Futures studies of the Iranian–Islamic city of Tabriz using structural analysis (MICMAC) and scenario planning

Document Type : Original Research Articles

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.

2 PhD Candidate, Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.

Abstract

Tabriz, as the most significant political, economic, and cultural hub in northwestern Iran, has in recent years encountered growing challenges in the fields of urban management and future-oriented planning. In a context where rapid social, economic, technological, and environmental transformations have intensified uncertainties in urban development, adopting a futures studies approach can provide an effective basis for identifying influential drivers and designing realistic scenarios to guide the city's future. This study was conducted within a positivist paradigm and through a quantitative approach, employing a combination of the Delphi method and structural cross-impact analysis (MICMAC) to identify and analyze the relationships among the factors shaping the future of Tabriz. Based on expert opinions, 17 key variables were extracted and evaluated using a 17×17 matrix. The MICMAC results indicate that the urban system of Tabriz exhibits high dynamism and instability, with considerable interactions among the variables. Moreover, the variables of urban governance, urban development pattern, urban economy, innovation, smart technologies (ICT), and Islamic principles were located in the high influence–high dependence quadrant and identified as the strategic drivers of Tabriz’s future. These drivers play the most significant role in altering the system’s state and shape the overarching direction of future scenarios. Subsequently, using Scenario Wizard software, three strong, weak, and plausible scenarios were developed, and the compatible scenario was selected as the preferred one. The scenario analysis reveals that achieving a sustainable and desirable future for Tabriz depends on strengthening effective governance, expanding technological infrastructure, enhancing the urban economy, improving innovative capacities, and simultaneously reinforcing social and cultural structures. These findings can serve as a basis for developing forward-looking urban policies and effective planning strategies aimed at realizing a sustainable development model for the city of Tabriz.

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References

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Geography and Regional Future Studies
Volume 4, Issue 3 - Serial Number 15
Autumn
December 2026
Pages 61-81

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