Identifying factors affecting housing prices with a foresight approach (Case study: Birjand city)

Document Type : Original Research Articles

Authors

1 Ph.D. student Department of Geography and Urban Planning, ZAH.C, Islamic Azad University, Zahedan, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, ZAH.C, Islamic Azad University, Zahedan, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, ZAH.C, Islamic Azad University, Zahedan, Iran

10.30466/grfs.2026.56780.1175

Abstract

Housing has been one of the most important assets of households throughout history. By examining the factors affecting housing prices, planning and decisions can be made about the future of housing. The purpose of this research is to investigate the factors affecting housing prices in Birjand. The type of research is applied and its method is quantitative and using regression. In the present study, using statistical evidence at the provincial level for the period 1385-1402 and applying the autoregressive econometric approach with a distributional lag, the factors affecting the increase in housing prices were examined. In this study, both the short-term and long-term relationships of the factors affecting housing prices were examined. Based on the results of the long-term relationship, payment facilities had a negative effect on housing prices. Inflation had a positive effect on housing prices. An increase in the inflation rate leads to an increase in prices due to an increase in inflationary expectations. Also, the cost of construction had a positive and significant effect on the increase in housing prices in the long term. Also, the effect of land prices on housing costs in this model was negative. Also, the effect of housing sector investment, population growth, and bank interest rates on housing prices has not been significant in the long run.

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