Document Type : Original Research Articles
Authors
1
Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Yadegar-e-Emam (RAH) Shahre Rey Branch, Tehran, Iran.
2
Department of Geography, Shi.C., Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran
3
Department of Urban Planning, Safashahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Safashahr, Iran
10.30466/grfs.2026.57264.1247
Abstract
With the increasing complexity of environmental, physical, and security-related challenges confronting metropolitan areas, strategic foresight of urban livability has emerged as a fundamental imperative in contemporary urban planning. In this context, integrating passive defense principles with urban livability approaches can play a pivotal role in enhancing urban resilience, reducing vulnerability, and improving citizens’ quality of life. Accordingly, the present study aims to develop a strategic foresight framework for the livability of District 22 of Tehran Metropolis through a passive defense perspective based on the NOISE analytical model.In terms of purpose, the research is applied in nature, while methodologically it adopts a descriptive–analytical approach. Employing a solution-oriented analytical framework, the study identifies priority clusters, key performance indicators, and strategic pathways required to achieve sustainable urban livability. The statistical population consisted of 20 experts, including university scholars, municipal managers, and passive defense specialists, who were selected through purposive sampling. Data were collected using a researcher-developed questionnaire. The findings revealed that among the 24 extracted clusters, five clusters require immediate strategic attention. Notably, the cluster entitled “Development of Water Supply and Wastewater Infrastructure” ranked first with a weighted score of 4.96. Furthermore, the clusters of “Provision of Public Services” and “Structural Reinforcement and Passive Defense Measures” achieved weighted scores of 4.59 and 4.55, respectively, and were identified as the most influential drivers for enhancing urban livability
The results further indicate that achieving the strategic objectives of District 22 necessitates substantial investment in critical infrastructure development, the promotion of spatial justice, the expansion of safe and multimodal transportation systems, the establishment of multifunctional emergency shelters, the extension of the metropolitan rail transit network, and the attraction of private-sector investment. Collectively, these measures constitute the essential foundations for fostering a resilient, secure, and sustainable urban environment capable of responding effectively to future challenges and uncertainties
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