تحلیل ساختاری سیاست‌های حمل‌ونقل پایدار شهری در راستای آینده زیست‌پذیری شهر تهران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.

2 گروه شهرسازی، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه پردیس بین‌الملل کیش واحد تهران جنوب، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

برنامه‌ریزی شهری و حمل‌ونقل مرتبط با آن تأثیر عمیقی بر پایداری و زیست‌پذیری یک شهر دارد و کیفیت زندگی ساکنان شهری را تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد. در این راستا پژوهش حاضر با هدف تحلیل ساختاری سیاست‌های حمل‌ونقل پایدار شهری در راستای آینده زیست‌پذیری شهر تهران با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی تهیه‌شده است. روش پژوهش مبتنی بر رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی است و از لحاظ هدف کاربردی و به لحاظ نوع توصیفی-تحلیلی می‌باشد. مبنای گردآوری اطلاعات روش کتابخانه‌ای، اسنادی و پیمایشی و بر اساس روش دلفی بوده است. جامعه آماری خبرگان متخصص در مطالعات شهری می‌باشند که حجم نمونه به‌صورت هدفمند با روش نمونه‌گیری گلوله برفی 70 نفر به انتخاب شدند. در بخش تجزیه‌وتحلیل برای ارزیابی، زمینه‌سازی و رتبه‌بندی شاخص‌ها از روش ماتریس اثرات متقابل (MICMAC) و از برای تدوین سناریوهای نهایی از سناریو ویزارد استفاده‌شده است. نتایج نشان داد که شاخص‌های کاهش انتشار آلاینده‌های هوا، ارتقای عدالت در دسترسی به حمل‌ونقل عمومی و افزایش استفاده از حمل‌ونقل اشتراکی و پاک بیشترین تأثیر را بر سایر شاخص‌ها دارند. در تحلیل تأثیرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم، شاخص‌های کاهش انتشار آلاینده‌ها و توسعه خدمات حمل‌ونقل دیجیتال نقش مهمی در بهبود کیفیت محیط‌زیست دارند. همچنین، در سناریوهای مختلف، تعامل مثبت شاخص‌ها در سناریوی خوش‌بینانه و ضعف مدیریت در سناریوی بدبینانه مشهود است؛ بنابراین، نتایج بر اهمیت آینده‌پژوهی در توسعه سیاست‌های حمل‌ونقل پایدار تأکید می‌کند و می‌تواند به سیاست‌گذاران در تدوین استراتژی‌های مؤثر برای ارتقاء حمل‌ونقل پایدار و زیست‌پذیری شهری تهران کمک کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Structural analysis of urban sustainable transportation policies for the future livability of Tehran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Navid Ahangari 1
  • Asma Yavari 2
1 Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Urbanization, Faculty of Engineering, Kish International Campus, Tehran South Branch, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Urban planning and transportation significantly influence the sustainability and livability of cities, shaping the quality of life for urban residents. This study aims to structurally analyze urban sustainable transportation policies to enhance the future livability of Tehran, employing a future studies approach. The research methodology is applied in purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature. Data collection relied on library research, documentation, surveys, and the Delphi method. The statistical population comprised experts in urban studies, with a purposive sample of 70 respondents selected using the snowball sampling method. For data analysis, the MICMAC (Matrix of Cross-Impact Multiplications Applied to a Classification) method was employed to assess, rank, and categorize indicators, while Scenario Wizard was utilized to develop final scenarios. The results revealed that indicators such as reducing air pollutant emissions, enhancing equity in access to public transportation, and increasing the use of shared and eco-friendly transportation modes exert the greatest influence on other indicators. Direct and indirect impact analysis highlighted the pivotal role of reducing emissions and developing digital transportation services in improving environmental quality. Additionally, scenario analysis indicated a positive interplay of indicators in the optimistic scenario, while poor management was evident in the pessimistic scenario. Thus, the findings underscore the critical role of foresight in shaping sustainable transportation policies and offer strategic insights for policymakers to improve sustainable transportation and urban livability in Tehran

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Structural Analysis
  • Sustainable Transportation
  • Transportation Policy and Planning
  • Urban Livability
  • MICMAC
  • Tehran

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جغرافیا و آینده پژوهی منطقه‌ای
دوره 3، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 9
بهار
خرداد 1404
صفحه 39-55

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