Delineating an alternative future for Iran's informal settlements in the face of climate change and digital transformations: A case study using participatory scenario-making method (Bagh Neshat neighborhood of Qazvin city)

Document Type : Original Research Articles

Authors

1 PhD student in Urban Planning, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Future Studies Department, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

Abstract

Informal settlements, as one of the consequences of rapid urbanization, are at the forefront of facing the threats of climate change due to their structural and infrastructural gaps. On the other hand, digital developments have provided new capacities for managing these challenges. This research aims to study the future and develop resilience strategies for the Bagh Neshat neighborhood of Qazvin, as a prominent symbol of these settlements, using a participatory scenario-building approach. The present research method is qualitative, and the data were collected through 28 semi-structured interviews with residents, 9 interviews with experts and key stakeholders, the formation of three focus groups consisting of women, youth, and businessmen, systematic field observations, and the study of secondary documents. The data analysis process was carried out in three stages, using a combination of thematic analysis to extract key drivers, an interaction matrix to measure the relationships between them, and finally, morphological analysis to combine different states of drivers and generate alternative scenarios. The research findings led to the identification of four possible scenarios for neighborhood futures research: 1) The “digital resilience” scenario, in which the widespread adoption of new technologies leads to a significant reduction in physical damage; 2) The “climate crisis” scenario, which leads to increased migration by intensifying natural hazards and weakness in response; 3) The “limited participation” scenario, which, despite the relative strengthening of social capital, has failed to lead to full resilience due to the persistence of structural barriers such as gender and age inequality; and 4) the ideal scenario of “sustainable transformation” that combines digital governance, green planning, and full-scale community participation, leading to improved quality of life and comprehensive resilience. Finally, operational strategies such as teaching digital skills to different resident groups, developing flood early warning applications, institutionalizing participatory workshops, and investing in green infrastructure are proposed as paths to realizing the desired scenarios.

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References

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Geography and Regional Future Studies
Volume 3, Issue 4 - Serial Number 12
Winter
December 2026
Pages 40-58

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