آینده‌پژوهی ژئوپلیتیک قفقاز جنوبی: سناریوها و پیامدهای احداث دالان زنگه‌زور بر امنیت و توسعه جمهوری اسلامی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین (ع)، تهران، ایران

چکیده

منطقه قفقاز جنوبی در دهه‌های اخیر به یکی از کانون‌های حساس ژئوپلیتیکی و ژئواکونومیکی جهان تبدیل‌شده است. احداث «دالان زنگه‌زور» به‌عنوان یک کریدور استراتژیک که جمهوری آذربایجان را از طریق ارمنستان به نخجوان و ترکیه متصل می‌کند، می‌تواند نقشه جغرافیای سیاسی منطقه را دستخوش تغییرات بنیادین نماید. جمهوری اسلامی ایران به‌عنوان یکی از بازیگران اصلی منطقه، با مرز مشترک در شمال غرب کشور و پیوندهای تاریخی، اقتصادی و امنیتی با کشورهای قفقاز جنوبی، در معرض فرصت‌ها و تهدیدهای متنوع ناشی از فعال‌سازی این دالان قرار دارد. این پژوهش با هدف آینده‌پژوهی ژئوپلیتیک قفقاز جنوبی و بررسی سناریوهای محتمل اثرگذاری دالان زنگه‌زور بر امنیت و توسعه ایران انجام شده است. روش تحقیق به‌صورت ترکیبی (کیفی–کمی) طراحی گردیده است. در بخش کیفی، تحلیل اسنادی و مرور نظام‌مند منابع علمی و گزارش‌های سیاستی (۲۰۱۹–۲۰۲۵) انجام شده و در بخش کمی، از تکنیک «سناریونویسی مبتنی بر ماتریس بحران - عدم قطعیت» برای شناسایی متغیرهای کلیدی و ترسیم آینده‌های محتمل تا افق ۲۰۳۵ استفاده گردیده است. داده‌ها از منابع معتبر داخلی و خارجی، شامل مقالات علمی، گزارش‌های مراکز پژوهشی بین‌المللی و آمار رسمی سازمان‌های منطقه‌ای گردآوری‌شده‌اند. یافته‌های اولیه نشان می‌دهد که فعال شدن دالان زنگه‌زور می‌تواند دسترسی ایران به کریدورهای فرامنطقه‌ای را کاهش داده و جایگاه ژئوپلیتیکی کشور را در برخی سناریوها تضعیف کند؛ درعین‌حال، با اتخاذ راهبردهای دیپلماسی فعال و انعطاف‌پذیری ژئوپلیتیکی، این دالان می‌تواند به فرصتی برای توسعه تجارت منطقه‌ای و تقویت همکاری‌های اقتصادی بدل شود. مقاله در پایان، مجموعه‌ای از راهکارهای سیاستی برای کاهش تهدیدات و افزایش بهره‌وری از فرصت‌های ناشی از تحولات قفقاز جنوبی ارائه می‌دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Futures Studies of the Geopolitics of the South Caucasus: Scenarios and Implications of the Zangezur Corridor Project on the Security and Development of the Islamic Republic of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahmood Nourani 1
  • Kazem Zoghi Barani 2
1 PhD in Political Geography, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Political Geography, Imam Hossein University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The South Caucasus region has emerged as one of the world's most sensitive geopolitical and geoeconomic focal points in recent decades. The establishment of the "Zangezur Corridor" as a strategic route connecting Azerbaijan through Armenia to Nakhchivan and Turkey could fundamentally transform the region's political geography. The Islamic Republic of Iran, as a significant regional player with common northwestern borders and historical, economic, and security ties to South Caucasus countries, faces both opportunities and threats from this corridor's activation. This study examines the geopolitical futures of the South Caucasus and analyzes potential scenarios of the Zangezur Corridor's impact on Iran's security and development. Employing a mixed-methods approach (qualitative-quantitative), the research includes documentary analysis and systematic review of academic sources and policy reports (2019-2025) for the qualitative component. The quantitative component utilizes "Scenario Writing Based on Crisis-Uncertainty Matrix" technique to identify key variables and project probable futures through 2035. Data was collected from reputable domestic and international sources, including scholarly articles, reports from international research centers, and statistics from regional organizations. Preliminary findings suggest that the Zangezur Corridor's activation may reduce Iran's access to trans-regional routes and weaken its geopolitical position in certain scenarios. However, through proactive diplomacy and geopolitical flexibility, the corridor could become an opportunity for regional trade development and enhanced economic cooperation. The study concludes by proposing policy recommendations to mitigate threats and maximize opportunities arising from South Caucasus developments.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Zangezur Corridor
  • Futures Studies
  • Geopolitics
  • National Security
  • South Caucasus

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جغرافیا و آینده پژوهی منطقه‌ای
دوره 4، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 13
بهار
خرداد 1405
صفحه 134-154

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