Identifying and Scenario Planning of Key Drivers of Urban Diplomacy in the Metropolis of Tabriz with a Futures Studies Approach

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Research Articles

Authors

1 Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

2 Department of Human Geography and Planning, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

10.30466/grfs.2026.57282.1252

Abstract

Background: City diplomacy, as a novel instrument in international interactions, plays a decisive role in enhancing the status of metropolises. Tabriz metropolis, despite its rich historical background and distinguished geopolitical position, faces numerous structural challenges in cross-border interactions.

Objective: This study, adopting a futures studies approach, aims to identify the key drivers influencing the future of city diplomacy and to formulate plausible scenarios for Tabriz metropolis.



Method: The research is developmental-applied in purpose and descriptive-analytical in method. Data were collected through library and field methods (semi-structured questionnaires). The statistical population included 15 university experts and urban managers selected purposively. Reliability was confirmed by Cronbach's alpha (0.84). Data were analyzed using MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software.



Results: Out of 25 components, seven key drivers were identified: Consulates, Resident Foreign Language Speakers, International Conferences and Exhibitions, Foreign Investment, International Flights, Multinational Corporations, and Joint Ventures. Among 21 possible situations, only the "Coordinated Comprehensive Increase" scenario demonstrated full internal coherence across all seven dimensions (impact scores +7 to +12) and is introduced as the optimal "golden scenario." The "Continuation of the Current Trend" and "Coordinated Decrease" scenarios yielded zero and negative impact scores, respectively.



Conclusion: The city diplomacy system in Tabriz is unstable, and realizing the desired future depends on an integrated and coordinated approach to simultaneously enhance the seven key drivers within a self-reinforcing cycle.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Geography and Regional Future Studies

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 18 July 2026

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics