تحلیل ساختاری پیشران‌های مؤثر بر آسیب‌های اجتماعی ناشی از شیوع بیماری‌های واگیردار در کلان‌شهرهای ایران (موردمطالعه: کلان‌شهر اهواز)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران.

چکیده

طی دو قرن گذشته شهرها به‌سرعت در سراسر جهان تکثیر و گسترش‌یافته‌اند. شهرها منبع خلاقیت و فناوری و هم موتورهایی برای توسعه اقتصادی هستند. بااین‌حال، آن‌ها همچنین منبع فقر، نابرابری و خطرات بهداشتی محیط زیستی هستند. رشد سریع و برنامه‌ریزی نشده شهری اغلب با فقر، تخریب محیط‌زیست و تقاضای خدمات شهری همراه است که از ظرفیت خدمات‌دهی بالاتر می‌رود. این شرایط، سلامت انسان را در معرض خطر قرار می‌دهد. پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی، از حیث روش پیمایشی در سطح اکتشافی و مبتنی بر رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی صورت گرفته است. در این مطالعه ما به دنبال آنیم با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی به شناسایی عوامل مؤثر کلیدی محیط‌های شهری ایران هنگام مواجهه با بیماری‌های واگیردار و کووید-19 بپردازیم. مولفه‌های کلیدی با روش دلفی مشخص و سپس این عوامل بر اساس میزان اهمیت و عدم قطعیت، اولویت‌بندی و حیاتی‌ترین عوامل مشخص‌شده است. در این روند، تعداد 33 متغیر کلی شناسایی شدند. نتایج حاکی از آن است که متغیرهای فقر، تورم، حاشیه‌نشینی، کمبود درآمد، نابرابری اجتماعی، نابرابری درآمدی، امنیت، مهاجرت، اشتغال، بیکاری در کلان‌شهر اهواز به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین متغیرهای مؤثر آسیب‌های اجتماعی بر شیوع بیماری‌های واگیردار و کرونا شناسایی شدند. در نهایت پیشنهادهایی برای بهبود وضعیت آسیب‌های اجتماعی ناشی از بیماری‌های واگیردار ارائه‌شده که یکی از مهم‌ترین این پیشنهادها کمک مسئولین شهری برای جذب و توزیع امکانات بهداشتی و درمانی بخصوص در مناطق محروم و توزیع عادلانه امکانات در سطح این کلان‌شهر می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Structural analysis of drivers affecting social damage caused by the spread of infectious diseases in Iranian metropolises (Case study: Ahvaz metropolis)

نویسنده [English]

  • Mohammad Reza Amiri Fahliani
PhD in Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Over the past two centuries, cities have grown rapidly around the world. Cities are a source of creativity and technology and are the engines for economic growth. However, they are also a source of poverty, inequality and environmental health risks. The urban population has long been a place for the production and spread of infectious diseases. Also, rapid and often unplanned urban growth is often associated with poverty, environmental degradation, and population demand that exceed service capacity. These conditions endanger human health. In terms of applied purpose, the present study has been conducted in terms of survey method at the exploratory level and based on the future research approach. In this study, we aim to identify the key effective factors of Iran's urban environments when dealing with infectious diseases and COVID-19 and scenario building with a future research approach. The propulsive forces are determined by the Delphi method, and then these factors are determined based on the degree of importance and uncertainty, prioritization, and software (Micmac) is used to write possible scenarios. In the scenario stage, 39 general variables were identified. The results indicate that the variables of poverty, inflation, marginalization, lack of income, social inequality, income inequality, security, migration, employment, and unemployment in the metropolis of Ahvaz are the most important and effective variables of social harm on the prevalence of infectious diseases and coronary heart disease.  Finally, suggestions have been made to improve the situation of social damage caused by infectious diseases, and one of the most important implications is for city officials to fairly attract and distribute health and treatment facilities, especially in deprived areas.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Futurology Studies
  • Scenario Planning
  • Social Injuries
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Ahvaz Metropolis
  1. AfkhamiAghda M, Maleksabet H, Mehrparvar H, Falahati M, Laeh M. Investigating the Relationship between Social Damages and the Quality of Life in Yazd City. JSSU 2016; 24 (3) :241-250.URL: http://jssu.ssu.ac.ir/article-1-3295-fa.html. [In Persian]  

    Amanpour, S., & Amiri Fahliani, M. R. (2015). Analysis on of the Interaction Problems Migrants in the Two Rural and Urban Communities: A Case Study of Rural Migrants City of Nurabad Mamasani. Community Development (Rural and Urban), 7(2), 259-276. doi: 10.22059/jrd.2015.60563. [In Persian]  

    Amanpour, S., Maleki, S., Safaeepour, M., & Amiri Fahlyiani, M. R. (2019). Compilation of scenarios and providing effective strategies for future social resilience (Case study: Ahwaz metropolis). Journal of Urban Social Geography, 6(2), 255-273. doi: 10.22103/JUSG.2019.2000. [In Persian]  

    amiri fahlyiani, M. R., rezaee, A., & riyahi, M. (2022). Future scenarios of the effects of the spatial and functional structure of Iran's metropolitan areas on the growth and prevalence of infectious diseases and COVID-19 (case study; Ahvaz metropolis). Journal of Environmental Studies, 48(2), 153-178. doi: 10.22059/jes.2021.305306.1008036. [In Persian]  

    Borasi G, Zardini M. 2012 Imperfect health: the medicalization of architecture. Montreal, Canada: Canadian Centre for Architecture. https://www.cca.qc.ca/en/events/3178/imperfect-health-the-medicalization-of-architecture

    Brockerhoff M, Brennan E.(1998), The poverty of cities in developing regions. Popul  Dev Rev; 24: 75–114. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2808123

    Brooks, S.K., Webster, R.K., Smith, L.E., Woodland, L., Wessely, S., Greenberg, N., Rubin, G.J., 2020. The psychological impact of quarantine and how to reduce it: rapid review of the evidence. The Lancet. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30460-8

    Campbell M. 2012 Strange bedfellows: modernism and tuberculosis. In Imperfect health: the medicalization of architecture (eds G Borasi, M Zardini), pp. 133–151. Montreal, Canada: Canadian Centre for Architecture. https://books.google.com/books/about/Imperfect_Health.html?id=4eJTYknpZbkC

    Chakraborty, Indranil & Maity, Prasenjit,(2020), COVID -19 Outbreak: Migration, effects on society, global environment and prevention, Science of the Total Environment, doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138882

    Cristina Schneider, Maria & Machado, Gustavo,(2018), Environmental and socioeconomic drivers in infectious disease, The Lancet Planetary Health Volume 2, Issue 5, Pages e198-e199, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30069-X

    Epidemiology, 159: 184-191

    Foster, Susan. A,(1999), The geography of behaviour: an evolutionary perspective, Elsevier Science. All rights reserved. PII: S0169-5347(98)01577-8, DOI: 10.1016/s0169-5347(98)01577-8

    Gold, John R.(2019), ehavioural geography, nternational Encyclopedia of Human Geography, second edition, volume 1., https://www.academia.edu/39980135/Behavioral_Geography

    Hamlin C, Sheard S. 1998 Revolutions in public health: 1848, and 1998? Br. Med. J. 317, 587–591.(doi:10.1136/bmj.317.7158.587)

    Hashemi, S,. H, Pouraminzad, S and Peyman Talab Tessim, Babak, (2008), Citizen Rights and Social Justice, Management and Development Process Quarterly, Year 22, Number 1 (71 series, Spring and Summer) URL: http://jmdp.ir/article-1-2382-fa.html. [In Persian]  

    Horby, Peter, Quang Thai, Pham, Hens, Niel, Thi Thu Yen,Nguyen,(2011), Social Contact Patterns in Vietnam and Implications for the Control of Infectious Diseases, : Cesar Munayco, Direccio´n General de Epidemiologı´a, Peru, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0016965

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/managing stress-anxiety.html 

    Imani Jajermi, Hossein. (2019). Social consequences of the spread of the corona virus in Iranian society. Social Impact Assessment, Social Impact Assessment Journal (Special Letter on the Consequences of the Corona Virus-Covid 19 Outbreak), 87-103. https://www.sid.ir/paper/524157/fa [In Persian]  

    Kalateh Sadati, A, Lankarani, , M H. & Bagheri Lankarani, K.,(2020), Risk Society, Global Vulnerability and Fragile Resilience; Sociological View on the Coronavirus Outbreak, Shiraz E-Medical Journal, doi: 10.5812/semj.102263

    Karbasi Salmasi, A., & Kargar, B. (2023). Explaining the social dimensions of livability in informal settlements (Case study: Koshtargah neighborhood). Geography and Regional Future Studies1(2), 17-32. doi: 10.30466/grfs.2023.54897.1019  [In Persian]  

    Kim, S., Symons, M. and Popkin, B.M. (2004). Contrasting socioeconomic  profiles

    Maher, A, (2004), examining the relationship between poverty and health in Iran, Social Welfare Scientific Quarterly, Year 5, Number 18. https://refahj.uswr.ac.ir/article-1-1935-fa.pdf [In Persian]

    Makipour, Z,. Rabbani, A., (2012), Investigating the economic causes of social harms, strategic researches on security and social order, second year, number 6, number two. https://ssoss.ui.ac.ir/article_17095.html [In Persian]  

    Mohammadzadeh Y, Taghizadeh N, Nazariyan E. Income Inequality, Poverty and Public Health. payavard 2017; 11 (2) :220-234,URL: http://payavard.tums.ac.ir/article-1-6239-fa.html. [In Persian]  

    Mohler, George, Carter, Jremy & Raje, Rajeev(2018), Improving social harm indices with a modulated Hawkes process, International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.01.006

    Motamedi H. (2007). To Make Priority of Social Problems in Iran. refahj. 6(24), 327-348.

    Mousavi, M., Kabiri, A., Bayramzadeh, N., & Kamel Nia, R. (2023). Assessment of Vulnerability and Societal Security Level in Informal Settlements (Case study: Koshtargah neighborhood-Urmia). Societal Security Studies13(72), 151-176. doi: 10.22034/sss.2023.1266753.1825 [In Persian]  

    Murphy M. 2015. In search of the water pump: architecture and cholera. Harvard Des. Mag. 40,148–153. https://www.harvarddesignmagazine.org/articles/in-search-of-the-water-pump-architecture-and-cholera/

    Pinter-Wollman, Noa,  Jelic, Andrea, M. Wells, Nancy,(2018), The impact of the built environment on health behaviours and disease transmission in social systems, Published by the Royal Society.  https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2017.0245

    related to healthier lifestyles in China and the United States. American Journal of

    Saberifar, Rostam, (2008), Analytical study of marginalization in Birjand city (case of study: workers area), Geographical Research Quarterly, Volume 24, Number 1 https://www.sid.ir/paper/30009/fa. [In Persian]  

    Schrank S, Ekici D).2016) Healing spaces, modern architecture, and the body. Oxford, UK: Routledge.https://www.routledge.com/Healing-Spaces-Modern-Architecture-and-the-Body/Schrank-Ekici/p/book/9781138588691

    Sotoudeh, H., (2015), Social Injuries (Sociology of Deviances), Tehran, Avai Noor. https://www.adinehbook.com/gp/product/9645819415. [In Persian]  

    1. World Urbanization prospects: the 2009 revision. March, 2010. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index. htm(accessed Nov 18, 2010).

    URL: http://refahj.uswr.ac.ir/article-1-2138-fa.html. [In Persian]  

    Wilkinson FIG.(1986) Socio-economic differences in mortality: interpreting the data on size and trends, In FIG Wilkinson (ed.) Class and Health Tavistock Publications, London . https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003284673-1/socio-economic-differences-mortality-wilkinson

    Wilkinson RG.(1989), Class mortality differentials, income distribution and trends in poverty 1921-1981, J Soc P01 18(3):307-335.  DOI: 10.1017/s0047279400017591

    www.givingcompass.org/article/pandemics-are-also-an-urban-planning-problem/

    Yahivi, Dizj, Jafar, Mohammadzadeh, Yusuf, Hekmati, Samad and Yagoubi, Farid Hossein, (2017), the relationship between economic and social factors and social harms in selected countries with the approach of generalized moments, Scientific Quarterly of Social Welfare, 18th year, number 68. http://refahj.uswr.ac.ir/article-1-3182-fa.html.[In Persian]