Identifying the drivers affecting urban waste management with a futures research approach: A case study of Ardabil

Document Type : Original Research Articles

Authors

1 PhD Student, Department of Geography, Faculty of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Ardabil, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Ard. C., Islamic Azad University, Ardabil, Iran.

Abstract

Environmental risks resulting from waste mismanagement are considered one of the fundamental problems of urban management in the country, and this forces urban managers to examine urban issues with planning and foresight. The city of Ardabil is no exception, and it is necessary to improve the waste management of this city. The aim of this futures research is to identify key drivers that are effective in improving urban waste management in Ardabil. This research was conducted based on futures research methods and using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Given its nature, we used the structural analysis method, MICMAC software, and a Delphi survey. In this regard, after holding numerous meetings with 24 experts, a total of 54 variables were selected as the statistical population of the study. Subsequently, the effective components were examined within the framework of the interaction matrix in the MICMAC software, and 15 factors were identified as the main and driving factors in urban waste management in Ardabil. Among these variables, social trust, development of participatory social values, educational and cultural programs, consumption patterns and consumerism, waste disposal location, waste disposal method, behavioral and environmental attitudinal dimensions, comprehensive waste management plan, geographical location, protection of the earth's natural resources, reform of existing laws, The service performance of municipalities, settlement structure and system, gross domestic product, and access to sufficient land for landfilling have had the greatest impact. If the urban managers of Ardabil pay attention to these key variables, we can expect improved planning and development in Ardabil in the field of urban waste management.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Geography and Regional Future Studies
Volume 4, Issue 3 - Serial Number 15
Autumn
December 2026
Pages 1-21

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