Foresight analysis of rural-urban population mobility from Gorak Rural District, Sardasht, to the city of Rabat and the developmental consequences for the origin areas

Document Type : Original Research Articles

Authors

1 Master's degree in Spatial Planning, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.

Abstract

Population movements within a geographical area have two directions—origin and destination—where the population of the origin community decreases while that of the destination community increases. The most significant example of population mobility is rural–urban migration, which appears in the form of leaving the village to live in the city. The present study aims to explain and evaluate rural–urban population mobility in the Gurek Rural District of Sardasht County and to examine the impact of economic, social, and environmental indicators on the migration flow from the villages of this district to the city of Rabat and surrounding cities. The research method is descriptive–analytical. Using Cochran’s formula, a sample size of 345 people was obtained, selected randomly. The research tool was a questionnaire, and SPSS software was used for data analysis. The reliability of the questionnaire was calculated using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for economic (0.843), social (0.824), and environmental (0.745) indicators. To analyze the hypotheses, statistical tests such as mean, variance, and Pearson correlation were used. Charts and maps were also created using Excel and ArcGIS software. The findings indicate that in the first hypothesis, the Pearson correlation matrix between social and economic indicators showed a significance level of sig = 0.000 at the 99% confidence level, indicating a significant and relatively strong relationship between the variables. In the second hypothesis, T and F mean-difference tests for all social variables and demographic characteristics showed a significance level (P ≤ 0.05) at the 95% confidence level. In the third hypothesis, the significance level obtained between environmental variables and demographic structure was (P ≥ 0.05), indicating that there is no significant relationship between these variables. The final results of this study show that there is a significant relationship between social, economic, and environmental factors and population mobility and rural–urban migration in the Gurek Rural District. Therefore, examining and paying attention to the economic, social, and environmental issues of residents is essential in understanding the region’s population mobility dynamics.

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Main Subjects

References

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Geography and Regional Future Studies
Volume 3, Issue 4 - Serial Number 12
Winter
December 2026
Pages 132-148

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