The future studies of migration in East Azerbaijan province with a scenario-based approach

Document Type : Original Research Articles

Authors

1 Professor, Dept. of Geographical Research, University of Tabriz.

2 Professor, Dept. of Economic Development and Planning, University of Tabriz.

3 M. A. in Land Use Planning. University of Tabriz.

Abstract

Migration, as one of the most significant demographic phenomena, plays a decisive role in shaping social, economic, and geographical structures. In recent decades, large-scale population movements driven by diverse factors, including economic, environmental, and social causes, have become one of the primary challenges for population management and regional planning. These challenges have heightened the necessity for foresight analysis and the development of effective strategies to mitigate adverse impacts and capitalize on opportunities. This study focuses on migration forecasting in East Azerbaijan Province and aims to develop actionable scenarios for optimal management and planning. The research is applied and descriptive-analytical in nature, employing a futures studies approach. Data were collected through documentary and survey methods and analyzed using Delphi techniques, the Cross-Impact Matrix, and Scenario Wizard software. The statistical population includes 20 experts in urban and regional planning within the province. The findings identify 42 factors influencing migration in the province, among which 13 key drivers were determined using the MICMAC method. These key drivers include high unemployment rates, lack of sustainable water resources, rural depopulation, and inadequate road networks. The study further developed three scenarios- strong, weak, and plausible- to predict the future of migration in the region. The final analysis revealed that plausible scenarios, due to their balance between feasibility and desirability, serve as the basis for planning. Achieving these scenarios requires a thorough understanding of key drivers and the implementation of targeted measures. Recommendations include enhancing infrastructure, addressing economic challenges, and promoting sustainable development to improve migration-related conditions in East Azerbaijan Province. These steps are crucial for aligning planning strategies with future migration trends and ensuring balanced regional development.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Geography and Regional Future Studies
Volume 3, Issue 2 - Serial Number 10
Summer
August 2025
Pages 52-68

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