A critical reading of the epistemology of mainstream futures studies

Karami, Ali; Voghofi, Omid; Hajiani, Ebrahim

doi:10.30466/grfs.2025.56184.1119

A critical reading of the epistemology of mainstream futures studies

Document Type : Original Research Articles

Authors

Ali Karami ¹

Omid Voghofi ²

Ebrahim Hajiani ³

¹ PhD student, Department of Futures Studies, Imam Hossein University, Tehran, Iran

² Assistant Professor, Department of Futures Studies, Imam Hossein University, Tehran, Iran

³ Associate Professor, Ministry of Science, Research and Technology, Tehran, Iran

10.30466/grfs.2025.56184.1119

Abstract

In the field of modern futures studies, one of the most significant challenges is the absence of transparent, well‐justified frameworks for substantiating claims about the future. Many current approaches define their methodological assumptions and epistemic resources in ways that do not fully clarify the theoretical foundations or cognitive limits of scenario generation and analysis. Within these paradigms, it remains unclear which criteria should be used to validate future visions and how to assess the epistemic strength of competing claims. This study, therefore, employs a critical reading to identify the multiple dimensions of the “epistemic problem” in modern futures studies and, by examining the gaps and contradictions in existing paradigms, proposes a more precise framework for justifying epistemic claims in this domain. The present research is qualitative and adopts an interdisciplinary approach to examine and critique the epistemic foundations of futures studies. Data were collected through documentary and library research, and qualitative content analysis was used to identify key concepts, patterns, and relationships within the texts under review. After analyzing how the four main paradigms—positivism, interpretivism, critical theory, and mixed methods—address the seven core epistemological issues (definition of knowledge; possibility of knowledge; sources and means of knowledge; types and categories of knowledge; concepts and representations; cognitive certainties and their varieties; and truth and criteria of truth), detailed criticisms of each paradigm are presented. Finally, having synthesized these discussions, Islamic epistemology is proposed as the most suitable alternative framework.

Keywords

Futures studies

Epistemology

Critical reading

Foundations

20.1001.1.2981118.1405.4.1.3.8

Subjects

Regional Future Studies

Ahlqvist Toni, M. R. (2015). Emerging pathways for critical futures research: Changing contexts and impacts of social theory. Futures magazine. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.07.012

Aligica (2003). Prediction, explanation and the epistemology of futures studies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 69(1), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(03)00067-3

Ayer, A. J. (1936). Language, Truth and Logic. Gollancz. https://openlibrary.org/works/OL1157990W/Language_truth_and_logic

Bell, W. (2003). An epistemology for futures studies: From positivism to critical realism. In W. Bell, Foundations of futures studies: Volume 1—History, purposes, and knowledge 191–238, Transaction Publishers. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203791684

Bhaskar, R. (2014). The Possibility of Naturalism: A Philosophical Critique of the Contemporary Human Sciences. https://www.routledge.com/The-Possibility-of-Naturalism-A-philosophical-critique-of-the-contemporary-human-sciences/Bhaskar/p/book/9781138798885

Boonmavichit, T., & Boossabong, P. (2022). Approaching foresight through critical realism: Lessons drawn from Thailand. Journal of Futures Studies, 26(4). https://jfsdigital.org/2022-2/vol-26-no-4-june-2022/

Brown, J. S., & Duguid, P. (1991). Organizational Learning and Communities-of-Practice: Toward a Unified View of Working, Learning, and Innovation. Organization Science, 2(1), 40–57. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2.1.40

Browne, M. N., & Keeley, S. M. (2011). Asking the Right Questions: A Guide to Critical Thinking (10th ed.). Pearson Education. https://www.worldcat.org/zh-cn/title/asking-the-right-questions-a-guide-to-critical-thinking/oclc/725828776

Bruner, J. (1991). The Narrative Construction of Reality. Critical Inquiry, 18(1), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1086/448619

Burr, V. (2015). Social Constructionism (3rd ed.). Routledge.

Carnap, R. (1934). Logische Syntax der Sprache. Vienna: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-25375-5

Cedric, Ch. (2019). The four theories of truth as a method for critical thinking. Retrieved from https://commoncog.com/four-theories-of-truth

Cenci, S., Medeiros, L. P., Sugihara, G., & Saavedra, S. (2029). Assessing the predictability of nonlinear dynamics under smooth parameter changes. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 17(162). https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2019.0627

Chaparak, A. (2023). In Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Retrieved from https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/epistemology-social/ ScienceDirect

Chaparak, A. (2023). Toward a new stage for the epistemology of futures studies: Exploring social epistemology. Futures, 153, 103237. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103237

Chermack, T. J. (2002). The mandate for theory in scenario planning. Futures Research Quarterly, 25–28.

Collins T. & Andy H. (2010). The Evolution of Integral Futures. Retrieved from https://www.andyhinesight.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/79-Evolution-of-integral-futures-WFR-JunJul2010.pdf

Cook-Greuter, S., Ken W., & Beena Sh. (2018). Integral Theory Making and the Need for Empirical Rigor. Integral Leadership Review. https://integralleadershipreview.com/15583-integral-theory-making-and-the-need-for-empirical-rigor-observations-from-the-field-of-adult-development

Crotty, M. (1998). The Foundations of Social Research: Meaning and Perspective in the Research Process. Sage Publications.

de Sousa Santos., B. (2014). Epistemologies of the South: Justice Against Epistemicide. Routledge.

Edwards, M. (2002). Epistemological Pluralism in Futures Studies: The CLA–Integral Debate. MetaFuture. Retrieved from https://www.metafuture.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/epistemological-pluralism-2010.pdf

Esmaeilzadeh, P., & Pashazadeh, S. (2024). Exploring the Need for Medical Futures Studies: Insights From a Scoping Review. Journal of Medical Internet Research, 26(1), e57148. https://doi.org/10.2196/57148

Fine, G. (2003). Plato on Knowledge and Forms: Selected Essays. Oxford University Press.

Foucault, M. (1972). The Archaeology of Knowledge. Pantheon Books. https://search.worldcat.org/it/title/The-archaeology-of-knowledge/oclc/511209

Funtowicz, S. O. & Ravetz, J. R. (1991). A New Scientific Methodology for Global Environmental Issues, in Costanza, R. (ed.), Ecological Economics: The Science and Management of Sustainability: 137–152. New York: Columbia University Press. https://cup.columbia.edu/book/ecological-economics/9780231075626/

Gadamer, H.-G. (1975). Truth and Method (2nd ed.). Continuum.

Geels, F. W. (2022). Causality and Explanation in Socio-Technical Transitions Research. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 45, 194–216. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733322000646

Goldman, A. I. (2010). Knowledge in a Social World. Oxford University Press.

Guba, E. G., & Lincoln, Y. S. (1981). Effective Evaluation. Jossey-Bass.

Habermas, J. (2023). The Theory of Communicative Action. Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/win2023/entries/habermas/

Hajiani, E. (2018). Foundations, Principles and Methods of Futures Studies, Second Edition, Tehran: Imam Sadegh University Press. [In Persian]

Heidegger, M. (1962). Being and Time (J. Macquarrie & E. Robinson, Trans.). Harper & Row. https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/372138

Hideg, I. (2001). The future’s presence in the present: Unleashing critical futures studies. Futures, 33(7), 569–578.

Hines, A., & Slaughter, R. (2007). Carrying fire: A way forward for integral foresight. Futures, 39(6), 635–644. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328721001026

Hosseinzadeh Yazdi, M. (2020), Epistemology, first edition, Qom: Islamic Wisdom Society Publications. [In Persian]

Hume, D. (1748). An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding (T. L. Beauchamp, Ed.). Oxford University Press. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/induction-problem

IGI Global. (n.d.). What is positivist epistemology. In IGI Global Dictionary. Retrieved May 3, 2025, from https://www.igi-global.com/dictionary/positivist-epistemology/23062

Inayatullah, S. (1998). Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader: Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology. Metafuture.

Inayatullah, S. (2013). The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader: Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology. https://www.metafuture.org/product/cla-reader-and-cla-2-0-pdfs/

Inayatullah, S. (2018). Foresight in challenging environments. Journal of Futures Studies, 22(4), 15–24. https://www.metafuture.org/library-page/articles-by-sohail-inayatullah-1

Inayatullah, S. (2024). Critical Futures Studies. Retrieved from https://garden.johanneskleske.com/critical-futures-studies

Inayatullah, S., & Milojević, I. (2015). Policy Analysis: Systems, Futures and Critical Approaches. Routledge.

Integral L. (2025). A threat to the credibility of Integral Theory? Integral Life Community Forum. https://community.integrallife.com/t/a-threat-to-the-credibility-of-integral-theory/52770

Jacobson Nora, R. G. and Emma H. (2007). Ethical Review of Interpretive Research: Problems and Solutions. Retrieved from https://faculty.washington.edu/stevehar/Interpretive.pdf

Javadi amoli, a. (2010), Islamic system of thought, Islamic Publications Office ,qom. [In Persian]

Kadiri, J. A., & Ighodaro, H. F. (2024). Distinguishing between positivist and non-positivist research methods in political science: A quest for a meeting point. Wilberforce Journal of the Social Sciences, 9(2), 58–81. https://doi.org/10.36108/wjss/4202.90.0230

Kallio, H., Pietilä, A.-M., Johnson, M., & Kangasniemi, M. (2022). Improving the visibility and description of theory in qualitative research. International Journal of Qualitative Methods, 21, 1–12. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667321521000305

Kleske, J. (2024). Critical Futures Studies: Opening the Space of Plausible Futures. Garden Press. https://garden.johanneskleske.com/critical-futures-studies

Krikke, J. (2023). Why Integral must become more worldcentric. Medium. Retrieved from https://jankrikke2020.medium.com/why-integral-must-become-more-worldcentric-e50c7a7d1a42

Kristóf, T, (2024). Development tendencies and turning points of futures studies. Eur J Futures Res 12, 9 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-024-00231-7

Kuhn, T. S. (1962). The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (3rd ed.). University of Chicago Press. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Structure_of_Scientific_Revolutions

LibreTexts. (2023). Benefits and Challenges of Interpretive Research. In Social Science Research: Principles, Methods, and Practices. Retrieved 3, 2025, from https://socialsci.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/.../12.02%3A_Benefits_and_Challenges_of_Interpretive_Research

Lincoln, Y. S., & Guba, E. G. (1985). Naturalistic Inquiry. Sage Publications.

Lincoln, Y. S., Lynham, S. A., & Guba, E. G. (2018). Paradigmatic Controversies, Contradictions, and Emerging Confluences. https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/the-sage-handbook-of-qualitative-research/book242504

Lo Presti, A. (1996). Futures research and complexity: A critical analysis from the perspective of futures studies ,Futures, 28(2), 129–144. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016328796000547

Lumen salon. (2024). Chapter 12: Interpretive Research. In Research Methods for the Social Sciences. 3, 2025, from https://courses.lumenlearning.com/.../chapter-12-interpretive-research

Meyerhoff, J. (2009). Six Criticisms of Wilber's Integral Theory. Integral World. https://www.integralworld.net/meyerhoff4.html

Miller, R. (2024, September 6). Defining Futures Studies: Locating Anticipation [Conference paper]. Anticipation 2024, University of Trento.

Molla sadra,s (1631). The Four Books (in theoretical wisdom), qom. [In Persian]

Montuori Alf. (2012). Reflections on the Complexity of Integral Theorizing: Towards Agenda-Self-Reflection. Integral Leadership Review. https://integralleadershipreview.com/11360-41-reflections-complexity-integral-theorizing-towards-agenda-self-reflection

Mousavi, M. N., Shirazi, S. A., Nasar-u.-Minallah, M., & Bayramzadeh, N. (2025). Introducing the Mousavi Primate City Index for Iran’s Urban System assessment. GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY, 18(1), 44–53. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2025-3218

Mousavi, M., & Bayramzadeh, N. (2024). Spatial analysis of the trend of regional inequalities in Iran. Scientific- Research Quarterly of Geographical Data (SEPEHR), 33(131), 105-125. doi: 10.22131/sepehr.2024.2017054.3039 [In Persian]

Mousavi, M., Jafarpour Ghalehteimouri, K., Bagheri Kashkouli, A., & Bayramzadeh, N. (2024). Mitigating development barriers and addressing disparities in border cities of Iran: a comprehensive analysis of border provinces and influential factors. Geojournal, 89(4), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-024-11181-9

Neurath, O., Hahn, H., & Carnap, R. (1929). The Scientific Conception of the World: The Vienna Circle. https://sites.pitt.edu/~jdnorton/teaching/Phil_Sci_Core/Phil_Sci_Core_2022/docs/Vienna_Circle_manifesto_JDN.pdf

Nowell, L. S., Norris, J. M., White, D. E., & Moules, N. J. (2017). Thematic Analysis: Striving to Meet the Trustworthiness Criteria. International Journal of Qualitative Methods, 16, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1177/1609406917733847

Pervin, N., & Mokhtar, M. (2022). The interpretivist research paradigm: A subjective notion of a social context. International Journal of Academic Research in Progressive Education and Development, 11(2), 419–428. https://doi.org/10.6007/IJARPED/v11-i2/12938

Plato. (1997). Theaetetus. In The Collected Dialogues of Plato. 1553–1634. Princeton University Press.

Polanyi, M. (1966). The Tacit Dimension. Routledge & Kegan Paul. https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/60901005

Popper, K. (1934). The Logic of Scientific Discovery. Routledge. https://plato.stanford.edu/archIves/fall2011/entries/induction-problem

Popper, K. (1957). The Poverty of Historicism. Routledge.

Pretorius, L. (2023). Demystifying research paradigms. Retrieved from https://www.lynettepretorius.com/the_scholars_way_blog/demystifying-research-paradigms

Research-Methodology.net. (n.d.). Positivism. Retrieved from https://research-methodology.net/research-philosophy/positivism/

Ricoeur, P. (1981). Hermeneutics and the Human Sciences: Essays on Language, Action and Interpretation. Cambridge University Press.

Riessman, C. K. (2008). Narrative Methods for the Human Sciences. Sage Publications. https://uk.sagepub.com/en-gb/eur/narrative-methods-for-the-human-sciences/book226139

Russell, B., & Moore, G. E. (2002). Correspondence theory of truth. In Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Retrieved from https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/truth-correspondence/ Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy

Saunders, M., Lewis, P., & Thornhill, A. (2016). Research Methods for Business Students (7th ed.). Pearson. https://search.worldcat.org/title/Research-methods-for-business-students/oclc/921579669

Schlick, M. (2011). Analysis of Sensations and the Relation of the Physical to the Psychical. Open Court. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/schlick

Schoonenboom, J., & Johnson, R. B. (2017). How to construct a mixed methods research design. KZfSS Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie, 69(2), 107–131. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1049732318788379

Schwandt, T. A. (2007). Interpretivism. In The Sage Dictionary of Qualitative Inquiry,134–135. Sage Publications. https://methods.sagepub.com/dict/edvol/the-sage-dictionary-of-qualitative-inquiry/chpt/interpretivism

Schwandt, T. A. (2007). The Sage Dictionary of Qualitative Inquiry (3rd ed.). Sage Publications. https://methods.sagepub.com/dict/edvol/the-sage-dictionary-of-qualitative-inquiry/toc

Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. Doubleday. https://search.worldcat.org/it/title/The-art-of-the-long-view/oclc/22623235

Shenton, A. K. (2004). Strategies for ensuring trustworthiness in qualitative research projects. Education for Information, 22(2), 63–75. https://doi.org/10.3233/EFI-2004-22201

Slaughter, R. (2011). The Evolution of Integral Futures: A Status Update. Foresight International. Retrieved from https://foresightinternational.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Collins_Hines_Evo_of_Integral_Futs_2011.pdf

Slaughter, R., & Inayatullah, S. (2004). Futures Studies: Theories and Methods. Tamkang University Press. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016328711000929

Smith, A., & Stirling, A. (2022). Introduction to Critical Realism and Its Critique of Positivism. Journal of Critical Social Sciences, 10(2), 45–67. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02691728.2022.2080127

Sohravadi, sh (1191), hikmatol eshragh, qom. [In Persian]

Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. (2012). Scientific Objectivity. Retrieved from https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/scientific-objectivity/ Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy

Tabatabaee, m. (1982), Al-Dhari'ah to the works of the Twelver Shiites, Tehran: Publication of Jamaat al-Madrasin [In Persian]

Taghavi, M. & Mohaghegh, M. (2021). Fundamentals of Futures Studies, Wendell Bell, Tehran: Defense Industries Research Educational Institute. [In Persian]

Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. https://search.worldcat.org/title/black-swan-the-impact-of-the-highly-improbable/oclc/71833470

Virmajoki, V. (2022). Limits of conceivability in the study of the future: Lessons from epistemology Futures, 141, 102867. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328722000933

Voros, J. (2020). A primer on futures studies, foresight and the use of scenarios. Retrieved from https://thevoroscope.com/publications/foresight-primer

White joe. (2025). What Is Critical Epistemology and Why Is It Needed? Retrieved from https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/what-is-critical-epistemology-and-why-is-it-needed/

Wilber, K. (2000). A theory of everything: An integral vision for business, politics, science and spirituality. Shambhala. https://www.shambhala.com/a-theory-of-everything-1522.html

Wilber, K. (2005). Introduction to Integral Theory and Practice: IOS Basic and the AQAL Map. AQAL Journal of Integral Theory and Practice, 1(1), 1–38. https://www.redfrogcoaching.com/uploads/3/4/2/1/34211350/ken_wilber_introduction_to_integral.pdf

Wilber, K. (2007). The Integral Vision: A Very Short Introduction to the Revolutionary Integral Approach to Life, God, the Universe, and Everything. Shambhala Publications. https://www.shambhala.com/the-integral-vision-15152.html

World Futures Studies Federation. (2025). About futures studies. Retrieved from https://wfsf.org/about-futures-studies

Yeganeh, H., Su, Z., & Chrysostome, E. V. M. (2004). A critical review of epistemological and methodological issues in cross-cultural research. Journal of Comparative International Management, 17(1), 67–85. https://www.erudit.org/en/journals/jcim/2004-v7-n2-jcim_7_2/jcim7_2art05.pdf