Analysis of the security foundations of the water crisis issue in the Gavkhoni Watershed

Document Type : Original Research Articles

Authors

1 Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Population growth, agricultural development, and rapid urbanization, accompanied by climate change and increased demand for water resources, have seriously challenged the security and equitable access to water resources. In recent decades, the Central Plateau basin and especially the Gavkhoni watershed have experienced a water scarcity crisis. This crisis has disrupted economic activities and ecosystem sustainability while generating tensions among stakeholders, leading to the securitization of water issues in this basin. This study, employing a descriptive-analytical approach and a systemic perspective, examines the securitization of the water crisis in the Gavkhoni watershed. Required data were collected through library research and field methods, including interviews and questionnaires, then analyzed using the MICMAC, Scenario Wizard, and Vensim software. Findings indicate that key factors influencing the securitization of the water crisis in this basin include: equity in water allocation, the influence of Isfahan province officials at the national level, inter-provincial competition, the role of foreign security services, multiple water transfer projects from the Kohrang source, agricultural productivity rates, and the impact of national media on the analysis of regional water issues. The results show that the securitization status of the water crisis in the Gavkhoni watershed, at 30.43%, is on the verge of a critical situation. The most likely scenario identified is the "convergence of competitive interests and water scarcity," highlighting the need for special attention in management and policymaking. This study, due to the combination of quantitative and qualitative methods and its focus on the future status of the watershed, provides a novel perspective for policymakers and planners for the sustainable management of water resources.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Geography and Regional Future Studies
Volume 4, Issue 2 - Serial Number 14
Summer
August 2026
Pages 1-21

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