خوانشی بر پیامدهای بیابان‌‏زایی در سکونتگاه‏‌های شهری با رهیافت آینده‌نگاری (مورد پژوهی: شهرهای حوضه آبریز دریاچه ارومیه در استان آذربایجان غربی)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه شهرسازی، واحد تهران غرب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

2 گروه شهرسازی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

3 گروه شهرسازی، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

امروزه بیابان‌زایی به‌عنوان یکی از مهم‌ترین چالش‌های اجتماعی- اقتصادی و محیط­‌زیستی پیشروی بشر، سکونتگاه‌های شهری را با پیامدهای قابل‌توجهی روبرو نموده است. این پدیده در کشور ایران هم رو به گسترش بوده و دریاچه ارومیه نیز مجزا از این مسئله نیست. دراین‌بین، آینده‌نگاری به‌عنوان یک ابزار استراتژیک برای پیش‌بینی و تحلیل روندها و پیامدهای احتمالی در زمینه‌های مختلف اجتماعی، اقتصادی و محیطی، می‌تواند ابزار قدرتمندی برای درک و مدیریت پیامدهای این بحران در سکونتگاه‌­های شهری باشد و به ایجاد سیاست‌ها و برنامه‌های مؤثر برای مقابله با آن کمک نماید. به همین منظور، پژوهش حاضر در راستای تبیین پیامدهای بیابان‌­زایی دریاچه ارومیه بر شهرهای حوضه آبریز آن در استان آذربایجان غربی با رویکرد آینده‌­­نگاری انجام‌شده است. در این پژوهش با ماهیت توصیفی- تحلیلی، ابتدا با استفاده از روش نمونه­‌گیری گلوله‌­برفی و پرسشگری از 34 نفر از متخصصان، کارشناسان و نخبگان مرتبط با محتوای پژوهش، پیامدهای روند خشک شدن این دریاچه بر شهرهای موردپژوهش شناسایی‌شده و در ادامه در چارچوب ماتریس اثرات متقابل و در محیط­ نرم‌­افزار میک­ مک، تأثیرگذاری و تأثیرپذیری مستقیم و غیرمستقیم هرکدام از این پیامدها سنجیده شده و با توجه به امتیاز تأثیرگذاری و تأثیرپذیری آن‌­ها، مهم‌­ترین و کلیدی­‌ترین آن‌­ها تبیین شدند. نتایج بیانگر آن بود که افزایش رخدادهای طبیعی (همچون گردوغبار، طوفان­‌های نمکی، خشک‌سالی و زلزله)، کاهش منابع آبی، از بین رفتن اراضی کشاورزی و باغی، کاهش تولیدات کشاورزی، نابسامانی­‌های اجتماعی، فرسایش خاک و کاهش حاصل‌خیزی آن، تخریب پوشش گیاهی، تضعیف مشاغل مرتبط با کشاورزی، نمایان ساختن عدم همکاری بین نهادی در باب مواجهه با بحران‌­ها، افزایش بیکاری و تشدید جابجایی‌­های جمعیتی از مهم‌­ترین پیامدهای بیابان‌­زایی دریاچه بر شهرهای حوضه آبریز آن در استان آذربایجان غربی به شمار می­روند. درنتیجه، یافته­‌ها بر ضرورت اتخاذ راهکارهای میان‌بخشی، مبتنی بر شواهد و متناسب با بافت محلی تأکید دارند تا تاب‌آوری شهری و معیشتی جوامع حوضه آبریز دریاچه ارتقا یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

A commentary on the consequences of desertification in urban settlements with a foresight approach: A case study of the Lake Urmia catchment area in West Azerbaijan Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Parisa Hamedani 1
  • Zahra Sadat Saeideh Zarabadi 2
  • Arash Vahid 1
  • Esmaeil Shieh 3
1 Department of Urban Planning, W.T.C, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Department of Urban Development, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Department of Urban Planning, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Today, desertification stands as one of the most pressing socio-economic and environmental challenges facing humanity, imposing profound consequences on urban settlements. This phenomenon is increasingly prevalent across Iran, with the Lake Urmia basin serving as a prominent locus of these compounding environmental pressures. Meanwhile, foresight, as a strategic tool for predicting and analyzing trends and possible consequences in various social, economic, and environmental fields, can be a powerful tool for understanding and managing the consequences of this crisis in urban settlements and help create effective policies and programs to deal with it. For this purpose, the present study was conducted with a foresight approach to explain the consequences of Lake Urmia desertification on the cities of its catchment area in West Azerbaijan Province. In this descriptive-analytical study, first, using the snowball sampling method and questioning 34 specialists, experts, and elites related to the content of this study, the consequences of the drying process of this lake on the cities under study were identified. Then, within the framework of the cross-impact matrix and in the MICMAC software, the direct and indirect influence and dependence of each of these consequences were measured, and according to their scores, the most important and key consequences were explained. The results indicated that the increase in natural events (such as dust, salt storms, drought, earthquakes, etc.), reduction in water resources, loss of agricultural and garden lands, reduction in agricultural production, social unrest, soil erosion and reduction in its fertility, destruction of vegetation, weakening of agriculture-related jobs, lack of inter-institutional cooperation in dealing with crises, increased unemployment and intensified population displacement are among the most important consequences of desertification of the lake on the cities of its catchment area in West Azerbaijan Province. As a result, the findings emphasize the need to adopt cross-sectoral, evidence-based, and locally appropriate solutions to enhance the urban and livelihood resilience of the lake catchment communities.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Desertification
  • Climate Change
  • Foresight
  • MICMAC Software
  • West Azerbaijan Province

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