تحلیل بنیادهای امنیتی مسئله بحران آب در حوضه آبریز گاوخونی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه آموزشی جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه آموزشی جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

رشد جمعیت، توسعه کشاورزی و شهرنشینی شتابان همراه با تغییرات اقلیمی و افزایش تقاضا برای منابع آب، امنیت و دسترسی عادلانه به منابع آبی را با چالش جدی مواجه کرده است. در دهه‌های اخیر حوضه آبریز فلات مرکزی و به‌ویژه حوضه آبریز گاوخونی دچار بحران کم‌ آبی شده‌اند. این بحران، فعالیت‌های اقتصادی و پایداری زیست‌بوم‌ها را مختل و تنش‌هایی بین ذینفعان ایجاد کرده است که به امنیتی شدن موضوع آب در این حوضه منجر شده است. این پژوهش به روش توصیفی-تحلیلی و با رویکرد سیستمی، به بررسی امنیتی شدن بحران آب در حوضه آبریز گاوخونی می‌پردازد. داده‌های موردنیاز پژوهش از طریق مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای و روش‌های میدانی شامل مصاحبه و پرسشنامه جمع‌آوری‌شده و با استفاده از نرم‌افزارهای MicMac، Scenario Wizar و Vensim تحلیل‌شده‌اند. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد عوامل کلیدی مؤثر در امنیتی شدن بحران آب در این حوضه؛ عدالت در تخصیص منابع آب، نفوذ مدیران استان اصفهان در سطح ملی، رقابت‌های استانی، نقش سرویس‌های امنیتی خارجی، طرح‌های متعدد انتقال آب از سرچشمه کوهرنگ، نرخ بهره‌وری محصولات کشاورزی و تأثیر رسانه‌های ملی بر تحلیل مسائل آب منطقه، هستند. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد؛ وضعیت امنیتی شدن بحران آب در حوضه گاوخونی با 30.43 درصد در آستانه بحران قرار دارد. سناریو، «تلاقی منافع رقابتی و کمبود آب» محتمل‌ترین سناریو آینده این حوضه شناسایی‌شده است. این مطالعه به­دلیل ترکیب روش‌های کمی و کیفی و تمرکز بر وضعیت آینده حوضه، دیدگاه نوینی برای سیاست‌گذاران و برنامه‌ریزان جهت مدیریت پایدار منابع آب ارائه می‌دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the security foundations of the water crisis issue in the Gavkhoni Watershed

نویسندگان [English]

  • Esmail Dehghan 1
  • Zakeyeh Aftabi 1
  • Morad Kaviani Rad 2
  • Hossein Rabiee 2
1 Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Population growth, agricultural development, and rapid urbanization, accompanied by climate change and increased demand for water resources, have seriously challenged the security and equitable access to water resources. In recent decades, the Central Plateau basin and especially the Gavkhoni watershed have experienced a water scarcity crisis. This crisis has disrupted economic activities and ecosystem sustainability while generating tensions among stakeholders, leading to the securitization of water issues in this basin. This study, employing a descriptive-analytical approach and a systemic perspective, examines the securitization of the water crisis in the Gavkhoni watershed. Required data were collected through library research and field methods, including interviews and questionnaires, then analyzed using the MICMAC, Scenario Wizard, and Vensim software. Findings indicate that key factors influencing the securitization of the water crisis in this basin include: equity in water allocation, the influence of Isfahan province officials at the national level, inter-provincial competition, the role of foreign security services, multiple water transfer projects from the Kohrang source, agricultural productivity rates, and the impact of national media on the analysis of regional water issues. The results show that the securitization status of the water crisis in the Gavkhoni watershed, at 30.43%, is on the verge of a critical situation. The most likely scenario identified is the "convergence of competitive interests and water scarcity," highlighting the need for special attention in management and policymaking. This study, due to the combination of quantitative and qualitative methods and its focus on the future status of the watershed, provides a novel perspective for policymakers and planners for the sustainable management of water resources.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Securitization
  • Water Crisis
  • Gavkhoni Watershed

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جغرافیا و آینده پژوهی منطقه‌ای
دوره 4، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 14
تابستان
شهریور 1405
صفحه 1-21

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