تحلیل آینده پایدار بافت فرسوده با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی (نمونه موردی: مناطق تاریخی شهر ارومیه)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار، جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران.

چکیده

در جهان معاصر با پیشرفت سریع علم و تکنولوژی، سیستم برنامه‌ریزی شهری نیز با دگرگونی‌هایی مواجه شده است. آثار آن‌ها می‌تواند جهت پیشرفت شهر چالش‌برانگیز باشد. برنامه‌ریزی شهری که قبلاً مبتنی بر سیستم سنتی بوده است. امروزه به نظر می‌رسد از توازن و پاسخگویی لازم جهت اصلاح و حل مشکل بافت‌های فرسوده برخوردار نیست؛ بنابراین رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی به برنامه ریزان کمک می‌کند تا آینده را بهتر دیده و از پیامدهای منفی به‌ویژه در بافت‌های قدیمی تا حد امکان جلوگیری نماید. آینده‌پژوهی بافت‌های فرسوده به‌منظور ارتقاء سطح زندگی و رونق شهری در سال‌های آتی ضروری به نظر می‌رسد. این پژوهش از نظر ماهیت از نوع تحقیقات کاربردی و به لحاظ داده از نوع تحقیقات کمی محسوب می‌شود که به روش توصیفی - تحلیلی انجام‌شده است. گردآوری داده‌ها از نظرات متخصصین و کارشناسان در قالب فرم‌های نظرسنجی، تهیه و برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها از تکنیک آینده‌پژوهی استفاده‌شده است. ابزار تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها در این پژوهش نیز نرم‌افزار Micmac بوده است. هدف اصلی این تحقیق دستیابی به سناریوهای پیش روی بافت قدیمی کلان‌شهر ارومیه در افق 1420 است. مهم‌ترین عوامل کلیدی و پیشران در رابطه با آینده‌پژوهی بافت فرسوده در بافت قدیم شهر ارومیه شناسایی گردید. نتایج این تحقیق نشان می‌دهد 13 عامل کلیدی در آینده بافت قدیمی شهر ارومیه تأثیرگذار خواهد بود؛ و سپس با توجه به عوامل کلیدی شناخته‌شده سناریوها در چهار حالت (سفید، خاکستری، نارنجی و سیاه) برای بافت قدیمی پیش‌بینی‌شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the sustainable future of worn-out fabric with a future studies approach (Case study: historical areas of Urmia city)

نویسنده [English]

  • Ayoub Manouchehri Miandoab
Assistant Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.
چکیده [English]

In the contemporary world, with the rapid advances in science and technology, the urban planning system has also faced changes. Urban planning which was previously based on the traditional system, seems not to have the necessary balance and responsiveness to correct and solve the problem of worn-out tissues anymore. Therefore, the future research approach helps planners to see the future better and prevent negative consequences, especially in old fabrics. Future studies on worn-out tissues seem necessary in order to improve the standard of living and urban prosperity in the coming years. In terms of its nature, this research is considered to be applied research and in terms of data, it is quantitative research, which was carried out by descriptive-analytical method. Collecting data from the opinions of specialists and experts in the form of survey forms, and using prospective research techniques for data analysis, the data analysis tool in this research was Micmac software. The main goal of this research is to achieve the scenarios facing the old fabric of the Urmia metropolis by 1420. The most important driving factors were identified in relation to future research on worn-out fabric in Urmia. The results of this research show that 13 key factors will be influential in the future of the old fabric of Urmia city, then, according to the known key factors, the scenarios are predicted in four modes (white, grey, orange and black) for the old texture.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Texture
  • Worn-out
  • Sustainable
  • Future research
  • Urmia
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