Identifying and analyzing the indicators affecting urban flooding with a futures research approach (Case study: Talesh city)

Document Type : Original Research Articles

Authors

1 Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Science, Islamic Azad University, Ardabil, Iran

Abstract

Flooding is one of the hazards that has caused a lot of damage in different regions in recent years. Flooding is a devastating and destructive factor and is one of the hazards that causes a lot of financial and human losses every year. The aim of this research is to identify and analyze the key indicators that affect urban flooding in Talesh city. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method with a futures research approach. The Delphi technique, as well as the documentary and field survey methods, were used to collect information. The statistical population of this study was 25 urban experts who were selected based on snowball sampling. Among the 29 main variables that were selected by experts using the Delphi method, based on the experts' scoring in the interaction matrix and entering these scores into the MINMAC software, the results showed that 9 factors were identified as key factors and effective indicators for causing floods in Talesh city, which are: precipitation, vegetation, tree cutting, creation of agricultural lands, development of planning at the county level, county management, plowing in the direction of the slope, development of settlements in the river area, and population density. It is important to note that the creation of agricultural lands based on cutting trees and destroying vegetation and increasing population, and other important factors, in addition to heavy rainfall in the region, are the main cause of flooding in Talesh city.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

Abdali, Y. , Hataminejad, H. , Zanganeh Shahraki, S. , Pourahmad, A. & Salmani, M. (2022). Analysis of Urban Resilience Indicators against Flood Risk with a Futuristic Approach (A Case Study of Khorramabad). Journal of Iran Futures Studies, 7(1), 1-26. doi: 10.30479/jfs.2022.16142.1327 [In Persian]
Ahmadi, Y. , Bazrafshan, O. , Salajeghe, A. , Holisaz, A. & Azareh, A. (2021). Identifying the Factors Affecting Urban Flood Vulnerability in Bandar Abbas with Emphasis on Urban Runoff Management. Urban Economics and Planning, 2(3), 236-246. doi: 10.22034/UE.2021.02.03.10 [In Persian]
Aldiansyah, S., Wardani, F., 2023. Evaluation of flood susceptibility prediction based on a resampling method using machine learning. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 14(3), 937-961. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2023.494.
Bayat-Afshary, N. , Khoejh, S. and Danesh Yazdi, M. (2022). Identification and Analysis of the Dominant Factors Contributing in Intensification of Floods and Damages in the Karkheh Basin in April 2018. Iran-Water Resources Research, 18(3), 92-110. https://www.iwrr.ir/article_159955.html?lang=en [In Persian]
Cao, F., Xu, X., Zhang, C., & Kong, W. (2023). Evaluation of urban flood resilience and its spacetime evolution: A case study of Zhejiang Province, China. Ecological Indicators, 154, 110643.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110643
Dorostkar, H., Yousefi, Y., &  Ramezanzadeh, M., & Roordeh, H. (2015). Assessing the resilience of settlements against flood risk in selected villages of the Nekarud basin, Journal of Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards, 2(7), 15-30. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/264723/fa  [In Persian]
Fasihi, H. (2024). Identifying Environmental Health and its Relationship with Spatial Disparities of Housing Price (Case Study: The City of Hashtpar in Guilan Province, Iran). Geographical Studies of Coastal Areas Journal, 5(3), 61-75. doi: 10.22124/gscaj.2024.25120.1258 [In Persian]
Ghanbari, A. , Mousavi, M. N. , Saied Abadi, R. , Bagheri Kashkoli, A. and Hoseini Amini, H. (2011). Strategies of Enabling Municipality's Income Enhancement In Small Cities (Case Study: Zarch). Geography and Environmental Planning, 22(2), 41-58. https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_18493_en.html  [In Persian]
Ghanbari, S. , Yeganeh, M. & Bemanian, M. R. (2024). Examining the Impact of the Quality of Sustainable Spatial Model Components on the Sense of Belonging among Residents of Rural Houses in the Plain Areas of Guilan Province (Case study: Plain Area of Tālesh City). Geographical Studies of Coastal Areas Journal, 5(4), 57-78. doi: 10.22124/gscaj.2024.26435.1287[In Persian]
Gharedaghy, B. & Ghasemzadeh, A. (2024). A New Forecasting Approach Using the Combination of Machine Learning to Predict Flood Susceptibility (Case Study: Karun Catchment). Iranian Journal of Remote Sensing and GIS, 16(2), 1-18. https://gisj.sbu.ac.ir/article_102813.html?lang=en [In Persian]
Gholamzadehdoab, A. , Kamiabi, S. & Karkabadi, Z. (2022). Assessing the physical vulnerability of Bojnourd city against earthquakes with the approach of sustainable urban development. Sustainable city, 5(1), 149-163. https://www.jscity.ir/article_149416.html?lang=en In Persian]
Godet, M. (2008) Strategic Foresight, Lipsor working paper, France, Paris.
Hessam, R., Zarrabi, A., & Taghvaei, M. (2019). Potential assessment of urban flood risk with a safe urban development approach (case study: Gonbad Kavous city). Environmental Risk Management, 6(1), 17-32. https://sid.ir/paper/402211/fa   [In Persian]
Hossein Nia, E. , Amar, T. and Pourramzan, E. (2023). An Analysis of the Resilience Factors of Rural Economy to Floods (Case Study: The East of Guilan Province). Geographical Studies of Coastal Areas Journal, 3(4), 21-40. doi: 10.22124/gscaj.2022.21500.1140 [In Persian]
Jia, J., Wang, X., Hersi, N. A. M., Zhao, W., & Liu, Y. (2019). Flood-Risk Zoning Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Variable Set Theory. Nat. Hazard. Rev., 20(3), 04019006. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000329
Karami, P. , Eslamnezhad, S. A. , Eftekhari, M. , Akbari, M. & Rastgoo, M. (2023). Flood susceptibility zoning using machine learning improved by genetic algorithm. Journal of Natural Environment, 76(1), 43-60. doi: 10.22059/jne.2022.350170.2485 [In Persian]
Karianne, Ø., Müller, M., Palerme, C., & Tveito, O.E. (2023). Recent changes in circulation patterns and their opposing impact on extreme precipitation at the west coast of Norway. Weather and Climate Extremes 39: 100530, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100530.
Kazemi, M., & Khazaei, S. (2016). Modeling the time of phosgene oxime contamination reaching its maximum level in runoff (Case study: areas adjacent to the Kan River and north of the floodplain west of Tehran). Modern Defense Science and Technology (Non-Active Defense), 7(1), 9-18. https://sid.ir/paper/167408/fa  [In Persian]
Ke, Q., Tian, X., Bricker, J., Tian, Z., Guan, G., Cai, H., Huang, X., Yang, H., & Liu, J. (2020). Urban pluvial flooding prediction by machine learning approaches – a case study of Shenzhen city, China. Advances in Water Resources, 145, 103719. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2020.103719
Maleki, Y. (2021), Explanation and evaluation of land use against floods with a passive defense approach (case study: Ravansar city), Master's thesis in Geography and Urban Planning, Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Payam Noor University, Paveh Branch, February, Supervisor: Dr. Kamran Noori.  [In Persian]
Mirzaali, M. (2018). Assessing the resilience of villages in the Gorganrood watershed in the face of floods, PhD thesis, Department of Geography and Rural Planning, Payam Noor University, Graduate Education Center, Department of Geographical Sciences. [In Persian]
Mirzaali, M., Nazari, A., & Ong, M. (2018). Measuring the physical dimensions of resilience of rural communities in the face of floods (Case study: Gorganrood watershed). Physical Planning and Development, 3(11), 111-133. https://sid.ir/paper/374636/fa  [In Persian]
Mohammadidehcheshme, M., & Hajipour, N. (2024). Future Studies of the Urban Governance Challenges in the Face of Climate Change with Emphasis on the Flood Crisis (The Case study: Ahvaz Metropolis). Regional Planning, 14(53), 61-80. doi: 10.30495/jzpm.2022.29126.3984 [In Persian]
Motieei Langroodi, S. , Ghadirye Masoum, M. , Eskandari chopoglo, H. , Toorani, A. and Khosravimehr, H. (2015). The Study the Role of Participatory Management to Reduce Flood Impacts (Case Study: Rurals of River Basin Zngmar Maku city). Journal of Geography and Planning, 19(51), 311-339. https://geoplanning.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_3451.html  [In Persian]
Mousavi, M., Jafarpour Ghalehteimouri, K., Alizadeh, I., Bahramijaf, S., & Shamsoddini, A. (2024). The Impact of Urban Governance on Enhancing Resilience in Informal Settlements: A Case Study from Jafarabad, Kermanshah. Journal of Urban Development and Management, 3, 95–108. doi: 10.56578/judm030202
Nahid, M., Zand Moghadam, M., & Karkehabad, Z. (2012). Measuring and evaluating the level of resilience against urban flood risk (Case study: Tehran region 4). Rangeland and Watershed Management (Iranian Natural Resources), 74 (1), 189-205. https://sid.ir/paper/390276/fa  [In Persian]
Nazari, A., Mirzaali, M., & Taleshi, M. (2019). The effects of economic factors on the resilience of flooded villagers; a case study of villages on the outskirts of Gorganrood. Geographical Research, 34 (133), 333-346. https://sid.ir/paper/390422/fa  [In Persian]
PourAhmad, A. , Ziyari, K. & Sadeghi, A. (2018). Spatial Analysis of Physical Resilience Components of Urban attrited/beaten tissues against Earthquakes (Case Study: District 10 of Tehran Municipality). Spatial Planning, 8(1), 111-130. doi: 10.22108/sppl.2018.109941.1178 [In Persian]
Rahimi, H. (2019), Investigating the Resilience of Khorramabad City Against Environmental Hazards with Emphasis on Flooding, Master's Thesis, Urban Planning, Supervisor: Mahmoud Jumapour, Faculty of Social Sciences, Allameh Tabatabaei University. [In Persian]
Rahimpour, T. , Rezaei Moghaddam, M. H. , Hejazi, S. A. & Vlaizadeh Kamran, K. (2023). Flood Susceptibility Modeling in the Aland Chai Basin using New Ensemble Classification Approach (FURIA-GA-LogitBoost). Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 12(1), 1-24. doi: 10.22067/geoeh.2022.74170.1141 [In Persian]
Rezayi Moghadam, M. H. & Rahimpour, T. (2024). Evaluating of Flood hazard potential using bivariate statistical analysis method (Case study: Aji Chai basin). Quantitative Geomorphological Research, 12(4), 91-107. doi: 10.22034/gmpj.2024.429929.1473 [In Persian]
Rostami Fathabadi, M., Jafar Biglo, M. & Moghimi, E. (2020). Spatial analysis of flooded and flood-prone areas and it’s hazards in Nourabad city of Lorestan. Environmental Management Hazards, 7(3), 313-329. doi: 10.22059/jhsci.2020.310534.609 [In Persian]
Ruan, J., Chen, Y., & Yang, Z. (2021). Assessment of temporal and spatial progress of urban resilience in Guangzhou under rainstorm scenarios. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 66, 102578. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102578
Safaeepoor, M., & Moradi, H. (2023). Identifying the key drivers affecting the future development of religious tourism in Mehran city. Quarterly Journal of Future Cities Perspectives, 4(3), 103-124. https://jvfc.ir/article-1-254-fa.html [In Persian]
Salmani, M., Kazemi Sani Ataallah, N., S. Ali B., & Motavaf, S. (2016). Identifying and Analyzing the Impact Resilience Indicators in the Rural Areas of North and Northeast Tehran. Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazards, 3(2), 1-22.  https://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2557-fa.html  [In Persian]
Statistical Center of Iran. (2016). Country's Settlements Identification Card. General Population and Housing Census, Gilan Province. [In Persian]
Sun, R., Shi, S., Reheman, Y., & Li, S. (2022). Measurement of urban flood resilience using a quantitative model based on the correlation of vulnerability and resilience. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 82, 103344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103344
Tahmasebi, Q. , Mohammadi, A. & Bouchani, M. H. (2021). Spatial Analysis of the Factors Effective on Flood Occurrence in Ilam City. Town and Country Planning, 13(1), 21-56. doi: 10.22059/jtcp.2021.314126.670179 [In Persian]
Wang, S. S.-Y., Kim, H., Coumou, D., Yoon, J.-H., Zhao, L., & Gillies, R. R. (2019). Consecutive extreme flooding and heat wave in Japan: Are they becoming a norm? Atmos. Sci. Lett., 20(10), e933. doi: 10.1002/asl.933
Zali, N. & Atrian, F. (2016). Presentation of Tourism Regional Development scenarios Based on the Principles of Futures Studies (Case: Hamadan Province). Town and Country Planning, 8(1), 107-131. doi: 10.22059/jtcp.2016.59147   [In Persian]
Zarabi, A. , Zarabi, A. , Mousavi, M. N. and Mousavi, M. N. (2009). A Survey on Function of Small Cities in the Urban System and Regional Development(Case Study: Yazd Province). Geography and Environmental Planning, 20(2), 1-18. https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_18434.html?lang=en  [In Persian]
Geography and Regional Future Studies
Volume 3, Issue 3 - Serial Number 11
Autumn
December 2025
Pages 80-94

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics