergence of the principles of sustainable neighborhoods and child-friendly cities can enhance environmental comfort and improve children’s quality of life. Accordingly, the present study aims to investigate the physical-functional dimensions of sustainable neighborhoods with a child-friendly approach in the hot and arid climate of Yazd. The main research question is: What are the physical-functional dimensions of sustainable neighborhoods with a child-friendly approach in the hot and arid climate of Yazd? This study is a fundamental qualitative investigation, conducted through content analysis of semi-structured in-depth interviews. The study population included parents residing in selected neighborhoods, children aged 7 to 15, and urban planning experts, who were purposively sampled. After transcription, the data were analyzed in three coding stages—open, axial, and selective—using MAXQDA software. The results indicate that the physical-functional dimensions of child-friendly sustainable neighborhoods in Yazd encompass children’s access and mobility within the neighborhood, spatial equity in access to facilities, the quality and quantity of child-oriented infrastructure and amenities, environmental safety, physical compatibility with the hot and arid climate, and the attractiveness of public spaces for children. Moreover, current urban projects in Yazd face obstacles such as managerial attitude changes, limited budgets, and inadequate design, which contribute to unfinished or low-quality child-oriented spaces. The findings of this study can inform urban policymakers, architects, and local planners in enhancing neighborhood quality and creating safe, active, and sustainable environments for children. https://grfs.urmia.ac.ir/article_121994.html Background: City diplomacy, as a novel instrument in international interactions, plays a decisive role in enhancing the status of metropolises. Tabriz metropolis, despite its rich historical background and distinguished geopolitical position, faces numerous structural challenges in cross-border interactions. Objective: This study, adopting a futures studies approach, aims to identify the key drivers influencing the future of city diplomacy and to formulate plausible scenarios for Tabriz metropolis. Method: The research is developmental-applied in purpose and descriptive-analytical in method. Data were collected through library and field methods (semi-structured questionnaires). The statistical population included 15 university experts and urban managers selected purposively. Reliability was confirmed by Cronbach's alpha (0.84). Data were analyzed using MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software. Results: Out of 25 components, seven key drivers were identified: Consulates, Resident Foreign Language Speakers, International Conferences and Exhibitions, Foreign Investment, International Flights, Multinational Corporations, and Joint Ventures. Among 21 possible situations, only the "Coordinated Comprehensive Increase" scenario demonstrated full internal coherence across all seven dimensions (impact scores +7 to +12) and is introduced as the optimal "golden scenario." The "Continuation of the Current Trend" and "Coordinated Decrease" scenarios yielded zero and negative impact scores, respectively. Conclusion: The city diplomacy system in Tabriz is unstable, and realizing the desired future depends on an integrated and coordinated approach to simultaneously enhance the seven key drivers within a self-reinforcing cycle.