Foresighting macro trends in the automotive industry: Analyzing technological, social, and economic transformations and their impacts on the regional future of the automotive sector using the Fuzzy Screening Method

Document Type : Original Research Articles

Authors

1 Professor, Department of Futures Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.

2 Ph.D. in Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.

Abstract

The automotive industry is undergoing significant transformations due to rapid technological, social, economic, and environmental changes, along with their regional implications. Accordingly, this study aims to identify, prioritize, and analyze the key  macro trends affecting the future of the automotive industry over a ten-year horizon across different geographical contexts. This applied research follows a descriptive approach and was conducted qualitatively using the Fuzzy screening method, which serves as a descriptive-survey analytical tool to address complexities and uncertainties in decision-making processes. The statistical population consisted of 17 experts in the fields of the automotive industry and foresight studies. Their opinions served as the primary data for analysis. Data were analyzed using optimistic and pessimistic fuzzy matrices, and the combined results were used to rank the macro trends impacting the automotive sector. Through library and documentary research, as well as semi-structured interviews, six major trends were identified and prioritized based on five criteria extracted from relevant literature and documents. The results indicate that transformation in transportation technologies holds the highest priority among the identified trends due to its direct impact on reducing environmental pollution, enhancing energy efficiency, and advancing intelligent transportation systems. Social and cultural changes, along with advancements in manufacturing technologies and materials, ranked second, as they are shaping new demands for clean and innovative products in various regions. Innovation in business models ranked third, reflecting the importance of evolving service structures and value chains, particularly in diverse geographical settings. Finally, economic and commercial developments, as well as safety and security considerations, were ranked fourth and fifth, respectively. These findings offer a clear picture of the prioritization of influential macro trends shaping the future of the automotive industry at the regional level and can serve as a foundation for developing localized strategies by policymakers and industry stakeholders.

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References

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Geography and Regional Future Studies
Volume 3, Issue 2 - Serial Number 10
Summer
August 2025
Pages 111-131

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