آینده‌پژوهی نظام سکونتگاهی در مناطق مرزی (نمونه موردی: استان کرمانشاه)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد آمایش سرزمین، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

در کشور ایران، مناطق مرزی در سطح بسیار پایین‌­تر از نواحی داخلی به لحاظ توسعه قرار دارند؛ بنابراین، حل این مشکلات، نیازمند به‌کارگیری رویکردهایی است که با شناخت درست از گذشته و شناسایی قابلیت‌­های موجود، در جهت ترسیم آینده‌­ی مطلوب گام بردارد. مطالعات آینده­‌پژوهی به‌عنوان یک رویکرد نوین، با تجزیه‌وتحلیل منابع موجود می‌­تواند نقش اساسی در شکل­‌دهی به آینده ایفا کند. مقاله­‌ی حاضر با هدف شناسایی نیروهای پیشران در وضعیت سکونتگاهی استان کرمانشاه برای افق 25 سال آینده انجام شده است. این پژوهش از لحاظ هدف، کاربردی و به لحاظ روش، توصیفی­­_تحلیلی می‌­باشد. جهت تحلیل پرسشنامه و ماتریس اثرات متقاطع از نرم‌افزار میک مک(MicMac)  استفاده‌شده است. نتایج حاصل از تحقیق نشان می­‌دهد که نیروهای پیشران مؤثر بر وضعیت آینده سکونت­گاهی استان کرمانشاه شامل 21 مورد هستند که با نظرسنجی از خبرگان به‌دست‌آمده است، تأثیرگذارترین متغیرها در آینده نظام سکونت­گاهی استان کرمانشاه شامل متغیرهایی هستند که نگرش در این متغیرها می‌تواند موجب تغییر در آرایش شبکه‌­های سکونت­گاهی استان شود. متغیرهای، مجاورت با مرز بین ­المللی، شبکه حمل‌ونقل ریلی و جاده‌­ای، وجود بازارچه‌­های مرزی در دسته متغیرهای با تأثیرگذاری بالا قرارگرفته‌­اند. گروهی دیگر از متغیرها، با عنوان متغیرهای تأثیرپذیر شناسایی شده‌­اند که شامل وضعیت اشتغال در مناطق مرزی و فواصل بین سکونت­گاه­‌ها می­‌باشد. این نوع از متغیرها تأثیرگذاری چندانی ندارند ولی تأثیر­پذیری بالایی دارند اما تأثیرگذاری آن­ها در وضعیت­‌های آینده بستگی به نحوه عمل دیگر متغیرها دارد. همچنین پنج وضعیت محتمل برای آینده نظام سکونتی استان شناسایی‌شده که احتمال وقوع هرکدام بستگی به توجه یا عدم توجه به هر یک از پیشران­‌ها دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Future study of residential system in border area (Case study: Kermanshah province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sayyed Abbas Rajaei 1
  • Sayyed Ali Badri 1
  • Hosein Mansourian 1
  • Mahdi Babaei 2
1 Associate Professor, Department of Human Geography and Planning, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Master of Spatial Planning, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

In Iran, the border areas are at a much lower level than the interior areas in terms of their development. Solving these problems requires the use of approaches that take steps towards a desirable future by knowing the past and identifying the existing capabilities. Futuristic studies as a new approach can play a significant role in shaping the future by analyzing the existing resources. This study is done to identify the major factors influencing these residential areas in the next 25 years. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. MicMac software was used to analyze the questionnaire and cross-effects matrix. The results of the study show that there are 21 important factors that influence the future housing situation in Kermanshah province. The most influential variables for the future of the housing system of Kermanshah province are the variables whose alteration can cause a change in the arrangement of housing networks in the province. Variables such as proximity to the international border, rail and road transportation network, and border markets are highly influential ones. Five possible situations for the future of the province's housing system were also identified, with the likelihood of each of these situations depending on the attention or lack of attention to each of the variables.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Future Study
  • Kermanshah
  • Border
  • Residential System
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