آینده‌پژوهی بازآفرینی بافت‌های ناکارآمد در مناطق شهری (موردمطالعه: شهر فردیس، استان البرز)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه شهید چمران، اهواز، ایران

2 کارشناسی ارشد گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

3 پژوهشگر دکتری گروه شهرسازی، دانشکده معماری و شهرسازی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قزوین، ایران

چکیده

از جمله مسائلی که در شهر فردیس مشهود است و طرح بازآفرینی جامع و آینده‌محوری را برای آن می‌طلبد، وجود بافت فرسوده و سکونتگاه غیررسمی است که با توجه به تعداد جمعیت آن، از تراکم فیزیکی قابل‌توجهی برخوردار است. جامعه آماری پژوهش، ساکنان شهر فردیس است و برای تعیین حجم نمونه، تعداد 30 نفر از کارشناسان و متخصصان به ترتیب الف) برای تدقیق پیشران‌ها با استفاده از روش دلفی، ب) تکمیل ماتریس اثرات متقاطع و ورود آن به نرم‌افزار Micmac و پ) تعیین سطح اهمیت و عدم قطعیت عوامل کلیدی برگزیده شدند. روش دلفی فرایندی ساختار یافته برای جمع‌آوری و طبقه‌بندی دانش موجود در نزد متخصصان است. در تحلیل اثرات متقاطع، روابط متقابل در میان خرده سیستم‌های گوناگون بررسی می‌شود. بر اساس داده‌های نرم‌افزار، مسئله مالکیت با امتیاز 73 به‌عنوان اثرگذارترین و آشفتگی سیما و منظر با امتیاز 77 به‌منزله اثرپذیریت نیروهای پیشران مشخص شدند. عوامل کلیدی تحقیق برای ایجاد منطق سناریو عبارت‌اند از مسئله مالکیت، عدم تطبیق با طرح‌های توسعه شهری، فقدان نظارت شهرداری، سطح اقتصادی پایین، اتخاذ تصمیم‌های غیراصولی، فقدان تجانس در میان پارسل‌های موجود، عدم نگرش جامع به منطقه، ارگانیکی بودن بافت، نبود طرح منسجم توسعه بافت. با توجه به سطح اهمیت بازآفرینی برای بافت ناکارآمد شهر فردیس و نظر به رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی در پژوهش، سه سناریو با محوریت مسئله مالکیت، سطح اقتصادی پایین و نبود طرح منسجم توسعه بافت تدوین می‌شود که در این میان سناریوی 1 به‌عنوان مطلوب‌ترین و سناریوی 3 به‌عنوان بحرانی‌ترین مورد برای محدوده مطالعاتی در شهر فردیس موردتوجه است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Future studies on regeneration of the inefficient textures in urban areas (Case study: Fardis City, Alborz Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeed Maleki 1
  • Zari Hassani 2
  • Parya Khoshnoud Moghadam 3
1 Professor of Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz, Iran.
2 MSc in the Department of Human Geography, Faculty of Geography Science, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
3 PhD Researcher in the Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Among the issues that are evident in Fardis City and require a comprehensive and future-oriented regeneration plan is the existence of worn-out texture and settlements, which have a significant physical density considering their population. The statistical population of the research is the residents of Fardis City, and to determine the sample size, 30 experts and specialists were selected, respectively, for a) specifying the reasons using the Delphi method, b) completing the cross-impacts matrix and entering it into the MicMac software, and c) determining the level of importance and uncertainty of key factors. The Delphi method is a structured process for collecting and classifying the knowledge available to experts. In cross-impact analysis, the interrelationships among various subsystems are examined. Based on the data, the ownership issue with a score of 73 was identified as the most effective and the disturbance of the image and landscape with a score of 77 was identified as the most susceptible driving force. Key factors include ownership issues, non-compliance with urban development plans, lack of municipal oversight, low economic level, unprincipled decision-making, lack of homogeneity among existing parcels, lack of a comprehensive attitude to the region, organic nature of the texture, and lack of a coherent texture development plan. Considering the importance of regeneration for the inefficient urban texture of Fardis and considering the future studies approach in the research, three scenarios are developed focusing on the ownership issue, low economic level, and lack of a coherent urban development plan. Based on the results, scenario 1 is considered the most desirable and scenario 3 is considered the worst for the area under study in Fardis.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Future Studies
  • Inefficient Texture
  • Urban Regeneration
  • Fardis City

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جغرافیا و آینده پژوهی منطقه‌ای
دوره 2، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 6
پاییز
آذر 1403
صفحه 110-124

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