Identifying tourism drivers in Qom province and scenario development with a future studies approach

Document Type : Original Research Articles

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Hazrat-e Masoumeh University, Qom, Iran

2 Assistance Professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Hazrat-e Masoumeh University, Qom, Iran

3 Master's degree of Islamic art from Kashan University and Cultural Heritage, Tourism and Handicrafts Expert. Qom, Iran

Abstract

The emergence of new technologies has introduced dynamism and complexity into the social sphere, particularly in defining and shaping tourism and attractions based on people's preferences and needs. In this context, the primary objective of this study is to identify the key drivers of tourism in Qom Province and develop future scenarios using a futures studies approach. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive in nature, employing a mixed-methods approach. The participants in the qualitative and quantitative phases included experts, university professors, tourism professionals with at least five years of relevant experience, and officials from executive bodies responsible for tourism affairs. In the qualitative phase, theoretical saturation was achieved through purposive sampling and interviews with 25 individuals. In the quantitative phase, prioritization was conducted by distributing questionnaires among 46 participants. For data analysis, a Futures studies approach was used in the qualitative phase, while the mean method was applied in the quantitative phase. The research findings indicate that when developing tourism attraction scenarios for Qom Province, two key drivers must be considered: (1) generational and lifestyle changes versus generational and lifestyle stability and (2) preference for historical and religious sites versus attraction to natural and modern attractions. These contrasting dynamics play a crucial role in shaping future tourism development strategies for the region. Based on the findings of this study, scenarios were identified and labeled as plausible future scenarios for Qom's tourism attractions.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Geography and Regional Future Studies
Volume 4, Issue 2 - Serial Number 14
Summer
August 2026
Pages 43-60

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