خوانشی انتقادی بر معرفت‌شناسی آینده‌پژوهی رایج

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه آینده‌پژوهی، دانشکده و پژوهشکده حضرت ولی‌عصر (عج)، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین (ع)، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه آینده‌پژوهی، دانشکده و پژوهشکده حضرت ولی‌عصر (عج)، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین (ع)، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار وزارت علوم، تحقیقات و فناوری، تهران، ایران

چکیده

در حوزه آینده‌پژوهی مدرن، یکی از مهم‌ترین چالش‌ها، فقدان چارچوب‌های شفاف و موجه برای توجیه ادعاها درباره آینده است. بسیاری از رویکردهای کنونی، پیش‌فرض‌های روش‌شناختی و منابع معرفتی خود را به‌گونه‌ای تعیین می‌کنند که هنوز به‌طور کامل مبانی نظری و حدود شناختی تولید و تحلیل سناریوها را توضیح نداده‌اند. در این پارادایم‌ها هنوز مشخص نیست که چه معیارهایی برای اعتبارسنجی چشم‌اندازهای آینده وجود دارد و چگونه می‌توان ادعاهای مختلف را از حیث قوت معرفت‌شناختی سنجید. این پژوهش در پی آن است تا از طریق خوانشی انتقادی، ابعاد مختلف «مسئله معرفت‌شناختی» در آینده‌پژوهی مدرن را شناسایی کرده و با بررسی خلأها و تضادهای پارادایم‌های موجود، چارچوبی دقیق‌تر برای توجیه ادعاهای معرفتی در این حوزه ارائه نماید. پژوهش حاضر از نوع کیفی و با بهره‌گیری از رویکرد میان‌رشته‌ای، به بررسی و نقد مبانی معرفت‌شناختی آینده‌پژوهی می‌پردازد. برای گردآوری داده‌ها، از مطالعه اسنادی و کتابخانه‌ای بهره گرفته‌شده و در تحلیل داده‌ها، از تحلیل محتوای کیفی برای شناسایی مفاهیم کلیدی، الگوها و روابط میان آن‌ها در متون موردبررسی استفاده‌شده است. در نهایت بعد از بررسی پاسخ‌های چهار پارادایم اصلی یعنی اثبات‌گرایی، تفسیرگرایی، انتقادی و تلفیقی به مسائل هفت‌گانه معرفت‌شناسی (تعریف معرفت، امکان معرفت، منابع و راه‌های معرفت، گونه‌ها و اقسام معرفت، مفاهیم و تصورات، تصدیقات علم حصولی و انواع آن، صدق و معیار صدق)، انتقادات طرح‌شده به هرکدام از پارادایم‌ها به‌تفصیل بیان شد. در نهایت نیز بعد از جمع‌بندی مباحث، معرفت‌شناسی اسلامی به‌عنوان بدیل مطلوب این مهم پیشنهاد می‌گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

A critical reading of the epistemology of mainstream futures studies

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Karami 1
  • Omid Voghofi 2
  • Ebrahim Hajiani 3
1 PhD student, Department of Futures Studies, Imam Hossein University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Futures Studies, Imam Hossein University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Ministry of Science, Research and Technology, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

In the field of modern futures studies, one of the most significant challenges is the absence of transparent, well‐justified frameworks for substantiating claims about the future. Many current approaches define their methodological assumptions and epistemic resources in ways that do not fully clarify the theoretical foundations or cognitive limits of scenario generation and analysis. Within these paradigms, it remains unclear which criteria should be used to validate future visions and how to assess the epistemic strength of competing claims. This study, therefore, employs a critical reading to identify the multiple dimensions of the “epistemic problem” in modern futures studies and, by examining the gaps and contradictions in existing paradigms, proposes a more precise framework for justifying epistemic claims in this domain. The present research is qualitative and adopts an interdisciplinary approach to examine and critique the epistemic foundations of futures studies. Data were collected through documentary and library research, and qualitative content analysis was used to identify key concepts, patterns, and relationships within the texts under review. After analyzing how the four main paradigms—positivism, interpretivism, critical theory, and mixed methods—address the seven core epistemological issues (definition of knowledge; possibility of knowledge; sources and means of knowledge; types and categories of knowledge; concepts and representations; cognitive certainties and their varieties; and truth and criteria of truth), detailed criticisms of each paradigm are presented. Finally, having synthesized these discussions, Islamic epistemology is proposed as the most suitable alternative framework.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Futures studies
  • Epistemology
  • Critical reading
  • Foundations

مراجع

Ahlqvist Toni, M. R. (2015). Emerging pathways for critical futures research: Changing contexts and impacts of social theory. Futures magazine. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.07.012
Aligica (2003). Prediction, explanation and the epistemology of futures studies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 69(1), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(03)00067-3
Ayer, A. J. (1936). Language, Truth and Logic. Gollancz. https://openlibrary.org/works/OL1157990W/Language_truth_and_logic
Bell, W. (2003). An epistemology for futures studies: From positivism to critical realism. In W. Bell, Foundations of futures studies: Volume 1—History, purposes, and knowledge 191–238, Transaction Publishers. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203791684
Bhaskar, R. (2014). The Possibility of Naturalism: A Philosophical Critique of the Contemporary Human Sciences. https://www.routledge.com/The-Possibility-of-Naturalism-A-philosophical-critique-of-the-contemporary-human-sciences/Bhaskar/p/book/9781138798885
Boonmavichit, T., & Boossabong, P. (2022). Approaching foresight through critical realism: Lessons drawn from Thailand. Journal of Futures Studies, 26(4). https://jfsdigital.org/2022-2/vol-26-no-4-june-2022/
Brown, J. S., & Duguid, P. (1991). Organizational Learning and Communities-of-Practice: Toward a Unified View of Working, Learning, and Innovation. Organization Science, 2(1), 40–57. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2.1.40
Browne, M. N., & Keeley, S. M. (2011). Asking the Right Questions: A Guide to Critical Thinking (10th ed.). Pearson Education. https://www.worldcat.org/zh-cn/title/asking-the-right-questions-a-guide-to-critical-thinking/oclc/725828776
Bruner, J. (1991). The Narrative Construction of Reality. Critical Inquiry, 18(1), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1086/448619
Burr, V. (2015). Social Constructionism (3rd ed.). Routledge.
Carnap, R. (1934). Logische Syntax der Sprache. Vienna: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-25375-5
Cedric, Ch. (2019). The four theories of truth as a method for critical thinking. Retrieved from https://commoncog.com/four-theories-of-truth
Cenci, S., Medeiros, L. P., Sugihara, G., & Saavedra, S. (2029). Assessing the predictability of nonlinear dynamics under smooth parameter changes. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 17(162). https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2019.0627
Chaparak, A. (2023). In Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Retrieved from https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/epistemology-social/ ScienceDirect
Chaparak, A. (2023). Toward a new stage for the epistemology of futures studies: Exploring social epistemology. Futures, 153, 103237. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103237
Chermack, T. J. (2002). The mandate for theory in scenario planning. Futures Research Quarterly, 25–28.
Collins T. & Andy H. (2010). The Evolution of Integral Futures. Retrieved from https://www.andyhinesight.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/79-Evolution-of-integral-futures-WFR-JunJul2010.pdf
Cook-Greuter, S., Ken W., & Beena Sh. (2018). Integral Theory Making and the Need for Empirical Rigor. Integral Leadership Review. https://integralleadershipreview.com/15583-integral-theory-making-and-the-need-for-empirical-rigor-observations-from-the-field-of-adult-development
Crotty, M. (1998). The Foundations of Social Research: Meaning and Perspective in the Research Process. Sage Publications.
de Sousa Santos., B. (2014). Epistemologies of the South: Justice Against Epistemicide. Routledge.
Edwards, M. (2002). Epistemological Pluralism in Futures Studies: The CLA–Integral Debate. MetaFuture. Retrieved from https://www.metafuture.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/epistemological-pluralism-2010.pdf
Esmaeilzadeh, P., & Pashazadeh, S. (2024). Exploring the Need for Medical Futures Studies: Insights From a Scoping Review. Journal of Medical Internet Research, 26(1), e57148. https://doi.org/10.2196/57148
Fine, G. (2003). Plato on Knowledge and Forms: Selected Essays. Oxford University Press.
Foucault, M. (1972). The Archaeology of Knowledge. Pantheon Books. https://search.worldcat.org/it/title/The-archaeology-of-knowledge/oclc/511209
Funtowicz, S. O. & Ravetz, J. R. (1991). A New Scientific Methodology for Global Environmental Issues, in Costanza, R. (ed.), Ecological Economics: The Science and Management of Sustainability: 137–152. New York: Columbia University Press. https://cup.columbia.edu/book/ecological-economics/9780231075626/
Gadamer, H.-G. (1975). Truth and Method (2nd ed.). Continuum.
Geels, F. W. (2022). Causality and Explanation in Socio-Technical Transitions Research. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 45, 194–216. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733322000646
Goldman, A. I. (2010). Knowledge in a Social World. Oxford University Press.
Guba, E. G., & Lincoln, Y. S. (1981). Effective Evaluation. Jossey-Bass.
Habermas, J. (2023). The Theory of Communicative Action. Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/win2023/entries/habermas/
Hajiani, E. (2018). Foundations, Principles and Methods of Futures Studies, Second Edition, Tehran: Imam Sadegh University Press. [In Persian]
Heidegger, M. (1962). Being and Time (J. Macquarrie & E. Robinson, Trans.). Harper & Row. https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/372138
Hideg, I. (2001). The future’s presence in the present: Unleashing critical futures studies. Futures, 33(7), 569–578.
Hines, A., & Slaughter, R. (2007). Carrying fire: A way forward for integral foresight. Futures, 39(6), 635–644. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328721001026
Hosseinzadeh Yazdi, M. (2020), Epistemology, first edition, Qom: Islamic Wisdom Society Publications. [In Persian]
Hume, D. (1748). An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding (T. L. Beauchamp, Ed.). Oxford University Press. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/induction-problem
IGI Global. (n.d.). What is positivist epistemology. In IGI Global Dictionary. Retrieved May 3, 2025, from https://www.igi-global.com/dictionary/positivist-epistemology/23062
Inayatullah, S. (1998). Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader: Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology. Metafuture.
Inayatullah, S. (2013). The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader: Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology. https://www.metafuture.org/product/cla-reader-and-cla-2-0-pdfs/
Inayatullah, S. (2018). Foresight in challenging environments. Journal of Futures Studies, 22(4), 15–24. https://www.metafuture.org/library-page/articles-by-sohail-inayatullah-1
Inayatullah, S. (2024). Critical Futures Studies. Retrieved from https://garden.johanneskleske.com/critical-futures-studies
Inayatullah, S., & Milojević, I. (2015). Policy Analysis: Systems, Futures and Critical Approaches. Routledge.
Integral L. (2025). A threat to the credibility of Integral Theory? Integral Life Community Forum. https://community.integrallife.com/t/a-threat-to-the-credibility-of-integral-theory/52770
Jacobson Nora, R. G. and Emma H. (2007). Ethical Review of Interpretive Research: Problems and Solutions. Retrieved from https://faculty.washington.edu/stevehar/Interpretive.pdf
Javadi amoli, a. (2010), Islamic system of thought, Islamic Publications Office ,qom. [In Persian]
Kadiri, J. A., & Ighodaro, H. F. (2024). Distinguishing between positivist and non-positivist research methods in political science: A quest for a meeting point. Wilberforce Journal of the Social Sciences, 9(2), 58–81. https://doi.org/10.36108/wjss/4202.90.0230
Kallio, H., Pietilä, A.-M., Johnson, M., & Kangasniemi, M. (2022). Improving the visibility and description of theory in qualitative research. International Journal of Qualitative Methods, 21, 1–12. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667321521000305
Kleske, J. (2024). Critical Futures Studies: Opening the Space of Plausible Futures. Garden Press. https://garden.johanneskleske.com/critical-futures-studies
Krikke, J. (2023). Why Integral must become more worldcentric. Medium. Retrieved from https://jankrikke2020.medium.com/why-integral-must-become-more-worldcentric-e50c7a7d1a42
Kristóf, T, (2024). Development tendencies and turning points of futures studies. Eur J Futures Res 12, 9  https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-024-00231-7
Kuhn, T. S. (1962). The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (3rd ed.). University of Chicago Press. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Structure_of_Scientific_Revolutions
LibreTexts. (2023). Benefits and Challenges of Interpretive Research. In Social Science Research: Principles, Methods, and Practices. Retrieved 3, 2025, from https://socialsci.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/.../12.02%3A_Benefits_and_Challenges_of_Interpretive_Research
Lincoln, Y. S., & Guba, E. G. (1985). Naturalistic Inquiry. Sage Publications.
Lincoln, Y. S., Lynham, S. A., & Guba, E. G. (2018). Paradigmatic Controversies, Contradictions, and Emerging Confluences. https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/the-sage-handbook-of-qualitative-research/book242504
Lo Presti, A. (1996). Futures research and complexity: A critical analysis from the perspective of futures studies ,Futures, 28(2), 129–144. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016328796000547
Lumen salon. (2024). Chapter 12: Interpretive Research. In Research Methods for the Social Sciences. 3, 2025, from https://courses.lumenlearning.com/.../chapter-12-interpretive-research
Meyerhoff, J. (2009). Six Criticisms of Wilber's Integral Theory. Integral World. https://www.integralworld.net/meyerhoff4.html
Miller, R. (2024, September 6). Defining Futures Studies: Locating Anticipation [Conference paper]. Anticipation 2024, University of Trento.
Molla sadra,s (1631). The Four Books (in theoretical wisdom), qom. [In Persian]
Montuori Alf. (2012). Reflections on the Complexity of Integral Theorizing: Towards Agenda-Self-Reflection. Integral Leadership Review. https://integralleadershipreview.com/11360-41-reflections-complexity-integral-theorizing-towards-agenda-self-reflection
Mousavi, M. N., Shirazi, S. A., Nasar-u.-Minallah, M., & Bayramzadeh, N. (2025). Introducing the Mousavi Primate City Index for Iran’s Urban System assessment. GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY, 18(1), 44–53. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2025-3218
Mousavi, M., & Bayramzadeh, N. (2024). Spatial analysis of the trend of regional inequalities in Iran. Scientific- Research Quarterly of Geographical Data (SEPEHR), 33(131), 105-125. doi: 10.22131/sepehr.2024.2017054.3039 [In Persian]
Mousavi, M., Jafarpour Ghalehteimouri, K., Bagheri Kashkouli, A., & Bayramzadeh, N. (2024). Mitigating development barriers and addressing disparities in border cities of Iran: a comprehensive analysis of border provinces and influential factors. Geojournal, 89(4), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-024-11181-9
Neurath, O., Hahn, H., & Carnap, R. (1929). The Scientific Conception of the World: The Vienna Circle. https://sites.pitt.edu/~jdnorton/teaching/Phil_Sci_Core/Phil_Sci_Core_2022/docs/Vienna_Circle_manifesto_JDN.pdf
Nowell, L. S., Norris, J. M., White, D. E., & Moules, N. J. (2017). Thematic Analysis: Striving to Meet the Trustworthiness Criteria. International Journal of Qualitative Methods, 16, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1177/1609406917733847
Pervin, N., & Mokhtar, M. (2022). The interpretivist research paradigm: A subjective notion of a social context. International Journal of Academic Research in Progressive Education and Development, 11(2), 419–428. https://doi.org/10.6007/IJARPED/v11-i2/12938
Plato. (1997). Theaetetus. In The Collected Dialogues of Plato. 1553–1634. Princeton University Press.
Polanyi, M. (1966). The Tacit Dimension. Routledge & Kegan Paul. https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/60901005
Popper, K. (1934). The Logic of Scientific Discovery. Routledge. https://plato.stanford.edu/archIves/fall2011/entries/induction-problem
Popper, K. (1957). The Poverty of Historicism. Routledge.
Pretorius, L. (2023). Demystifying research paradigms. Retrieved from https://www.lynettepretorius.com/the_scholars_way_blog/demystifying-research-paradigms
Research-Methodology.net. (n.d.). Positivism. Retrieved from https://research-methodology.net/research-philosophy/positivism/
Ricoeur, P. (1981). Hermeneutics and the Human Sciences: Essays on Language, Action and Interpretation. Cambridge University Press.
Riessman, C. K. (2008). Narrative Methods for the Human Sciences. Sage Publications. https://uk.sagepub.com/en-gb/eur/narrative-methods-for-the-human-sciences/book226139
Russell, B., & Moore, G. E. (2002). Correspondence theory of truth. In Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Retrieved from https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/truth-correspondence/ Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Saunders, M., Lewis, P., & Thornhill, A. (2016). Research Methods for Business Students (7th ed.). Pearson. https://search.worldcat.org/title/Research-methods-for-business-students/oclc/921579669
Schlick, M. (2011). Analysis of Sensations and the Relation of the Physical to the Psychical. Open Court. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/schlick
Schoonenboom, J., & Johnson, R. B. (2017). How to construct a mixed methods research design. KZfSS Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie, 69(2), 107–131. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1049732318788379
Schwandt, T. A. (2007). Interpretivism. In The Sage Dictionary of Qualitative Inquiry,134–135. Sage Publications. https://methods.sagepub.com/dict/edvol/the-sage-dictionary-of-qualitative-inquiry/chpt/interpretivism
Schwandt, T. A. (2007). The Sage Dictionary of Qualitative Inquiry (3rd ed.). Sage Publications. https://methods.sagepub.com/dict/edvol/the-sage-dictionary-of-qualitative-inquiry/toc
Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. Doubleday. https://search.worldcat.org/it/title/The-art-of-the-long-view/oclc/22623235
Shenton, A. K. (2004). Strategies for ensuring trustworthiness in qualitative research projects. Education for Information, 22(2), 63–75. https://doi.org/10.3233/EFI-2004-22201
Slaughter, R. (2011). The Evolution of Integral Futures: A Status Update. Foresight International. Retrieved from https://foresightinternational.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Collins_Hines_Evo_of_Integral_Futs_2011.pdf
Slaughter, R., & Inayatullah, S. (2004). Futures Studies: Theories and Methods. Tamkang University Press. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016328711000929
Smith, A., & Stirling, A. (2022). Introduction to Critical Realism and Its Critique of Positivism. Journal of Critical Social Sciences, 10(2), 45–67. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02691728.2022.2080127
Sohravadi, sh (1191), hikmatol eshragh, qom. [In Persian]
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. (2012). Scientific Objectivity. Retrieved from https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/scientific-objectivity/ Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Tabatabaee, m. (1982), Al-Dhari'ah to the works of the Twelver Shiites, Tehran: Publication of Jamaat al-Madrasin [In Persian]
Taghavi, M. & Mohaghegh, M. (2021). Fundamentals of Futures Studies, Wendell Bell, Tehran: Defense Industries Research Educational Institute. [In Persian]
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. https://search.worldcat.org/title/black-swan-the-impact-of-the-highly-improbable/oclc/71833470
Virmajoki, V. (2022). Limits of conceivability in the study of the future: Lessons from epistemology Futures, 141, 102867. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328722000933
Voros, J. (2020). A primer on futures studies, foresight and the use of scenarios. Retrieved from https://thevoroscope.com/publications/foresight-primer
White joe. (2025). What Is Critical Epistemology and Why Is It Needed? Retrieved from https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/what-is-critical-epistemology-and-why-is-it-needed/
Wilber, K. (2000). A theory of everything: An integral vision for business, politics, science and spirituality. Shambhala. https://www.shambhala.com/a-theory-of-everything-1522.html
Wilber, K. (2005). Introduction to Integral Theory and Practice: IOS Basic and the AQAL Map. AQAL Journal of Integral Theory and Practice, 1(1), 1–38. https://www.redfrogcoaching.com/uploads/3/4/2/1/34211350/ken_wilber_introduction_to_integral.pdf
Wilber, K. (2007). The Integral Vision: A Very Short Introduction to the Revolutionary Integral Approach to Life, God, the Universe, and Everything. Shambhala Publications. https://www.shambhala.com/the-integral-vision-15152.html
World Futures Studies Federation. (2025). About futures studies. Retrieved from https://wfsf.org/about-futures-studies
Yeganeh, H., Su, Z., & Chrysostome, E. V. M. (2004). A critical review of epistemological and methodological issues in cross-cultural research. Journal of Comparative International Management, 17(1), 67–85. https://www.erudit.org/en/journals/jcim/2004-v7-n2-jcim_7_2/jcim7_2art05.pdf
جغرافیا و آینده پژوهی منطقه‌ای
دوره 4، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 13
بهار
خرداد 1405
صفحه 39-60

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار