بررسی و تبیین استراتژی روسیه برای نظم‌سازی در قفقاز جنوبی با نگاهی آینده‌محور

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانش‌آموخته دکتری روابط بین‌الملل، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران.

چکیده

پس از فروپاشی اتحاد جماهیر شوروی در سال 1991، روسیه با هدف حفظ تمامیت ارضی خود و جلوگیری از فروپاشی دوباره با اتخاذ راهبردها و توسل به ابزارهای مختلف، در راستای ایجاد پایگاه‌های نظامی و گسترش نفوذ سیاسی در کشورهای قفقاز جنوبی گام برداشته است. همچنین روسیه با سرمایه­گذاری و حضور در معادلات انرژی و کریدورهای راهبردی در منطقه هم­اکنون به‌عنوان یک قدرت برتر و پرنفوذ در قفقاز جنوبی عمل می‌کند. در این میان، مقامات روس درصدد حفظ حوزه نفوذ خود در لایه‌های قدرت در قفقاز جنوبی برآمده‌اند که این امر ضمن حفظ سهم کرملین از ساختار قدرت در منطقه، کمک شایانی به توسعه جاه‌طلبی‌ها و کسب جایگاه هژمونی آن در صفحه شطرنج اوراسیایی خواهد نمود. پژوهش حاضر با رویکردی آینده‌پژوهانه در پی پاسخ به این سؤال اصلی است که روسیه برای نظم‌سازی در قفقاز جنوبی چه راهبردی را دنبال می‌کند؟ فرضیه قابل طرح این است که پس از فروپاشی شوروی و کاهش قدرت روسیه در قفقاز جنوبی، کرملین با هدف حفظ حاکمیت ارضی خود از طریق عملیات نظم سازی و ایجاد ترتیبات سیاسی، اقتصادی، فرهنگی و نظامی، نفوذ قابل‌توجهی در قفقاز جنوبی پیدا کرده که این امر روسیه را به قدرت برتر منطقه تبدیل کرده است. در این میان، مقامات مسکو سعی در حفظ نفوذ و قدرت هژمونی خود در قفقاز جنوبی دارند که این موضوع ضمن تأمین و تضمین منافع آن‌ها در منطقه، به روسیه امکان می‌دهد تا بر تصمیمات دولت‌های منطقه تأثیر بگذارد و از این طریق آینده نظم و معادلات قفقاز جنوبی را به نفع کرملین و به ضرر بازیگران رقیب حفظ نماید. این پژوهش، ماهیتی کیفی داشته و از نظر روش اجرا از نوع توصیفی-تبیینی است که با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی نگاشته شده است. روش گردآوری اطلاعات و داده‌های تحقیق نیز کتابخانه‌ای است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing and explaining Russia's strategy for establishing order in the South Caucasus with a future-oriented perspective

نویسنده [English]

  • Hamid Dorj
PhD student in International Relations, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran
چکیده [English]

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia, with the aim of preserving its territorial integrity and preventing another collapse by adopting strategies and resorting to various means, has taken steps to establish military bases and expand political influence in the countries of the South Caucasus. Also, Russia, by investing and being present in energy equations and strategic corridors in the region, is now acting as a superior and influential power in the South Caucasus. In the meantime, Russian officials have sought to maintain their sphere of influence in the layers of power in the South Caucasus, which, while preserving the Kremlin's share of the power structure in the region, will contribute significantly to the development of its ambitions and gaining a hegemonic position on the Eurasian chessboard. The present study, with a futures-oriented approach, seeks to answer the main question: What strategy is Russia pursuing for establishing order in the South Caucasus? The hypothesis that can be put forward is that after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the decline of Russian power in the South Caucasus, the Kremlin, with the aim of maintaining its territorial sovereignty through operations to establish order and create political, economic, cultural, and military arrangements, has gained significant influence in the South Caucasus, which has made Russia the dominant power in the region. In the meantime, Moscow authorities are trying to maintain their influence and hegemonic power in the South Caucasus, which, while securing and guaranteeing their interests in the region, allows Russia to influence the decisions of regional governments and thereby preserve the future order and equations of the South Caucasus in favor of the Kremlin and to the detriment of competing actors. This research is qualitative in nature, and in terms of its implementation method, it is of a descriptive-explanatory type that is written with a futures-oriented approach. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Russia
  • America
  • South Caucasus
  • Order-building
  • Territorial Expansion

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جغرافیا و آینده پژوهی منطقه‌ای
دوره 3، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 11
پاییز
آذر 1404
صفحه 41-61

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