Document Type : Original Research Articles
Authors
1
Assistant Professor ,Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Payame Noor university.Tehran, Iran.
2
Associate Professor ,Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Payame Noor university.Tehran, Iran
10.30466/grfs.2026.57217.1236
Abstract
The spatial distribution of rural population and the evolution of population centers are key topics in population geography and regional planning, as understanding settlement patterns and population movements is essential for balanced rural development policies. This study aims to identify the spatial distribution pattern of rural population in Qir o Karzin County, its changes over three decades (1996-2016), and predict its trend up to 2041. The research employed a descriptive-analytical approach using quantitative methods including Average Nearest Neighbor (ANN), Moran's spatial autocorrelation, population gravity center analysis, kernel density mapping, linear regression, and the rank-size diagram. All spatial analyses were computed using GIS software and statistical environments at a significance level of 0.05.The results showed that the spatial distribution pattern of rural population has been significantly clustered in all census periods (1996, 2006, and 2016). The population gravity center analysis revealed a linear back-and-forth movement: a displacement of 1,177 meters southwest in the first decade (1996-2006) and a return of 842 meters northeast in the second decade (2006-2016). The rank-size diagram indicated an increase in slope from -1.4148 to -1.7835, signifying intensified spatial concentration in the settlement system. Contrary to conventional theories, no significant relationship was observed between initial village size and population growth rate (R² = 0.0106). The prediction of spatial population distribution up to 2031 and 2041 indicates the continuation of the clustered pattern and intensification of spatial polarization to its highest level in the last half-century (0.1218). In conclusion, strengthening secondary population centers, revising rural development policies with a location-oriented approach, and developing targeted support programs for villages with poor access are recommended.
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