رویکردها و روش‌های آینده‌پژوهی و سناریونگاری در برنامه‌ریزی شهری و منطقه‌ای

آفتاب, احمد

doi:10.30466/grfs.2023.121360

رویکردها و روش‌های آینده‌پژوهی و سناریونگاری در برنامه‌ریزی شهری و منطقه‌ای

نوع مقاله : مقاله نظری

نویسنده

احمد آفتاب

دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

10.30466/grfs.2023.121360

چکیده

مشکلات کنونی برنامه‌ریزی شهری، ناشی از عدم شناخت دقیق آینده شهرها و مسائل مربوط به آن است. اگر وضعیت امروز جامعه نتیجه آینده‌نگری زمان گذشته بوده پس اشکالات عدیده‌ای در شیوه برنامه‌ریزی و نحوه شناخت ما از آینده در گذشته برای برنامه‌ریزان شهری آن زمان وجود داشته است. این موضوع نشان می‌دهد که آینده‌پژوهی به عنوان یک علم فرارشته‌ای در فرایند برنامه‌ریزی شهری و شهرسازی جایگاه ویژه‌ای دارد که ضرورت تدوین چشم اندازهای آینده برنامه‌ریزی شهری را رقم می‌زند و ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻧﮕﺎری ﺑﻪﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮏ اﺑﺰار ﻗﻮی در ﻣﯿﺎن روش‌ﻫﺎی آﯾﻨﺪه‌ﭘﮋوﻫﯽ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﺎ درک ﻧﯿﺮوﻫﺎی ﭘﯿﺸﺮان و ﻋﺪمﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖﻫﺎ، در ﻗﺎﻟﺐ رواﯾﺖ داﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎی ﭼﻨﺪﮔﺎﻧﻪ از آﯾﻨﺪه، ﮐﻤﮏ زﯾﺎدی ﺑﺮای روﺷﻦ ﺷﺪن ﻓﻀﺎی ﻣﺒﻬﻢ آﯾﻨﺪه ﺑﺮای ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰان و ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮان ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. این مقاله در عرصه فرارشته‌ای با رویکرد بنیادی دارای جهت‌گیری توصیفی ـ تحلیلی می‌باشد و با مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای و اسنادی تلاش دارد پارادایم‌های آینده‌پژوهی را در سطوح هستی‌شناسی، معرفت‌شناسی و روش‌شناسی بررسی نماید. سپس، با تبیین مفاهیم و ساختارهای فکری این حوزه، ابزارها و روش‌های آینده‌پژوهی و سناریونگاری را واکاوی کرده و با ارائه یک مدل ترکیبی از روش‌های آینده‌پژوهی در جهت ایجاد هماهنگی بین روش‌های گوناگون، امکان به‌کارگیری هدفمند آن‌ها در موقعیت‌های تحقیقاتی مختلف برای پژوهشگران فراهم کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

20.1001.1.2981118.1402.1.1.6.0

موضوعات

سکونتگاه‌های شهری و برنامه‌ریزی منطقه‌ای

عنوان مقاله [English]

Approaches and methods of futurology and scenario planning in urban and regional planning

نویسنده [English]

Ahmad Aftab

Ph.D. in Geography and Urban planning, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Current problems of urban planning, the lack of detailed knowledge about the future of cities and issues; If today is the result of foresight in the past; After numerous bugs in the way of planning and urban planners in the past for the future of our understanding of the time there. This show that the futurology as an interdisciplinary science of urban planning necessary to develop a special place that marks the future prospects of urban planning and Scenario can be a powerful tool among the methods futurology by understanding the driving forces and uncertainties, in the form of multiple stories of the future, helping to clarify the future ambiguous space for planning and decision making. This paper is in the field of interdisciplinary with the fundamental approach has Analytical-descriptive and Tries with library studies and documents review the futurology studies paradigms in the levels of ontology, epistemology and methodology. Then, to clarify the concepts and structures of thought in the field, Analyze the Tools and methods of Futurology and scenario And by providing A model combination of Futurology methods In order to create harmony between the various methods, Provide Possibility of using target them In various research position for researchers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Interdisciplinary science
Futurology
Scenarios
Approaches
Methods
Urban planning

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دوره 1، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 1
تابستان
شهریور 1402
صفحه 82-107

تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 366
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 403

رویکردها و روش‌های آینده‌پژوهی و سناریونگاری در برنامه‌ریزی شهری و منطقه‌ای

Approaches and methods of futurology and scenario planning in urban and regional planning

مراجع

دوره 1، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 1
تابستان
شهریور 1402
صفحه 82-107

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار

رویکردها و روش‌های آینده‌پژوهی و سناریونگاری در برنامه‌ریزی شهری و منطقه‌ای

Approaches and methods of futurology and scenario planning in urban and regional planning

مراجع

دوره 1، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 1تابستانشهریور 1402صفحه 82-107

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار

دوره 1، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 1
تابستان
شهریور 1402
صفحه 82-107