Analyzing and explaining Russia's strategy for establishing order in the South Caucasus with a future-oriented perspective

Document Type : Original Research Articles

Author

PhD student in International Relations, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran

Abstract

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia, with the aim of preserving its territorial integrity and preventing another collapse by adopting strategies and resorting to various means, has taken steps to establish military bases and expand political influence in the countries of the South Caucasus. Also, Russia, by investing and being present in energy equations and strategic corridors in the region, is now acting as a superior and influential power in the South Caucasus. In the meantime, Russian officials have sought to maintain their sphere of influence in the layers of power in the South Caucasus, which, while preserving the Kremlin's share of the power structure in the region, will contribute significantly to the development of its ambitions and gaining a hegemonic position on the Eurasian chessboard. The present study, with a futures-oriented approach, seeks to answer the main question: What strategy is Russia pursuing for establishing order in the South Caucasus? The hypothesis that can be put forward is that after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the decline of Russian power in the South Caucasus, the Kremlin, with the aim of maintaining its territorial sovereignty through operations to establish order and create political, economic, cultural, and military arrangements, has gained significant influence in the South Caucasus, which has made Russia the dominant power in the region. In the meantime, Moscow authorities are trying to maintain their influence and hegemonic power in the South Caucasus, which, while securing and guaranteeing their interests in the region, allows Russia to influence the decisions of regional governments and thereby preserve the future order and equations of the South Caucasus in favor of the Kremlin and to the detriment of competing actors. This research is qualitative in nature, and in terms of its implementation method, it is of a descriptive-explanatory type that is written with a futures-oriented approach. 

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Geography and Regional Future Studies
Volume 3, Issue 3 - Serial Number 11
Autumn
December 2025
Pages 41-61

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