آینده‌ پژوهی توسعه گردشگری استان یزد با تأکید بر پیشران‌های توسعه‌ای

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استاد، گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه پیام نور تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

هدف اصلی این پژوهش، آینده‌ پژوهی توسعه گردشگری استان یزد با تأکید بر پیشران‌های توسعه‌ای است که با تمرکز بر شناسایی و تحلیل روندهای آتی، تلاش می‌کند چارچوبی جامع برای تصمیم‌گیری‌های راهبردی و سیاست‌گذاری‌های موثر در حوزه گردشگری این استان فراهم آورد. این مطالعه با هدف کاربردی طراحی شده و از رویکرد توصیفی-تحلیلی و اکتشافی بهره می‌برد. گردآوری داده‌های پژوهش به دو طریق کتابخانه‌ای و میدانی صورت گرفته است، به‌طوری‌که در بخش داده‌های کتابخانه‌ای از منابع علمی معتبر نظیر کتاب و مقالات علمی، در بخش داده‌های آمار از سالنامه‌های آماری مصوب و اسناد فرادست و در بخش میدانی نیز از پرسشنامه محقق ساخته استفاده شده است. محدوده موردمطالعه در این پژوهش استان یزد می‌باشد. جامعه آماری پژوهش 20 نفر از نخبگان و اساتید حوزه آمایش سرزمین و برنامه‌ریزی منطقه‌ای می‌باشد که به صورت  هدفمند انتخاب شده‌اند. تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌های پژوهش به صورت کمی و با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی و با استفاده از نرم‌افزارهای MICMAC و Scenario Wizard صورت گرفته است. بر اساس نظریه‌ها و یافته‌های پژوهش حاضر، گردشگری به عنوان یکی از ارکان کلیدی توسعه پایدار و محرکی مؤثر برای رشد اقتصادی و فرهنگی مناطق شناخته شده است. نتایج تحلیل‌های آماری نشان می‌دهد که استان یزد، با بهره‌مندی از ظرفیت‌های غنی تاریخی، فرهنگی و طبیعی، علی‌رغم چالش‌هایی مانند بحران کرونا، روند رو به رشد قابل توجهی را در جذب گردشگران تجربه کرده است. توسعه مستمر زیرساخت‌های گردشگری و شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی همچون زیرساخت‌ها، برند گردشگری، فرهنگ گردشگرپذیری و فناوری اطلاعات، نقش بسزایی در هدایت مسیر توسعه پایدار این صنعت در استان ایفا می‌کنند. سناریوهای پیش‌بینی شده نیز بر اهمیت اتخاذ راهبردهای واقع‌بینانه و پایدار توسط سیاست‌گذاران تأکید دارند تا بتوانند توسعه متوازن و مستمری را تضمین کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Future studies on tourism development in Yazd province, with emphasis on development drivers

نویسنده [English]

  • Hassan Hekmatnia
Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The main objective of this study is to conduct a futures study on the development of tourism in Yazd province with an emphasis on developmental drivers. By focusing on identifying and analyzing future trends, the research aims to provide a comprehensive framework for strategic decision-making and effective policy-making in the tourism sector of this province. This study is designed with an applied purpose and employs a descriptive-analytical and exploratory approach. Data collection was carried out through both library research and fieldwork. In the library section, reputable scientific sources such as books and scholarly articles were used; for statistical data, approved statistical yearbooks and higher-level documents were consulted; and in the fieldwork section, a researcher-designed questionnaire was employed. The scope of the study is limited to Yazd province. The research population consists of 20 experts and professors in the fields of spatial planning and regional planning, who were purposefully selected. Data analysis was performed quantitatively with a futures studies approach, utilizing MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software. Based on the theories and findings of the present study, tourism is recognized as one of the key pillars of sustainable development and an effective driver for the economic and cultural growth of regions. Statistical analyses show that Yazd province, benefiting from rich historical, cultural, and natural capacities, has experienced a significant growth trend in attracting tourists despite challenges such as the COVID-19 crisis. The continuous development of tourism infrastructure and the identification of key drivers such as infrastructure, tourism branding, tourist-friendly culture, and information technology play a crucial role in guiding the sustainable development path of this industry in the province. The predicted scenarios also emphasize the importance of adopting realistic and sustainable strategies by policymakers to ensure balanced and continuous development.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Future Studies
  • Tourism Development
  • Development Drivers
  • Yazd province

مراجع

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جغرافیا و آینده پژوهی منطقه‌ای
دوره 4، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 13
بهار
خرداد 1405
صفحه 155-170

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