آینده‌پژوهی شهر ایرانی- اسلامی تبریز با استفاده از تحلیل ساختاری (MICMAC) و سناریونگاری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه آموزشی برنامه‌ریزی شهری ، دانشکده برنامه‌ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز ، تبریز، ایران.

2 دانشجوی دکتری گروه آموزشی برنامه‌ریزی شهری ، دانشکده برنامه‌ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز ، تبریز، ایران.

چکیده

شهر تبریز به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین قطب سیاسی، اقتصادی و فرهنگی شمال‌غرب ایران، در سال‌های اخیر با چالش‌های فزاینده‌ای در حوزه مدیریت شهری و برنامه‌ریزی آینده‌محور مواجه شده است. در شرایطی که تحولات سریع اجتماعی، اقتصادی، فناورانه و زیست‌محیطی موجب افزایش عدم‌قطعیت‌ها در مسیر توسعه شهری می‌شود، بهره‌گیری از رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی می‌تواند زمینه شناسایی پیشران‌های اثرگذار و طراحی سناریوهای واقع‌بینانه برای هدایت آینده شهر را فراهم آورد. این پژوهش در چارچوب پارادایم پوزیتیویستی و با رویکرد کمی انجام شده و با ترکیب روش دلفی و تحلیل ساختاری متقاطع (MICMAC)، به شناسایی و تحلیل روابط میان عوامل مؤثر بر آینده شهر تبریز پرداخته است. بر اساس نظر خبرگان، ۱۷ متغیر کلیدی استخراج و در قالب ماتریس ۱۷×۱۷ مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج MICMAC نشان می‌دهد که ساختار سیستم شهری تبریز از پویایی و ناپایداری بالایی برخوردار است و شدت تعامل میان متغیرها قابل‌توجه می‌باشد. همچنین متغیرهای «حکمرانی شهری»، «الگوی توسعه شهری»، «اقتصاد شهری»، «نوآوری»، «فناوری‌های هوشمند (ICT)» و «اصول اسلامی» در ناحیه اثرگذاری و اثرپذیری بالا قرار گرفتند و به‌عنوان پیشران‌های راهبردی آینده تبریز شناسایی شدند. این پیشران‌ها بیشترین نقش را در تغییر وضعیت سیستم داشته و جهت‌گیری کلان سناریوهای آینده را تعیین می‌کنند. در ادامه، با استفاده از نرم‌افزار Scenario Wizard سه سناریوی قوی، ضعیف و باورکردنی تدوین گردید و سناریوی سازگار به‌عنوان سناریوی مطلوب انتخاب شد. نتایج سناریونگاری نشان می‌دهد که تحقق آینده‌ای پایدار و مطلوب برای تبریز در گرو تقویت حکمرانی کارآمد، توسعه زیرساخت‌های فناورانه، رشد اقتصاد شهری، ارتقای ظرفیت‌های نوآورانه و توجه هم‌زمان به ساختارهای اجتماعی و فرهنگی است. این یافته‌ها می‌تواند مبنای تدوین سیاست‌های آینده‌نگر و برنامه‌ریزی شهری کارآمد در راستای دستیابی به الگوی توسعه پایدار شهر تبریز قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Futures studies of the Iranian–Islamic city of Tabriz using structural analysis (MICMAC) and scenario planning

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hadi Hakimi 1
  • Masoumeh Adami 2
1 Associate Professor, Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
2 PhD Candidate, Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Tabriz, as the most significant political, economic, and cultural hub in northwestern Iran, has in recent years encountered growing challenges in the fields of urban management and future-oriented planning. In a context where rapid social, economic, technological, and environmental transformations have intensified uncertainties in urban development, adopting a futures studies approach can provide an effective basis for identifying influential drivers and designing realistic scenarios to guide the city's future. This study was conducted within a positivist paradigm and through a quantitative approach, employing a combination of the Delphi method and structural cross-impact analysis (MICMAC) to identify and analyze the relationships among the factors shaping the future of Tabriz. Based on expert opinions, 17 key variables were extracted and evaluated using a 17×17 matrix. The MICMAC results indicate that the urban system of Tabriz exhibits high dynamism and instability, with considerable interactions among the variables. Moreover, the variables of urban governance, urban development pattern, urban economy, innovation, smart technologies (ICT), and Islamic principles were located in the high influence–high dependence quadrant and identified as the strategic drivers of Tabriz’s future. These drivers play the most significant role in altering the system’s state and shape the overarching direction of future scenarios. Subsequently, using Scenario Wizard software, three strong, weak, and plausible scenarios were developed, and the compatible scenario was selected as the preferred one. The scenario analysis reveals that achieving a sustainable and desirable future for Tabriz depends on strengthening effective governance, expanding technological infrastructure, enhancing the urban economy, improving innovative capacities, and simultaneously reinforcing social and cultural structures. These findings can serve as a basis for developing forward-looking urban policies and effective planning strategies aimed at realizing a sustainable development model for the city of Tabriz.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Futures Studies
  • Iranian-Islamic Cities
  • MICMAC
  • Scenario Planning
  • Sustainable Development
  • Tabriz

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جغرافیا و آینده پژوهی منطقه‌ای
دوره 4، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 15
پاییز
آذر 1405
صفحه 61-81

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