Document Type : Original Research Articles
Authors
1
PhD student in Agricultural Development, Department of Rural Development, University of Tabriz
2
Ph.D. in Geography and Rural Planning, Lecturer at Farhangian University, Tabriz, Iran.
3
Associate Professor, Department of Extension and Rural Development, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
10.30466/grfs.2026.56826.1180
Abstract
Rapid demographic shifts and the precipitous decline in fertility rates in Iran have evolved beyond mere statistical changes into a complex puzzle with profound cultural roots. The present study aims to identify the key cultural drivers of fertility decline and design scenarios for population growth, thereby bridging the existing gap in future-oriented policy solutions by moving beyond purely causal and retrospective studies. The research method is applied in purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature, utilizing a mixed-methods approach within a foresight paradigm. In the quantitative phase, a scientometric analysis was conducted on global big data (2000–2023) using VOSviewer software. In the qualitative phase, data were gathered via a panel of 25 experts and executives selected through purposive sampling and processed using structural analysis models (MICMAC) and cross-impact analysis (Scenario Wizard). The face and content validity of the tools were confirmed by specialists, and reliability was established based on the consensus coefficient and stability of expert opinions. Findings revealed six key drivers: "Modernization's impact on women's attitudes," "Dynamic population policies," "Psychological transition to self-control," "Devaluation of the mother's role," "Lifestyle modernization," and "Individualism in marriage." Furthermore, scenario planning identified two compatible scenarios - "Managing modernization consequences" and "Controlling extreme individualism"-as the most probable paths for success. Ultimately, by demonstrating the inefficiency of purely financial incentives against deep value shifts, this study concludes that filling the current policy gap depends on a transition from mandatory policies to "cultural engineering" and the smart management of the tradition-modernity conflict within the family context.
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