آینده‌نگاری توسعه فضایی ناحیه‌های پیراشهری (مورد پژوهی: محدوده جنوبی منطقه 19 کلان‌شهر تهران)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

2 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری (آمایش شهری)، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر، "ادراک سناریوهای توسعه فضایی محدوده جنوبی منطقه 19" و هدف کلان آن، "برقراری انسجام و یکپارچگی با عناصر ساختی منطقه 19" در کلان‌شهر تهران است. عوامل کلیدی مرتبط با تحول‌های فضایی در محدوده جنوبی منطقه 19 به تعداد 31 مورد در سه مقیاس محلی، منطقه‌ای ـ ناحیه‌ای و ملی ـ فراملی با بررسی منابع مختلف و پس از رایزنی با 30 نفر از متخصصان و کارشناسان، شناسایی شدند. ابزار پژوهش، پرسشنامه ماتریس اثرات متقابل می‌باشد و پردازش آن با استفاده از نرم‌افزار Micmac صورت گرفته است. فرایند سناریونویسی نیز پس از تعیین نیروهای پیشران اجرا شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد منطقه 19 تهران یکی از نقاط هدف تغییرات شدید کاربری و ایجاد سکونتگاه‌های پیرامونی به دلیل مهاجرت‌های روستایی و جابجایی جمعیت درون‌شهری بوده و برایند آن، ناهنجاری‌ها در روند توسعه و آشفتگی سیمایی قلمرو مکانی تحقیق بوده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که منطقه 19 در چند دهه گذشته دارای رشد شدید و همراه با تراکم پایین از نظر توسعه فضایی بوده است. توسعه فضایی محدوده جنوبی منطقه 19 با سه سناریو در آینده روبه‌رو خواهد شد که عبارتند از الف) سناریوی توسعه فشرده در مرزهای کنونی منطقه، ب) سناریوی توسعه خطی در محورهای اصلی ارتباطی همراه با تراکم پایین و پ) سناریوی توسعه آشفته در تمام جهت‌های جغرافیایی. سناریوی مطلوب برای منطقه 19 با توجه به ویژگی‌های اجتماعی ـ فرهنگی، کالبدی ـ محیطی، اقتصادی ـ خدماتی، سیاسی ـ اداری و مدیریتی، توسعه فشرده در مرزهای کنونی منطقه (سناریوی یکم) است و خاستگاه اصلی سیاست‌های توسعه فضایی منطقه می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Future Study of the Spatial Development of the Peri-Urban Areas (Case Study: Southern Range of the 19th District of Tehran Megalopolis)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Soleimani Mehrnejani 1
  • Amin Shahsavar 2
  • Nader Ebadi Gharebaba 2
1 Professor, Department of Human Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
2 MSc in Geography and Urban Planning (Urban Spatial Arrangement), Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The main goal of the current research is to "perceive the spatial development scenarios of the southern area of the 19th district" and its macro goal is to "establish coherence and integration with the structural elements of the 19th region" in Tehran megalopolis. The key factors related to the spatial changes in the southern range of the 19th district were identified as 31 cases in three local, regional-areal and national-transnational scales by examining various sources and after consulting with 30 experts. The research tool is the Cross Impact Matrix questionnaire and its analysis has been done using Micmac software. The scenario writing process has also been implemented after determining the driving forces. The results show that the 19th district of Tehran is one of the target points of severe land use changes and the creation of peripheral settlements due to rural migrations and the displacement of the inner-city population, and consequently, the anomalies in the development process and the visual disturbance. The findings show that the 19th district has had strong growth and low density in terms of spatial development in the past few decades. The spatial development of the southern range of the 19th district will face three scenarios in the future, which are a) intensive development scenario in the current ranges of the district, b) linear development scenario in the main communication roads with low density and c) chaotic development scenario in all geographical directions. The optimal scenario for the 19th district is intensive development in the current ranges of the district (scenario 1) according to the social-cultural, physical-environmental, economic-service, political-administrative and management characteristics, and it’s the main origin of spatial development policies of the region.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Future Study
  • Cross Impact Matrix
  • Scenario Planning
  • Spatial Development
  • Peri-Urban Area
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