شناخت روند تغییرات کوتاه مدت و بلند مدت اقلیم آسایش گردشگری ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری آب و هوا شناسی، گروه جغرافیا ، واحد نجف آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف آباد، ایران.

2 گروه جغرافیا، واحد نجف آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف آباد، ایران

3 استادیار ،گروه جغرافیا ، واحد نجف آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف آباد، ایران

چکیده

رابطه تغییر اقلیم و پدیده‌های طبیعی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی برای مدت نسبتاً طولانی در ابعاد متفاوت مورد بحث و بررسی قرار گرفته است. در طول 15 سال گذشته، مطالعات متمرکزتری شروع به ظهور کرده‌اند و به ویژه اخیراً موضوع گردشگری به عنوان یک پدیده اجتماعی بین‌المللی در مطالعات تغییرات آب و هوایی مورد توجه بسیار قرار گرفته است. پژوهش حاضر بر اساس هدف در شمار پژوهش‌های کاربردی (از نوع توسعه‌‍ای- راهبردی) می‌باشد و از نظر روش شناسی یک پژوهش توصیفی- تحلیلی است. تعیین اقلیم آسایش گردشگری کشور در سال 2030  و 2050 نیاز به آینده‌پژوهی با توجه به داده‌های پیش‌بینی شده توسط مراکز علمی معتبر و بر اساس سناریوهای جهانی تغییر اقلیم است با توجه به پراکندگی داده‌ها ایستگاه‌ها به صورتی انتخاب شده است که کل کشور را پوشش دهد. سناریوی SSP1-2.6 و مدل CanESM5-CanOE (Canada) از گزارش ششم IPCC  (CMIP6) انتخاب و داده‌های دما، رطوبت نسبی و باد از سایت کوپرنیکس تهیه شده است  و برمبنای آن محاسبات توسط نرم افزار ریمن انجام و سپس توسط نرم‌افزار GIS نتایج بصورت نقشه ترسیم و سپس بر اساس مدل دمای معادل فیزیولوژیک(PET) و به صورت مکان محور پهنه‌بندی شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد در مجموع در افق ۳۵ ساله (2030-2015) اقلیم آسایش گردشگری ایران با پنج دسته تغییرات کلی روبرو است، تغییرات عرضی- محیطی، تغییرات سینوسی، تعییرات شدید منفی و تغییرات شدید مثبت و بدون تغییرات محسوس.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Understanding short-term and long-term trends in Iran's tourism comfort climate

نویسندگان [English]

  • Kamran Sheikhzadeh 1
  • Amir Gandomkar 2
  • Alireza Abbasi 3
1 Department of Geography, Na. C., Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.
2 Department of Geography, Na. C., Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.
3 Department of Geography, Na. C., Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The relationship between climate change and natural, social and economic phenomena has been discussed from different dimensions for a relatively long time. Over the past 15 years, more focused studies have begun to emerge. In particular, tourism as an international social phenomenon has recently received much attention in climate change studies. The present study is classified as applied research (developmental-strategic type) based on its purpose and is a descriptive-analytical research in terms of methodology. Determining the climate of tourism comfort in 2030 and 2050 requires future research, which uses data predicted by reputable scientific centers and is based on global climate change scenarios. Considering the dispersion of the data, the samples were selected to cover all climatic regions of Iran. The SSP1-2.6 scenario and the CanESM5-CanOE (Canada) model were selected from the Sixth IPCC Assessment Report (CMIP6), and temperature, relative humidity, and wind data were obtained from the Copernicus website. Calculations were performed using Riemann software and then the results were plotted as a map using GIS software. Then, they were determined based on the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) model and zoned based on location. The results show that in total, over a 35-year horizon (2015-2030), Iran's tourism comfort climate faces five general categories of changes: latitudinal-environmental changes, sinusoidal changes, severe negative changes, severe positive changes, and no noticeable changes.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate Change
  • Tourism Comfort Climate
  • Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) Model
  • Iran

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جغرافیا و آینده پژوهی منطقه‌ای
دوره 3، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 10
تابستان
شهریور 1404
صفحه 92-110

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