تحلیل آینده‌پژوهی مؤلفه‌های کلیدی توسعه پایدار شهر کرکوک

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه مراغه، مراغه، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه مراغه، مراغه، ایران

3 دانشیار جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه مراغه، مراغه، ایران.

چکیده

در پایان قرن بیستم، برنامه‌ریزی شهری به دلیل غلبه رویکردهایی مانند مدرنیسم که عمدتاً بر رشد فناورانه تأکید داشتند، با چالش‌های مهمی مواجه شد. این رویکردها به دلیل بی‌توجهی به ابعاد اجتماعی و زیست‌محیطی، نتوانستند پاسخگوی نیازهای روزافزون شهرها باشند. بلکه باعث بروز ناپایداری‌هایی در ساختارهای زیستی، اقتصادی و کالبدی شهرها شدند. در چنین شرایطی، توسعه پایدار شهری به‌عنوان یکی از رویکردهای راهبردی در حوزه سیاست‌گذاری و برنامه‌ریزی شهری موردتوجه قرارگرفته است. بر این اساس، پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناسایی و تحلیل پیشران‌های کلیدی مؤثر بر توسعه پایدار در شهر کرکوک انجام‌شده است. نوع تحقیق توصیفی-تحلیلی و هدف آن کاربردی است. روش گردآوری داده­ها پیمایشی و نمونه آماری به تعداد 20 نفر از نخبگان شهری بوده است. مؤلفه‌­های موردبررسی در این تحقیق 4 مؤلفه (اقتصادی، اجتماعی- فرهنگی، زیست‌محیطی، نهادی­-کالبدی) در قالب 28 معیار موردبررسی قرار گرفتند به‌منظور سنجش و تحلیل اطلاعات از نرم‌افزارهای آینده‌پژوهی میک‌­مک و سناریو ویزارد استفاده‌شده است. بر اساس تحلیل­‌های انجام‌گرفته از میان 28 معیار 9 پیشران کلیدی: مدیریت کارآمد محلی، درآمد و اشتغال، قوانین و مقررات توسعه پایدار شهری، رقابت‌پذیری شهری، آگاهی و اعتماد شهروندان، اثربخشی طرح‌­های توسعه دولت، بازآفرینی بافت­‌های فرسوده شهری، توسعه گردشگری، سرمایه‌گذاری (اعم از دولتی، خارجی و بخش خصوصی) بیشترین تأثیرگذاری مستقیم و کمترین وابستگی را داشته­‌اند. برای این 9 پیشران اقدام به سناریو نگاری شد و تعداد 27 سناریو برای پیشران‌ها نوشته و در نرم‌افزار سناریو ویزارد مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت و تعداد 2 سناریوی قوی، 7 سناریوی باورکردنی استخراج گردید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

A futures studies analysis of key sustainable development components in Kirkuk City

نویسندگان [English]

  • Vael Taha Ghaeb 1
  • Omid Mobaraki 2
  • Ali Valigholizadeh 3
1 Master's Degree in Geography and Urban Planning, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Humanities, University of Maragheh, Maragheh, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Humanities, University of Maragheh, Maragheh, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Political Geography, Faculty of Humanities, University of Maragheh, Maragheh, Iran
چکیده [English]

At the end of the 20th century, urban planning faced significant challenges due to the dominance of approaches such as modernism, which mainly emphasized technological growth. These approaches failed to meet the growing needs of cities due to their disregard for social and environmental dimensions. Rather, they caused instability in the biological, economic, and physical structures of cities. In such circumstances, sustainable urban development has been considered as one of the strategic approaches in the field of urban policymaking and planning. Accordingly, the present study was conducted with the aim of identifying and analyzing the key drivers affecting sustainable development in the city of Kirkuk. The type of research is descriptive-analytical, and its purpose is applied. The data collection method was a survey, and the statistical sample was 20 people from the urban elite. The components studied in this study were examined in 4 dimensions (economic, socio-cultural, environmental, and institutional-physical) in the form of 28 criteria. For analyzing the information, the future research software MICMAC and Scenario Wizard were used. Based on the analyses conducted, among the 28 criteria, 9 key drivers: efficient local management, income and employment, sustainable urban development laws and regulations, urban competitiveness, citizen awareness and trust, effectiveness of government development plans, regeneration of dilapidated urban textures, tourism development, investment (both government, foreign and private sector) had the most direct impact and the least dependence. Scenario writing was carried out for these 9 drivers, and 27 scenarios were written for the drivers and analyzed in the Scenario Wizard software, and 2 strong scenarios and 7 plausible scenarios were extracted.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Planning
  • Sustainable urban development
  • Future studies
  • Kirkuk city
Anbarlu, A., & Simchi, M.(2014). Foresight and the Future of Research in Iran, First International Conference on the Role of Islamic Revolution Management in the Power Geometry of the Global System (Management, Politics, Economics, Culture, Security, Accounting), Tehran. [In Persian].
Bayramzadeh, N., Mousavi, M. N. (2024). Investigating the Relationship Between Development and Resource Allocation in the Creation of New Human Settlements During the Years 2011 to 2021 (Case Study: Iran). Journal of Geography and Environmental Studies, 13(49), 120-139. https://sanad.iau.ir/Journal/ges/Article/1107624 [In Persian] 
BazazZadeh, M., Dadashpoor, H., & Motavaf, S. (2013). Analysis the Key Factors Impacting on Regional Development using Regional Foresight approach, The Case Study of West Azerbaijan Province, Iran. Spatial Planning4(2), 79-104. https://doi.org/20.1001.1.22287485.1393.4.2.5.1 [In Persian].
Bouwmeester, J. & Hartmann, T .(2021). Unraveling the self-made city: The spatial impact of informal real state markets in informal settlement, Cities, 108 (102966), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102966
Daghestani, I. S. (2009). Managing sustainable development in the urban environment of the city of Baghdad (Doctoral thesis, Higher Institute of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Baghdad).
 Deng, S., Mokhtar, Y-S. (2015). Identification of Key Forces Influencing Sustainable Development in Taiwan. Journal of Sustainable Development, 8(2), 161-173.
Ghanbari, Y. , rahimi, R. ,  & barghi, H. (2018). The Effect of Environmental-Behavioral Factors on Creative Tourism Achievement in Tourism Target Villages of Isfahan Province. Journal of Tourism Planning and Development9(32), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.22080/jtpd.2020.17581.3163 [In Persian].
Gharakhlu, M., & Hosseini, H. (2014). Sustainable urban development indicators, Geography and regional development, 2(3). 42-58. [In Persian].
Hoseinpour, M., Mousavi, M., & Ghalehteimouri, K. J. (2024). Enhancing urban and regional development for border security in Iran: A futures study of West Azerbaijan province. Town Reg. Plan., 84, 15–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.38140/trp.v84i.7823
Komasi H., Zolfani SH., & Nemati A .(2023). Evaluation of the social-cultural competitiveness of cities based on sustainable development approach. Decision Making: Applications in Management and Engineering. 6(1), 583-602. https://doi.org/10.31181/dmame06012023k
Lee, Z., Huang, L. Y. (2007). Related Research in Learning Motivation, Learning Satisfaction and Learning Performance of Continuing Education for In-service Personage: Taking In-service  Master Program of NCKU as Example, Journal of Human Resource Management, 7(4), 1-24.
Mobaraki, O., valigholizadeh, A., & bapiri, Y. (2023). Evaluation of the dimensions and components of the ecological city in Mahabad, Environmental Studies Quarterly, Islamic Azad University of Malayer  Number 64, 17th, pp89-110. [In Persian]  
Mohamadpourjaberi, M., Ebrahimzadeh, I., Rafieian, M., & Saed Moocheshy, R. (2016). Identification and Analysis of Cross-Impacts of Key Factors and Assessing the Level of Regional Sustainability with a Strategic Foresight Approach (A Case Study of Northern Khorasan Province). Geography and Environmental Sustainability6(3), 1-17. [In Persian].
Morrow, E.(201). A model and measure for quality service user involvement in health research, International journal of consumer studies, 34(5), 532-539.  https://doi.org/10 .1111/j.1470-6431.2010.00901.x.
Mousavi, M., & Bayramzadeh, N. (2024). Spatial analysis of the trend of regional inequalities in Iran. Scientific- Research Quarterly of Geographical Data (SEPEHR), 33(131), 105-125. doi: 10.22131/sepehr.2024.2017054.3039 [In Persian]
Mousavi, M., & Kahaki, F. S. (2016). Priority Assessment of Iranian Islamic Development Indicators in the Realization of Spatial Planning of Khorasan Razavi Province with the Justice Based Approach. Geography and Development, 14(45), 93–120. https://doi.org/10.22111/gdij.2016.2924 [In Persian]
Mousavi, M., Jahangirzadeh, J., Bayramzadeh, N., & Omidvarfar, S. (2023). An analysis of the state of good governance in Urban Peripheral villages of Urmia. Preipheral Urban Spaces Development, 5(2), 221-236. https://doi.org/10.22034/jpusd.2023.397271.1270 [In Persian].
Mousavi, M., Zoghi Barani, K., Jahangirzadeh, J., Omidvarfar, S., & Bayramzadeh, N. (2023). Hospital Site Selection Using the Fuzzy Method and Passive Defense Approach (Case Study: Urmia City). Passive Defense, 14(1), 129-138. https://pd.ihu.ac.ir/article_207886.html  [In Persian] 
Ono, H., Kidokoro, T .(2020). Understanding the development pattern of informal settlement in Nairobi, Japan Architictural reviewe, 3(3). 384-393.
 Raeesghanavati K., Shamsoddini A., & Heidari A. A. (2022).Explaining the Key drivers Affecting the Sustainable Development of Mahshahr port city Based on Futures Research Approach, 26 (1) ,173-199. https://doi.org/20.1001.1.16059689.1401.26.1.7.9 [In Persian].
Rahnama, M. R., & sepehri, N. (2019). Evaluation of Ecological City Index in Chenaran City for Sustainable Development using Emergy. Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 8(1), 219-236. https://doi.org/10.22067/geo.v0i0.69187 [In Persian].
Rasoli, M., Saidpour, S., Ghalehteimouri, K. J., Mousavi, M., & Khedmatzadeh, A. (2023). Identification of Optimal Routes in Urban Physical Vulnerable Textures for Emergency Evacuation in Saqez City. AMJ, 7(1), 205–226. Retrieved from https://so02.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/jam/article/view/259413
Safaiepour, M., & Jafari, Y. (2022). Identification of proponents of Ahvaz metropolis development with a strategic foresight approach. Regional Planning12(46), 227-244. https://doi.org/ 10.30495/jzpm.2022.5363 [In Persian].
Safar Alizadeh, I., Bahrami Jaff, S., & Khanzadeh, M. (2023). Future research of the key drivers affecting the urban development of border areas based on the approach of urban and regional governance (Case study: Javanrood). Geography and Regional Future Studies1(2), 51-60. https://doi.org/10.30466/grfs.2023.54803.1002 [In Persian].
Sasanpour, F., Azadbakht, A. (2015). Application of the Futures Method in Good Urban Governance, Sixth National Conference on Urban Planning and Management, Mashhad, . [In Persian].
Sharma, A., Tiwari, G., Rao, K.(2020). Identifying mixed use indicators for including informal settlements as a distinct land use: case study of Dehli, Transportation research procedia, 48, 1918-1930.
United Nations. (2018). World urbanization prospects  Highlights. New York: Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Population Division.
Vaezzadeh, S., & Eyaseh, A. (2020). The state of social development in Iran's development programs with an emphasis on the social indicators of sustainable urban development. Urban Sociology, 10(36), 1-22.
Yang, J.T. (2010). Antecedents and Consequences of Knowledge Sharing in International Tourist Hotels. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 29, 42-52.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2009.05.004
Zali, N., Axdari, M. (2015). Identification and structural analysis of the development drivers of Guilan Province using the method of interaction analysis. First Conference on Geography, Civil Engineering, Urban Planning, Architecture, Urban Management and Sustainable Development, Qom. [In Persian].
Zhang, X. (2022). Theory of sustainable development: Concept evolution, dimension, and prospect. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version), 33(1), 10-19.