Mahneshan region, due to the dominance of an extractive economy and the concentration of activities in the mining sector, faces challenges such as spatial instability, limited economic diversification, and structural vulnerability. The present study was conducted within the framework of the futures studies paradigm with the aim of identifying key driving forces and formulating plausible scenarios for the spatial development of this region. In terms of purpose, the research is applied, and in terms of nature and method, it is descriptive–analytical. The required data were collected through two complementary approaches: documentary and library studies, and an expert survey. In the documentary phase, theoretical literature, upstream policy documents, and national and provincial development plans were reviewed. In the survey phase, the views of 14 experts were gathered using purposive judgmental sampling. The data collection instrument was a two-round questionnaire and its validity and reliability were confirmed. The analytical process was organized into four steps: extracting the initial list of driving forces, screening and refining variables based on expert judgment, prioritizing critical uncertainties using the multi-criteria decision-making model TOPSIS, and finally developing scenarios through Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) analysis using ScenarioWizard software. The results led to the extraction of 18 initial scenarios, which were classified into four scenario groups based on internal consistency and the structure of cross-impacts; each group represents a mother scenario that reflects a broad image of Mahneshan’s spatial future. Among them, the “regenerative multifunctional development” scenario was identified as the most desirable condition, emphasizing economic diversification, improved local governance, the integration of mining activities with tourism and rural potentials, and spatial sustainability.